The Relationship between Financial Investment Instrument Returns and Inflation: The Case of Türkiye (2005-2023)

Nazan Güngör Karyağdı; İbrahim Aytekin

Makale detayları

The Relationship between Financial Investment Instrument Returns and Inflation: The Case of Türkiye (2005-2023)

Yazarlar:

Nazan Güngör Karyağdı | İbrahim Aytekin

Yayıncı:

Alanya Alaaddin Keykubat Üniversitesi

Ana Başlıklar:

Ekonomi | Finans

Dergi:

Alanya Akademik Bakış Vol.7 Issue 2, pp.809-822

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

5/2023

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001290646

pISSN:

2651-4192

Anahtar kelimeler:

Özet:

 This study aims to examine the effects of Türkiyes 2005:M12023:M1 BIST100 index, gold, and US dollar return on inflation. Within this framework, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag model bounds test was used and the Toda-Yamamoto causality test was used. As a result of the analysis, the BIST100 returns and US dollar returns were effective both in short and long-term inflation and these effects were statistically significant. However, the effect of gold returns on inflation was found to be statistically significant both in the short and long term. In the final stage of econometric analysis, the Toda-Yamamoto causality test was applied to variables. According to this test, a bidirectional causality relationship was found between inflation and US dollar returns in Türkiye. Also, a one-way causality relationship was found from the US dollar returns and inflation to gold and from BIST100 returns to inflation. As a result of this study, it is recommended that investors and portfolio managers consider the direction of movement of the relationship between these financial investment instruments and inflation when investing in these financial instruments.

 This study aims to examine the effects of Türkiyes 2005:M12023:M1 BIST100 index, gold, and US dollar return on inflation. Within this framework, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag model bounds test was used and the Toda-Yamamoto causality test was used. As a result of the analysis, the BIST100 returns and US dollar returns were effective both in short and long-term inflation and these effects were statistically significant. However, the effect of gold returns on inflation was found to be statistically significant both in the short and long term. In the final stage of econometric analysis, the Toda-Yamamoto causality test was applied to variables. According to this test, a bidirectional causality relationship was found between inflation and US dollar returns in Türkiye. Also, a one-way causality relationship was found from the US dollar returns and inflation to gold and from BIST100 returns to inflation. As a result of this study, it is recommended that investors and portfolio managers consider the direction of movement of the relationship between these financial investment instruments and inflation when investing in these financial instruments.

 This study aims to examine the effects of Türkiyes 2005:M12023:M1 BIST100 index, gold, and US dollar return on inflation. Within this framework, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag model bounds test was used and the Toda-Yamamoto causality test was used. As a result of the analysis, the BIST100 returns and US dollar returns were effective both in short and long-term inflation and these effects were statistically significant. However, the effect of gold returns on inflation was found to be statistically significant both in the short and long term. In the final stage of econometric analysis, the Toda-Yamamoto causality test was applied to variables. According to this test, a bidirectional causality relationship was found between inflation and US dollar returns in Türkiye. Also, a one-way causality relationship was found from the US dollar returns and inflation to gold and from BIST100 returns to inflation. As a result of this study, it is recommended that investors and portfolio managers consider the direction of movement of the relationship between these financial investment instruments and inflation when investing in these financial instruments.

 Bu çalışmada amaç Türkiyenin 2005:M12023:M1 dönemindeki BİST100 endeksi, altın ve ABD doları getirilerinin enflasyon üzerindeki etkilerini ekonometrik yöntemlerle incelemektir. Bu çerçevede çalışmada Gecikmesi Dağıtılmış Otoregresif sınır testi ile Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik testi kullanılmıştır. Yapılan analizler sonucunda BİST100 getirileri ile ABD doları getirilerinin enflasyon üzerinde hem kısa hem de uzun dönemde etkili oldukları ve bu etkilerin istatistiki açıdan anlamlı olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Fakat altın getirilerinin enflasyon üzerindeki etkisinin hem kısa hem de uzun dönemde istatistiki açıdan anlamsız olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Ekonometrik analizin son aşamasında değişkenlere Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik testi uygulanmıştır. Bu teste göre Türkiyede enflasyon ile ABD doları getirileri arasında çift yönlü nedensellik ilişkisine rastlanmıştır. Ayrıca ABD doları getirileri ve enflasyondan altın getirilerine doğru, BİST100 getirilerinden ise enflasyona doğru tek yönlü nedensellik ilişkisine rastlanmıştır. Bu çalışmanın sonucunda, yatırımcılar ve portföy yöneticilerinin bu finansal araçlara yatırım yapacakları zaman bu finansal yatırım araçları ile enflasyon arasındaki ilişkinin hareket yönünü göz önünde bulundurmaları tavsiye edilmektedir.

Makale detayları

The Relationship between Financial Investment Instrument Returns and Inflation: The Case of Türkiye (2005-2023)

Yazarlar:

Nazan Güngör Karyağdı | İbrahim Aytekin

Yayıncı:

Alanya Alaaddin Keykubat Üniversitesi

Ana Başlıklar:

Ekonomi | Finans

Dergi:

Alanya Akademik Bakış Vol.7 Issue 2, pp.809-822

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

5/2023

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001290646

pISSN:

2651-4192

BIST100

Finance

Gold

Inflation

US DollarAltın

BIST100

ABD Doları

Enflasyon

Finansal Yatırım

Sayı

Makale detayları

Yazarlar: Nazan Güngör Karyağdı | İbrahim Aytekin

Yayıncı: Alanya Alaaddin Keykubat Üniversitesi

Ana Başlıklar: Ekonomi | Finans

Dergi: Alanya Akademik Bakış Vol.7 Issue 2, pp.809-822

Belge Tipi: Makale

Yayın Tarihi: 5/2023

Belge Dili: Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.): 2001290646

pISSN: 2651-4192

Sayı

Yazarlar:

Nazan Güngör Karyağdı | İbrahim Aytekin

Yayıncı:

Alanya Alaaddin Keykubat Üniversitesi

Ana Başlıklar:

Ekonomi | Finans

Dergi:

Alanya Akademik Bakış Vol.7 Issue 2, pp.809-822

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

5/2023

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001290646

pISSN:

2651-4192