Development of Trend analysis-based Forecast Models for Türkiye’s Fossil Fuel Consumption

Nokta Nurani Bektaş; İzzet Karakurt; Gökhan Aydın

Makale detayları

Development of Trend analysis-based Forecast Models for Türkiye’s Fossil Fuel Consumption

Yazarlar:

Nokta Nurani Bektaş | İzzet Karakurt | Gökhan Aydın

Yayıncı:

Giresun University

Ana Başlıklar:

Enerji | Kömür

Dergi:

Karadeniz Fen Bilimleri Dergisi Vol.15 Issue 3, pp.1325-1340

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

9/2025

Belge Dili:

İngilizce

Document ID (Org No.):

2001358304

pISSN:

2564-7377

Anahtar kelimeler:

Özet:

 In this study, trend analysis-based forecast models were developed for Türkiye using total population TP and fossil fuel consumption FFC as independent and dependent variables from 1965 to 2023. The developed models were then verified by various statistical approaches such as determination coefficient R2, F  and t tests and predicted vs actual data. Additionally, forecasting accuracies of the developed models were measured using the indicators of mean absolute deviation MAD, mean square error MSE, root mean square error RMSE, uncertainty at 95 U95, relative root mean square error RRMSE, maximum absolute relative error erMAX and mean absolute percentage error MAPE. Moreover, Türkiyes FFC was projected from 2025 to 2035 using the proposed models. The results reveal that the future FFC of Türkiye can be successfully forecasted with one of the proposed models. Furthermore, the forecasting results evidently show that substantial increases are expected in Türkiyes future FFC.

 In this study, trend analysis-based forecast models were developed for Türkiye using total population TP and fossil fuel consumption FFC as independent and dependent variables from 1965 to 2023. The developed models were then verified by various statistical approaches such as determination coefficient R2, F  and t tests and predicted vs actual data. Additionally, forecasting accuracies of the developed models were measured using the indicators of mean absolute deviation MAD, mean square error MSE, root mean square error RMSE, uncertainty at 95 U95, relative root mean square error RRMSE, maximum absolute relative error erMAX and mean absolute percentage error MAPE. Moreover, Türkiyes FFC was projected from 2025 to 2035 using the proposed models. The results reveal that the future FFC of Türkiye can be successfully forecasted with one of the proposed models. Furthermore, the forecasting results evidently show that substantial increases are expected in Türkiyes future FFC.

 In this study, trend analysis-based forecast models were developed for Türkiye using total population TP and fossil fuel consumption FFC as independent and dependent variables from 1965 to 2023. The developed models were then verified by various statistical approaches such as determination coefficient R2, F  and t tests and predicted vs actual data. Additionally, forecasting accuracies of the developed models were measured using the indicators of mean absolute deviation MAD, mean square error MSE, root mean square error RMSE, uncertainty at 95 U95, relative root mean square error RRMSE, maximum absolute relative error erMAX and mean absolute percentage error MAPE. Moreover, Türkiyes FFC was projected from 2025 to 2035 using the proposed models. The results reveal that the future FFC of Türkiye can be successfully forecasted with one of the proposed models. Furthermore, the forecasting results evidently show that substantial increases are expected in Türkiyes future FFC.

 Bu çalışmada, 1965ten 2023e kadar Türkiye için toplam nüfus ve fosil yakıt tüketimini bağımsız ve bağımlı değişkenler olarak kullanan trend analizine dayalı tahmin modelleri geliştirilmiştir. Daha sonra, geliştirilen modellerin determinasyon katsayısı R2, F ve t testleri ve tahmin edilen ile gerçek verilerin karşılaştırılması gibi çeşitli istatistiksel yaklaşımlarla doğrulaması yapılmıştır. Ayrıca, geliştirilen modellerin tahmin doğrulukları, ortalama mutlak sapma MAD, ortalama karesel hata MSE, ortalama karekök hata RMSE, 95te belirsizlik U95, bağıl ortalama karekök hata RRMSE, maksimum mutlak bağıl hata erMAX ve ortalama mutlak yüzdelik hata MAPE göstergeleri kullanılarak ölçülmüştür. Ek olarak, önerilen modeller ile Türkiyenin fosil yakıt tüketimi 2025ten 2035e kadar tahmin edilmiştir. Sonuçlar, Türkiyenin gelecekteki fosil yakıt tüketiminin önerilen modellerden biri ile başarılı bir şekilde tahmin edilebileceğini ortaya koymuştur. Dahası, tahmin sonuçları Türkiyenin gelecekteki fosil yakıt tüketiminde önemli artışların beklendiğini açıkça göstermiştir.

Makale detayları

Development of Trend analysis-based Forecast Models for Türkiye’s Fossil Fuel Consumption

Yazarlar:

Nokta Nurani Bektaş | İzzet Karakurt | Gökhan Aydın

Yayıncı:

Giresun University

Ana Başlıklar:

Enerji | Kömür

Dergi:

Karadeniz Fen Bilimleri Dergisi Vol.15 Issue 3, pp.1325-1340

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

9/2025

Belge Dili:

İngilizce

Document ID (Org No.):

2001358304

pISSN:

2564-7377

Fossil fuel consumption

Trend analysis

Model

Forecast

TürkiyeFosil yakıt tüketimi

Trend analizi

Model

Tahmin

Türkiye

Sayı

Makale detayları

Yazarlar: Nokta Nurani Bektaş | İzzet Karakurt | Gökhan Aydın

Yayıncı: Giresun University

Ana Başlıklar: Enerji | Kömür

Dergi: Karadeniz Fen Bilimleri Dergisi Vol.15 Issue 3, pp.1325-1340

Belge Tipi: Makale

Yayın Tarihi: 9/2025

Belge Dili: İngilizce

Document ID (Org No.): 2001358304

pISSN: 2564-7377

Sayı

Yazarlar:

Nokta Nurani Bektaş | İzzet Karakurt | Gökhan Aydın

Yayıncı:

Giresun University

Ana Başlıklar:

Enerji | Kömür

Dergi:

Karadeniz Fen Bilimleri Dergisi Vol.15 Issue 3, pp.1325-1340

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

9/2025

Belge Dili:

İngilizce

Document ID (Org No.):

2001358304

pISSN:

2564-7377