Influence of Anti-Immigration Attitudes on Voter Behavior and Its Limits: Turkish Politics and the Case of the Victory Party

Giray Gerim

Makale detayları

Influence of Anti-Immigration Attitudes on Voter Behavior and Its Limits: Turkish Politics and the Case of the Victory Party

Yazarlar:

Giray Gerim

Yayıncı:

Marmara University

Ana Başlıklar:

Siyaset Bilimi (Diğer)

Dergi:

Marmara Üniversitesi Siyasal Bilimler Dergisi Vol.13 Issue 1, pp.181-199

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

3/2025

Belge Dili:

İngilizce

Document ID (Org No.):

2001344739

pISSN:

2147-6926

Anahtar kelimeler:

Özet:

 Türkiye experienced a significant influx of migrants from Syria following the onset of the civil conflict in that country in 2011, subsequently accompanied by an additional wave of migration from other politically unstable regions over the past decade. Research shows that constituents of nearly all political factions within Turkish politics exhibit a distinctly negative disposition towards this surge of immigrants. While various political figures have articulated grievances within Turkish society concerning this matter to a certain degree, the inaugural explicitly anti-immigration political entity, the Victory Party Zafer Partisi - ZP, was founded in August 2021. Considering both the surveys assessing the views of Turkish society regarding refugees and immigrants and the electoral percentages attained by anti-immigration political parties in European countries experiencing immigration, the electoral achievement of this party has been markedly constrained, attaining only 2.23 in the general elections of May 2023 and 2.57 in the local elections of March 2024. This article problematizes the relative electoral underperformance of the party. Conducting a long-term analysis of Turkish politics with the process tracing methodology, it argues that the cleavages that have been of key importance in the shaping of Turkish party politics and the polarization that has been built upon them, especially during the AK Party governments, have limited the partys electoral support by preventing immigration from being seen as a primary concern by the voters.

 Türkiye experienced a significant influx of migrants from Syria following the onset of the civil conflict in that country in 2011, subsequently accompanied by an additional wave of migration from other politically unstable regions over the past decade. Research shows that constituents of nearly all political factions within Turkish politics exhibit a distinctly negative disposition towards this surge of immigrants. While various political figures have articulated grievances within Turkish society concerning this matter to a certain degree, the inaugural explicitly anti-immigration political entity, the Victory Party Zafer Partisi - ZP, was founded in August 2021. Considering both the surveys assessing the views of Turkish society regarding refugees and immigrants and the electoral percentages attained by anti-immigration political parties in European countries experiencing immigration, the electoral achievement of this party has been markedly constrained, attaining only 2.23 in the general elections of May 2023 and 2.57 in the local elections of March 2024. This article problematizes the relative electoral underperformance of the party. Conducting a long-term analysis of Turkish politics with the process tracing methodology, it argues that the cleavages that have been of key importance in the shaping of Turkish party politics and the polarization that has been built upon them, especially during the AK Party governments, have limited the partys electoral support by preventing immigration from being seen as a primary concern by the voters.

 Türkiye experienced a significant influx of migrants from Syria following the onset of the civil conflict in that country in 2011, subsequently accompanied by an additional wave of migration from other politically unstable regions over the past decade. Research shows that constituents of nearly all political factions within Turkish politics exhibit a distinctly negative disposition towards this surge of immigrants. While various political figures have articulated grievances within Turkish society concerning this matter to a certain degree, the inaugural explicitly anti-immigration political entity, the Victory Party Zafer Partisi - ZP, was founded in August 2021. Considering both the surveys assessing the views of Turkish society regarding refugees and immigrants and the electoral percentages attained by anti-immigration political parties in European countries experiencing immigration, the electoral achievement of this party has been markedly constrained, attaining only 2.23 in the general elections of May 2023 and 2.57 in the local elections of March 2024. This article problematizes the relative electoral underperformance of the party. Conducting a long-term analysis of Turkish politics with the process tracing methodology, it argues that the cleavages that have been of key importance in the shaping of Turkish party politics and the polarization that has been built upon them, especially during the AK Party governments, have limited the partys electoral support by preventing immigration from being seen as a primary concern by the voters.

 Türkiye, 2011de ülkedeki iç çatışmanın başlamasının ardından Suriyeden önemli bir göçmen akınının hedefi oldu ve bunu son on yılda diğer istikrarsız bölgelerden gelen ek bir göç dalgası izledi. Araştırmalar, Türk siyasetindeki neredeyse tüm siyasi grupların seçmenlerinin bu göçmen dalgasına karşı belirgin bir şekilde olumsuz bir eğilim sergilediğini göstermektedir. Bu tarihe dek çeşitli siyasi figürler belli bir ölçüde toplumsal şikâyetleri dile getirmiş olsalar da, göç karşıtlığını siyasetinin merkezine oturtan ilk siyasi aktör olan Zafer Partisi ZP Ağustos 2021de kuruldu. Hem Türk toplumunun mülteciler ve göçmenler konusundaki görüşlerini değerlendiren anketler hem de yoğun göç alan Avrupa ülkelerinde göç karşıtı siyasi partilerin elde ettiği seçim yüzdeleri göz önüne alındığında, Zafer partisinin seçim başarısı belirgin şekilde sınırlı kalmış; parti, Mayıs 2023 genel seçimlerinde sadece 2,23 ve Mart 2024 yerel seçimlerinde 2,57 oy alabilmiştir. Bu çalışma, partinin görece düşük seçim performansını ele almaktadır. Süreç izleme metodolojisiyle Türk siyasetinin uzun vadeli analizini yapan çalışma, Türk parti siyasetinin şekillenmesinde kilit öneme sahip olan ayrışmaların ve özellikle AK Parti iktidarları döneminde bunlar üzerine inşa edilen kutuplaşmanın, göçün seçmenler tarafından temel bir kaygı olarak görülmesini engelleyerek partinin seçmen desteğini sınırladığını ileri sürmektedir.

Makale detayları

Influence of Anti-Immigration Attitudes on Voter Behavior and Its Limits: Turkish Politics and the Case of the Victory Party

Yazarlar:

Giray Gerim

Yayıncı:

Marmara University

Ana Başlıklar:

Siyaset Bilimi (Diğer)

Dergi:

Marmara Üniversitesi Siyasal Bilimler Dergisi Vol.13 Issue 1, pp.181-199

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

3/2025

Belge Dili:

İngilizce

Document ID (Org No.):

2001344739

pISSN:

2147-6926

anti-immigration parties

anti-immigration politics

Zafer partisi (Victory Party)

Turkish nationalism

anti-refugee attitudesgöç karşıtı partiler

mülteci karşıtı tutumlar

göç karşıtı siyaset

Zafer Partisi (Victory Party)

Türk milliyetçiliği

Sayı

Makale detayları

Yazarlar: Giray Gerim

Yayıncı: Marmara University

Ana Başlıklar: Siyaset Bilimi (Diğer)

Dergi: Marmara Üniversitesi Siyasal Bilimler Dergisi Vol.13 Issue 1, pp.181-199

Belge Tipi: Makale

Yayın Tarihi: 3/2025

Belge Dili: İngilizce

Document ID (Org No.): 2001344739

pISSN: 2147-6926

Sayı

Yazarlar:

Giray Gerim

Yayıncı:

Marmara University

Ana Başlıklar:

Siyaset Bilimi (Diğer)

Dergi:

Marmara Üniversitesi Siyasal Bilimler Dergisi Vol.13 Issue 1, pp.181-199

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

3/2025

Belge Dili:

İngilizce

Document ID (Org No.):

2001344739

pISSN:

2147-6926