Basic Innovation Indicators Affecting Exports According to Technology Intensity: An Application Based on Time Series Analysis for Türkiye

Sevda Yapraklı; Fatma Kanca Kervan

Makale detayları

Basic Innovation Indicators Affecting Exports According to Technology Intensity: An Application Based on Time Series Analysis for Türkiye

Yazarlar:

Sevda Yapraklı | Fatma Kanca Kervan

Yayıncı:

Istanbul University

Ana Başlıklar:

Ekonometri (Diğer)

Dergi:

EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics Issue 41, pp.133-150

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

12/2024

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001340598

pISSN:

2651-396X

Anahtar kelimeler:

Özet:

 Analysis of the impact of innovation on exports is a significant topic in the international economics literature. Ceteris paribus, the effect of innovation on exports according to technology intensity is crucial for countries competitiveness, foreign trade earnings, and development levels. Although Turkey, as an open country, has an export-oriented production structure and active export activities, its export performance remains relatively low. This study examines the effects of key innovation indicators such as RD expenditures, patent application numbers, Information Technology Communications ICT, and Total Factor Productivity TFP on exports according to technology intensity. For this purpose, predictions were made using the Vector Auto-regression VAR model, using annual data from the period 1990-2021 for Turkey. Variance decomposition and ımpulse-response functions were employed to identify the relationships between the variables in accordance with the VAR model estimates. In the Variance Decomposition analysis, it was determined that the most effective innovation indicator in exports according to the technology intensity is RD expenditures. The impulse-response functions indicate that the main innovation indicator affecting the export of medium-high-tech products is ICT, while the indicator affecting the export of high-tech products is RD expenditures. Furthermore, it has been determined that the positive effect on future period export performance of past period performance of the export of mediumhigh-tech products is higher than the effect of the export of high-tech products. The analysis results recommend that the level of technology exports influenced by innovation and the ability to gain the international competitive advantage in Turkey is low.

 Analysis of the impact of innovation on exports is a significant topic in the international economics literature. Ceteris paribus, the effect of innovation on exports according to technology intensity is crucial for countries competitiveness, foreign trade earnings, and development levels. Although Turkey, as an open country, has an export-oriented production structure and active export activities, its export performance remains relatively low. This study examines the effects of key innovation indicators such as RD expenditures, patent application numbers, Information Technology Communications ICT, and Total Factor Productivity TFP on exports according to technology intensity. For this purpose, predictions were made using the Vector Auto-regression VAR model, using annual data from the period 1990-2021 for Turkey. Variance decomposition and ımpulse-response functions were employed to identify the relationships between the variables in accordance with the VAR model estimates. In the Variance Decomposition analysis, it was determined that the most effective innovation indicator in exports according to the technology intensity is RD expenditures. The impulse-response functions indicate that the main innovation indicator affecting the export of medium-high-tech products is ICT, while the indicator affecting the export of high-tech products is RD expenditures. Furthermore, it has been determined that the positive effect on future period export performance of past period performance of the export of mediumhigh-tech products is higher than the effect of the export of high-tech products. The analysis results recommend that the level of technology exports influenced by innovation and the ability to gain the international competitive advantage in Turkey is low.

 Analysis of the impact of innovation on exports is a significant topic in the international economics literature. Ceteris paribus, the effect of innovation on exports according to technology intensity is crucial for countries competitiveness, foreign trade earnings, and development levels. Although Turkey, as an open country, has an export-oriented production structure and active export activities, its export performance remains relatively low. This study examines the effects of key innovation indicators such as RD expenditures, patent application numbers, Information Technology Communications ICT, and Total Factor Productivity TFP on exports according to technology intensity. For this purpose, predictions were made using the Vector Auto-regression VAR model, using annual data from the period 1990-2021 for Turkey. Variance decomposition and ımpulse-response functions were employed to identify the relationships between the variables in accordance with the VAR model estimates. In the Variance Decomposition analysis, it was determined that the most effective innovation indicator in exports according to the technology intensity is RD expenditures. The impulse-response functions indicate that the main innovation indicator affecting the export of medium-high-tech products is ICT, while the indicator affecting the export of high-tech products is RD expenditures. Furthermore, it has been determined that the positive effect on future period export performance of past period performance of the export of mediumhigh-tech products is higher than the effect of the export of high-tech products. The analysis results recommend that the level of technology exports influenced by innovation and the ability to gain the international competitive advantage in Turkey is low.

 Inovasyonun ihracat üzerindeki etkisinin analizi, uluslararası iktisat literatürünün önemli konuları arasında yer almaktadır. Diğer etkileri sabitken, inovasyonun teknoloji yoğunluğuna göre ihracata etkisi, ülkelerin rekabet güçleri, dış ticaret kazançları ve gelişmişlik seviyeleri açısından kritik öneme sahiptir. Dışa açık bir ülke olan Türkiyede ihracata dayalı bir üretim yapısı ve dış satım faaliyeti olmasına rağmen, ihracat performansının düşük olduğu görülmektedir. Bu çalışmada Türkiyede Ar-Ge harcamaları, patent başvuru sayıları, Bilgi İletişim Teknolojileri BIT ve Toplam Faktör Verimliliği TFV şeklindeki temel inovasyon göstergelerinin teknoloji yoğunluğuna göre ihracat üzerindeki etkileri incelenmiştir. Bu amaç doğrultusunda Türkiye için 1990-2021 dönemine ait yıllık veriler kullanılarak Vector Autoregression VAR modeli ile tahminler yapılmıştır. VAR modeli tahminleri doğrultusunda değişkenler arasındaki ilişkiler varyans ayrıştırması ve etki-tepki fonksiyonları ile belirlenmiştir. Varyans ayrıştırma analizinde teknoloji yoğunluğuna göre ihracat üzerinde en etkili inovasyon göstergesinin Ar-Ge harcamaları olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Etkitepki fonksiyonları, orta-yüksek teknolojili ürün ihracatı üzerinde etkili olan temel inovasyon göstergesinin BIT, yüksek teknolojili ürün ihracatı üzerinde etkili olan göstergenin ise Ar-Ge harcamaları olduğunu göstermiştir. Ayrıca orta-yüksek teknolojili ürün ihracatının geçmiş dönem performansının, gelecekteki ihracat performansı üzerindeki pozitif etkisinin, yüksek teknolojili ürün ihracatının etkisinden daha yüksek olduğu da belirlenmiştir. Analiz sonuçları Türkiyede teknoloji ihracatının inovasyondan etkilenme ve uluslararası rekabet avantajı elde etme seviyesinin düşük olduğuna işaret etmektedir.

Makale detayları

Basic Innovation Indicators Affecting Exports According to Technology Intensity: An Application Based on Time Series Analysis for Türkiye

Yazarlar:

Sevda Yapraklı | Fatma Kanca Kervan

Yayıncı:

Istanbul University

Ana Başlıklar:

Ekonometri (Diğer)

Dergi:

EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics Issue 41, pp.133-150

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

12/2024

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001340598

pISSN:

2651-396X

Innovation

Medium-High Technology Product Export

High Technology Product Export

VAR AnalysisInovasyon

Orta-Yüksek Teknolojili Ürün İhracatı

Yüksek Teknolojili Ürün İhracatı

VAR Analizi

Sayı

Makale detayları

Yazarlar: Sevda Yapraklı | Fatma Kanca Kervan

Yayıncı: Istanbul University

Ana Başlıklar: Ekonometri (Diğer)

Dergi: EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics Issue 41, pp.133-150

Belge Tipi: Makale

Yayın Tarihi: 12/2024

Belge Dili: Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.): 2001340598

pISSN: 2651-396X

Sayı

Yazarlar:

Sevda Yapraklı | Fatma Kanca Kervan

Yayıncı:

Istanbul University

Ana Başlıklar:

Ekonometri (Diğer)

Dergi:

EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics Issue 41, pp.133-150

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

12/2024

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001340598

pISSN:

2651-396X