The Shift in Defense Priorities: The Impact of Geopolitical Risk, Economic Growth, and Economic Policy Uncertainty on Military Expenditures in G7 Countries

Mehmet Aydın

Makale detayları

The Shift in Defense Priorities: The Impact of Geopolitical Risk, Economic Growth, and Economic Policy Uncertainty on Military Expenditures in G7 Countries

Yazarlar:

Mehmet Aydın

Yayıncı:

Ahmet Arif EREN

Ana Başlıklar:

Ekonometrik ve İstatistiksel Yöntemler | Maliye Politikası | Kamu Ekonomisi

Dergi:

Politik Ekonomik Kuram Vol.9 Issue 3, pp.1234-1247

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

9/2025

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001358193

pISSN:

2587-2567

Anahtar kelimeler:

Özet:

 Geopolitical risk refers to geopolitical threats and actions that arise from a countrys geographical location and international dynamics, and this plays a critical role in shaping countries defense policies. Economic policy uncertainty means that governments and economic management lack clarity about future policy steps and can negatively affect the planning and decision-making processes of economic actors. These risks and uncertainties can make resource allocation decisions more complicated by changing the composition of public expenditures. This study aims to examine the long-run effects of economic growth, economic policy uncertainty, and geopolitical risk factors on military expenditures in G7 countries between 1997 and 2023. In the study, the relationships between the variables were analyzed with long-run panel data estimation methods. According to the findings, in the long run, economic policy uncertainty leads to an increase in military expenditures in Canada, Germany, and Japan, while it causes a decrease in the UK. While economic growth positively affects military expenditures in Canada, Italy, and the US, this effect was found to be negative in France. Geopolitical risk was found to significantly increase military expenditures in France, the UK, and the US. These results reveal the need for decision-makers to take these elements into consideration when determining defense priorities.

 Geopolitical risk refers to geopolitical threats and actions that arise from a countrys geographical location and international dynamics, and this plays a critical role in shaping countries defense policies. Economic policy uncertainty means that governments and economic management lack clarity about future policy steps and can negatively affect the planning and decision-making processes of economic actors. These risks and uncertainties can make resource allocation decisions more complicated by changing the composition of public expenditures. This study aims to examine the long-run effects of economic growth, economic policy uncertainty, and geopolitical risk factors on military expenditures in G7 countries between 1997 and 2023. In the study, the relationships between the variables were analyzed with long-run panel data estimation methods. According to the findings, in the long run, economic policy uncertainty leads to an increase in military expenditures in Canada, Germany, and Japan, while it causes a decrease in the UK. While economic growth positively affects military expenditures in Canada, Italy, and the US, this effect was found to be negative in France. Geopolitical risk was found to significantly increase military expenditures in France, the UK, and the US. These results reveal the need for decision-makers to take these elements into consideration when determining defense priorities.

 Geopolitical risk refers to geopolitical threats and actions that arise from a countrys geographical location and international dynamics, and this plays a critical role in shaping countries defense policies. Economic policy uncertainty means that governments and economic management lack clarity about future policy steps and can negatively affect the planning and decision-making processes of economic actors. These risks and uncertainties can make resource allocation decisions more complicated by changing the composition of public expenditures. This study aims to examine the long-run effects of economic growth, economic policy uncertainty, and geopolitical risk factors on military expenditures in G7 countries between 1997 and 2023. In the study, the relationships between the variables were analyzed with long-run panel data estimation methods. According to the findings, in the long run, economic policy uncertainty leads to an increase in military expenditures in Canada, Germany, and Japan, while it causes a decrease in the UK. While economic growth positively affects military expenditures in Canada, Italy, and the US, this effect was found to be negative in France. Geopolitical risk was found to significantly increase military expenditures in France, the UK, and the US. These results reveal the need for decision-makers to take these elements into consideration when determining defense priorities.

 Jeopolitik risk, bir ülkenin coğrafi konumu ve uluslararası dinamiklerin etkisiyle ortaya çıkan jeopolitik tehditleri ve eylemleri ifade etmekte olup, bu durum ülkelerin savunma politikalarının şekillenmesinde kritik bir rol oynamaktadır. Ekonomik politika belirsizliği, hükümetlerin ve ekonomi yönetiminin gelecekteki politika adımlarına dair netlikten yoksun olması anlamına gelmekte ve ekonomik aktörlerin planlama ve karar alma süreçlerini olumsuz etkileyebilmektedir. Bu risk ve belirsizlikler, kamu harcamalarının kompozisyonunu değiştirerek kaynak tahsisi kararlarını daha karmaşık hale getirebilmektedir. Bu çalışma, 1997-2023 yılları arasında G7 ülkelerinde ekonomik büyüme, ekonomik politika belirsizliği ve jeopolitik risk faktörlerinin askeri harcamalar üzerindeki uzun dönem etkilerini incelemeyi amaçlamaktadır. Çalışmada, değişkenler arasındaki ilişkiler uzun dönem panel veri tahmin yöntemleriyle analiz edilmiştir. Elde edilen bulgulara göre, uzun dönemde ekonomik politika belirsizliği Kanada, Almanya ve Japonyada askeri harcamalarda artışa yol açarken, İngilterede azalmaya neden olmaktadır. Ekonomik büyüme, Kanada, İtalya ve ABDde askeri harcamaları olumlu etkilerken, Fransada bu etkinin olumsuz olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Jeopolitik riskin ise Fransa, İngiltere ve ABDde askeri harcamaları anlamlı bir şekilde artırdığı görülmüştür. Bu sonuçlar, karar alıcıların, savunma önceliklerini belirlerken bu unsurları göz önünde bulundurmalarının gerekliliğini ortaya koymaktadır.

Makale detayları

The Shift in Defense Priorities: The Impact of Geopolitical Risk, Economic Growth, and Economic Policy Uncertainty on Military Expenditures in G7 Countries

Yazarlar:

Mehmet Aydın

Yayıncı:

Ahmet Arif EREN

Ana Başlıklar:

Ekonometrik ve İstatistiksel Yöntemler | Maliye Politikası | Kamu Ekonomisi

Dergi:

Politik Ekonomik Kuram Vol.9 Issue 3, pp.1234-1247

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

9/2025

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001358193

pISSN:

2587-2567

Geopolitical Risk

Economic Policy Uncertainty

Military Expenditures

Economic GrowthJeopolitik Risk

Ekonomik Politika Belirsizliği

Askeri Harcamalar

Ekonomik Büyüme

Sayı

Makale detayları

Yazarlar: Mehmet Aydın

Yayıncı: Ahmet Arif EREN

Ana Başlıklar: Ekonometrik ve İstatistiksel Yöntemler | Maliye Politikası | Kamu Ekonomisi

Dergi: Politik Ekonomik Kuram Vol.9 Issue 3, pp.1234-1247

Belge Tipi: Makale

Yayın Tarihi: 9/2025

Belge Dili: Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.): 2001358193

pISSN: 2587-2567

Sayı

Yazarlar:

Mehmet Aydın

Yayıncı:

Ahmet Arif EREN

Ana Başlıklar:

Ekonometrik ve İstatistiksel Yöntemler | Maliye Politikası | Kamu Ekonomisi

Dergi:

Politik Ekonomik Kuram Vol.9 Issue 3, pp.1234-1247

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

9/2025

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001358193

pISSN:

2587-2567