THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INFLATION, ECONOMIC GROWTH AND BUDGET DEFICIT IN TÜRKİYE

Merve Esra Gülcemal

Makale detayları

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INFLATION, ECONOMIC GROWTH AND BUDGET DEFICIT IN TÜRKİYE

Yazarlar:

Merve Esra Gülcemal

Yayıncı:

Kütahya Dumlupinar University

Ana Başlıklar:

Ekonometri Teorisi | Ekonomik Modeller ve Öngörü

Dergi:

Dumlupınar Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi Issue 14, pp.91-102

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

12/2024

Belge Dili:

İngilizce

Document ID (Org No.):

2001336888

pISSN:

2791-9579

Anahtar kelimeler:

Özet:

 Like in the past, inflation remains one of the most significant concepts affecting the welfare levels of countries today. Especially during economic crises, the price instability and high inflation rates experienced have compelled countries to work in this area. The characteristics of variables related to inflation have been studied, and many theories have emerged. Just as there are many macroeconomic factors affecting inflation, there are also macroeconomic components affected by inflation. It is crucial to determine the direction of the relationship between economic variables, as there can be both one-way and two-way relationships among these components. Policymakers aim to keep inflation levels as low as possible by shaping their policies according to these relationships. This way, countries strive to achieve minimal inflation, fostering economic growth and maintaining budget balance. Examining the relationship between inflation, economic growth, and budget deficits is essential not only for price stability but also for reducing external dependency and positively influencing growth. This study utilizes annual inflation, budget deficit, and economic growth data for Turkey from 1990 to 2022 to analyze the relationships among these variables using econometric methods. In accordance to the results of the causality analysis, a unidirectional causality from growth to inflation and from inflation to budget deficit has been identified. This suggests that growth triggers inflation, and inflation, in turn, triggers budget deficits.

 Like in the past, inflation remains one of the most significant concepts affecting the welfare levels of countries today. Especially during economic crises, the price instability and high inflation rates experienced have compelled countries to work in this area. The characteristics of variables related to inflation have been studied, and many theories have emerged. Just as there are many macroeconomic factors affecting inflation, there are also macroeconomic components affected by inflation. It is crucial to determine the direction of the relationship between economic variables, as there can be both one-way and two-way relationships among these components. Policymakers aim to keep inflation levels as low as possible by shaping their policies according to these relationships. This way, countries strive to achieve minimal inflation, fostering economic growth and maintaining budget balance. Examining the relationship between inflation, economic growth, and budget deficits is essential not only for price stability but also for reducing external dependency and positively influencing growth. This study utilizes annual inflation, budget deficit, and economic growth data for Turkey from 1990 to 2022 to analyze the relationships among these variables using econometric methods. In accordance to the results of the causality analysis, a unidirectional causality from growth to inflation and from inflation to budget deficit has been identified. This suggests that growth triggers inflation, and inflation, in turn, triggers budget deficits.

 Like in the past, inflation remains one of the most significant concepts affecting the welfare levels of countries today. Especially during economic crises, the price instability and high inflation rates experienced have compelled countries to work in this area. The characteristics of variables related to inflation have been studied, and many theories have emerged. Just as there are many macroeconomic factors affecting inflation, there are also macroeconomic components affected by inflation. It is crucial to determine the direction of the relationship between economic variables, as there can be both one-way and two-way relationships among these components. Policymakers aim to keep inflation levels as low as possible by shaping their policies according to these relationships. This way, countries strive to achieve minimal inflation, fostering economic growth and maintaining budget balance. Examining the relationship between inflation, economic growth, and budget deficits is essential not only for price stability but also for reducing external dependency and positively influencing growth. This study utilizes annual inflation, budget deficit, and economic growth data for Turkey from 1990 to 2022 to analyze the relationships among these variables using econometric methods. In accordance to the results of the causality analysis, a unidirectional causality from growth to inflation and from inflation to budget deficit has been identified. This suggests that growth triggers inflation, and inflation, in turn, triggers budget deficits.

 Geçmişte olduğu gibi günümüzde de enflasyon, ülkelerin refah seviyelerini etkileyen en önemli kavramlardan biri olmuştur. Özellikle ekonomik buhran döneminde hissedilen fiyat istikrarsızlığı ve yüksek enflasyon oranları, ülkeleri bu alanda çalışmaya zorlamış, enflasyon ile ilişkili değişkenlerin karakteristiği araştırılmış ve ortaya pek çok teori atılmıştır. Ekonomide enflasyonu etkileyen pek çok makroekonomik faktörler olduğu kadar enflasyondan etkilenen makro iktisadi bileşenler de vardır. Bu bileşenler arasında tek yönlü bir ilişki olduğu gibi çift yönlü bir ilişki de olabileceği için iktisadi değişkenler arasındaki ilişkinin yönünü belirlemek önem arz etmektedir. Karar vericiler politikalarını bu ilişkilerin yönüne göre oluşturarak enflasyon seviyesini mümkün olduğunca minimum seviyede tutmak isterler. Bu sayede ülkeler minimum enflasyon seviyesine ulaşarak hem ülke ekonomisinde büyümeyi hem de bütçe dengesini sağlamaya çalışırlar. Enflasyon, iktisadi büyüme ve bütçe açığı arasındaki ilişkinin incelenmesi sadece fiyat istikrarın sağlanmak için değil, aynı zamanda ekonomide dışa bağımlılığı azaltmak ve büyümeyi olumlu yönde etkilemek adına oldukça önemlidir. Bu çalışmada Türkiyenin 1990-2022 yıllarına ait yıllık enflasyon, bütçe açığı ve ekonomik büyüme verileri kullanılarak değişkenler arasındaki ilişkiler ekonometrik yöntemler kullanılarak incelenmiştir. Çalışmanın nedensellik analizi sonuçları, büyümeden enflasyona doğru tek yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi bulunduğunu, ayrıca enflasyondan bütçe açığına doğru tek yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Buna göre, büyümenin enflasyonu ve enflasyonun da bütçe açığını tetiklediği yorumu yapılabilir.

Makale detayları

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INFLATION, ECONOMIC GROWTH AND BUDGET DEFICIT IN TÜRKİYE

Yazarlar:

Merve Esra Gülcemal

Yayıncı:

Kütahya Dumlupinar University

Ana Başlıklar:

Ekonometri Teorisi | Ekonomik Modeller ve Öngörü

Dergi:

Dumlupınar Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi Issue 14, pp.91-102

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

12/2024

Belge Dili:

İngilizce

Document ID (Org No.):

2001336888

pISSN:

2791-9579

Inflation

Economic Growth

Budget DeficitEnflasyon

Ekonomik Büyüme

Bütçe Açığı

Sayı

Makale detayları

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INFLATION, ECONOMIC GROWTH AND BUDGET DEFICIT IN TÜRKİYE

Yazarlar: Merve Esra Gülcemal

Yayıncı: Kütahya Dumlupinar University

Ana Başlıklar: Ekonometri Teorisi | Ekonomik Modeller ve Öngörü

Dergi: Dumlupınar Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi Issue 14, pp.91-102

Belge Tipi: Makale

Yayın Tarihi: 12/2024

Belge Dili: İngilizce

Document ID (Org No.): 2001336888

pISSN: 2791-9579

Inflation

Economic Growth

Budget DeficitEnflasyon

Ekonomik Büyüme

Bütçe Açığı

Sayı

Yazarlar:

Merve Esra Gülcemal

Yayıncı:

Kütahya Dumlupinar University

Ana Başlıklar:

Ekonometri Teorisi | Ekonomik Modeller ve Öngörü

Dergi:

Dumlupınar Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi Issue 14, pp.91-102

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

12/2024

Belge Dili:

İngilizce

Document ID (Org No.):

2001336888

pISSN:

2791-9579