The Sectoral Costs of the Pandemic: What is the Role of Openness?

Cem Çakmaklı; Sevda Demiralp; Sevcan Yeşiltaş; Muhammed Yıldırım

Makale detayları

The Sectoral Costs of the Pandemic: What is the Role of Openness?

Yazarlar:

Cem Çakmaklı | Sevda Demiralp | Sevcan Yeşiltaş | Muhammed Yıldırım

Yayıncı:

Istanbul University

Ana Başlıklar:

İşletme

Dergi:

İstanbul İktisat Dergisi Vol.72 Issue 2, pp.431-451

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

1/2023

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001282619

pISSN:

2602-4152

Anahtar kelimeler:

Özet:

 This study investigates the sectoral costs of the shocks during the pandemic period and analyzes the relationship of these costs with the openness of countries and sectors to trade. We use a model that focuses on the demand and supply side relations at the sectoral level. This model measures the effect of supply and demand-side shocks on the economy by exploiting the economic linkages between countries and their sectors using OECD Intercountry Input-Output tables. We compute supply and demand-side shocks concerning the course of the pandemic, and we consider the effects of these shocks on the sectors. The openness of the countries, or the proportions of exports and imports in the GDP of the countries, was taken into consideration when analyzing these effects. The pandemics impact on the nations economies through trade, such as through import and export channels, is bidirectional. When it comes to exports, the economic downturn seen among trading partners during the pandemic era likewise reduces an open countrys export potential. From the point of view of imports, the disruptions in production and supply chains during the pandemic period spread to the whole world through supply chains and caused problems in the supply of imported inputs. In this context, the results obtained in this article show that open countries have experienced heavier economic losses during the pandemic period. This result is consistent with the fact that open countries are more exposed to demand contraction and supply chain problems due to the pandemic. This finding is demonstrated by considering Turkey and Brazil as two examples, which have different openness structures. When we compare the costs of the pandemic period between Turkey, which is an emerging market with a high openness to trade, and Brazil, which is a relatively closed economy, it is seen that the costs computed for Turkey are higher. When we focus on the results in more detail, we observe that the sectoral costs are widespread in Turkey due to supply problems, and losses in sectors such as real estate, construction, and manufacturing, which have a high dependence on imported intermediate goods in their production, are higher than in Brazil. When we compare the US and the Netherlands, two developed countries, we find that the Netherlands, with its high level of openness, has higher costs.

 This study investigates the sectoral costs of the shocks during the pandemic period and analyzes the relationship of these costs with the openness of countries and sectors to trade. We use a model that focuses on the demand and supply side relations at the sectoral level. This model measures the effect of supply and demand-side shocks on the economy by exploiting the economic linkages between countries and their sectors using OECD Intercountry Input-Output tables. We compute supply and demand-side shocks concerning the course of the pandemic, and we consider the effects of these shocks on the sectors. The openness of the countries, or the proportions of exports and imports in the GDP of the countries, was taken into consideration when analyzing these effects. The pandemics impact on the nations economies through trade, such as through import and export channels, is bidirectional. When it comes to exports, the economic downturn seen among trading partners during the pandemic era likewise reduces an open countrys export potential. From the point of view of imports, the disruptions in production and supply chains during the pandemic period spread to the whole world through supply chains and caused problems in the supply of imported inputs. In this context, the results obtained in this article show that open countries have experienced heavier economic losses during the pandemic period. This result is consistent with the fact that open countries are more exposed to demand contraction and supply chain problems due to the pandemic. This finding is demonstrated by considering Turkey and Brazil as two examples, which have different openness structures. When we compare the costs of the pandemic period between Turkey, which is an emerging market with a high openness to trade, and Brazil, which is a relatively closed economy, it is seen that the costs computed for Turkey are higher. When we focus on the results in more detail, we observe that the sectoral costs are widespread in Turkey due to supply problems, and losses in sectors such as real estate, construction, and manufacturing, which have a high dependence on imported intermediate goods in their production, are higher than in Brazil. When we compare the US and the Netherlands, two developed countries, we find that the Netherlands, with its high level of openness, has higher costs.

 This study investigates the sectoral costs of the shocks during the pandemic period and analyzes the relationship of these costs with the openness of countries and sectors to trade. We use a model that focuses on the demand and supply side relations at the sectoral level. This model measures the effect of supply and demand-side shocks on the economy by exploiting the economic linkages between countries and their sectors using OECD Intercountry Input-Output tables. We compute supply and demand-side shocks concerning the course of the pandemic, and we consider the effects of these shocks on the sectors. The openness of the countries, or the proportions of exports and imports in the GDP of the countries, was taken into consideration when analyzing these effects. The pandemics impact on the nations economies through trade, such as through import and export channels, is bidirectional. When it comes to exports, the economic downturn seen among trading partners during the pandemic era likewise reduces an open countrys export potential. From the point of view of imports, the disruptions in production and supply chains during the pandemic period spread to the whole world through supply chains and caused problems in the supply of imported inputs. In this context, the results obtained in this article show that open countries have experienced heavier economic losses during the pandemic period. This result is consistent with the fact that open countries are more exposed to demand contraction and supply chain problems due to the pandemic. This finding is demonstrated by considering Turkey and Brazil as two examples, which have different openness structures. When we compare the costs of the pandemic period between Turkey, which is an emerging market with a high openness to trade, and Brazil, which is a relatively closed economy, it is seen that the costs computed for Turkey are higher. When we focus on the results in more detail, we observe that the sectoral costs are widespread in Turkey due to supply problems, and losses in sectors such as real estate, construction, and manufacturing, which have a high dependence on imported intermediate goods in their production, are higher than in Brazil. When we compare the US and the Netherlands, two developed countries, we find that the Netherlands, with its high level of openness, has higher costs.

 Bu çalışmada pandemi döneminde oluşan şokların ülkeler üzerinde sektörel düzeyde maliyetleri incelenmiş, bu maliyetlerin ülkelerin ve sektörlerin dış ticarete açıklığıyla ilişkisi analiz edilmiştir. Çalışmada sektörel seviyede arz ve talep ilişkilerini ele alan bir model kullanılmıştır. Bu modelde OECD ülkelerarası girdi-çıktı tablosu kullanılarak ülkeler ve sektörler arasındaki ekonomik bağlantılar kullanılarak arz ve talep taraflı şokların ekonomi üzerine etkisi ölçülmektedir. Arz ve talep yanlı şoklar pandeminin gidişatına bağlı olarak hesaplanmış daha sonra bu şokların sektörlere etkisi ele alınmıştır. Bu etkiler incelenirken özellikle ülkelerin dışa açıklığı yani ülkelerin Gayrisafi Yurtiçi Hasılası GSYH içinde ihracat ve ithalatın payları göz önüne alınmıştır. Pandeminin ülke ekonomilerine dış ticaret yoluyla etkisi ihracat ve ithalat kanallarıyla olmak üzere iki yönlüdür. İhracat açısından bakıldığında, pandemi döneminde ticaret ortaklarında gözlenen ekonomik yavaşlama dışa açık bir ülkenin ihracat imkanlarını da yavaşlatmaktadır. İthalat açısından bakıldığında ise pandemi döneminde üretimde yaşanan aksamalar tedarik zincirleri vasıtasıyla tüm dünyaya sirayet ederek ithal girdilerin tedariğinde sorunlara sebep olmuştur. Bu bağlamda bu makalede elde edilen sonuçlar da dışa açık ülkelerin pandemi döneminde daha ağır ekonomik kayıplar yaşadıklarını göstermektedir. Bu sonuç, dışa açık olan ülkelerin pandemi kaynaklı talep daralması ve tedarik zinciri sorunlarına daha fazla maruz kalmaları ile tutarlıdır. Bu bulgu özellikle farklı dışa açıklık yapısı olan Türkiye ve Brezilya örnekleri üzerinden gösterilmiştir. Ticarete açıklığı yüksek bir gelişen pazar olan Türkiye ve görece daha kapalı olan Brezilya arasında pandemi dönemi maliyetlerini karşılaştırdığımızda Türkiye için hesaplanan maliyetlerin daha yüksek olduğu görülmüştür. Sonuçlara daha ayrıntılı baktığımızda, Türkiyede arz sıkıntıları nedeni ile sektörel maliyetlerin genele yayıldığı, üretiminde ithal ara malına bağımlılığı yüksek olan gayrimenkul, inşaat, imalat gibi sektörlerde kayıpların Brezilyadan daha yüksek olduğu gözlenmektedir. Benzer bir karşılaştırmayı iki gelişmiş ülke olan ABD ve Hollanda arasında yaptığımızda da dışa açıklığı yüksek olan Hollandanın daha yüksek maliyet ödediği gözlenmiştir..

Makale detayları

The Sectoral Costs of the Pandemic: What is the Role of Openness?

Yazarlar:

Cem Çakmaklı | Sevda Demiralp | Sevcan Yeşiltaş | Muhammed Yıldırım

Yayıncı:

Istanbul University

Ana Başlıklar:

İşletme

Dergi:

İstanbul İktisat Dergisi Vol.72 Issue 2, pp.431-451

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

1/2023

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001282619

pISSN:

2602-4152

Sectoral Costs

Covid-19

Openness

Covid-19; Sektörel maliyetler

Dışa açıklık.

Covid-19; Sectoral Costs

Openness

Covid-19;

Sectoral Costs

Covid-19

Sayı

Makale detayları

Yazarlar: Cem Çakmaklı | Sevda Demiralp | Sevcan Yeşiltaş | Muhammed Yıldırım

Yayıncı: Istanbul University

Ana Başlıklar: İşletme

Dergi: İstanbul İktisat Dergisi Vol.72 Issue 2, pp.431-451

Belge Tipi: Makale

Yayın Tarihi: 1/2023

Belge Dili: Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.): 2001282619

pISSN: 2602-4152

Sayı

Yazarlar:

Cem Çakmaklı | Sevda Demiralp | Sevcan Yeşiltaş | Muhammed Yıldırım

Yayıncı:

Istanbul University

Ana Başlıklar:

İşletme

Dergi:

İstanbul İktisat Dergisi Vol.72 Issue 2, pp.431-451

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

1/2023

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001282619

pISSN:

2602-4152