Forecasting natural gas consumption in İstanbul using neural networks and multivariate time series methods

Ömer Fahrettin DEMİREL; Selim ZAİM; Ahmet ÇALIŞKAN; Pınar ÖZUYAR

Makale detayları

Forecasting natural gas consumption in İstanbul using neural networks and multivariate time series methods

Yazarlar:

Ömer Fahrettin DEMİREL | Selim ZAİM | Ahmet ÇALIŞKAN | Pınar ÖZUYAR

Yayıncı:

TUBITAK

Dergi:

Turkish Journal of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science 2012 Vol.20 Issue 5, pp.695-711

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

4/2012

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2000743534

Sıklık:

İki Aylık

eISSN:

1303-6203

pISSN:

1300-0632

Özet:

 

The fast changes and developments in the world's economy  have substantially increased energy consumption.  Consequently, energy planning has become more critical and important.  Forecasting is one of the main tools utilized in energy planning.  Recently developed computational techniques such as genetic algorithms have led to easily produced and accurate forecasts.  In this paper, a natural gas consumption forecasting methodology is developed and implemented with state-of-the-art techniques.  We show that our forecasts are quite close to real consumption values.  Accurate forecasting of natural gas consumption is extremely critical as the majority of purchasing agreements made are based on predictions.  As a result, if the forecasts are not done correctly, either unused natural gas amounts must be paid or there will be shortages of natural gas in the planning periods.

 

The fast changes and developments in the world's economy  have substantially increased energy consumption.  Consequently, energy planning has become more critical and important.  Forecasting is one of the main tools utilized in energy planning.  Recently developed computational techniques such as genetic algorithms have led to easily produced and accurate forecasts.  In this paper, a natural gas consumption forecasting methodology is developed and implemented with state-of-the-art techniques.  We show that our forecasts are quite close to real consumption values.  Accurate forecasting of natural gas consumption is extremely critical as the majority of purchasing agreements made are based on predictions.  As a result, if the forecasts are not done correctly, either unused natural gas amounts must be paid or there will be shortages of natural gas in the planning periods.

Makale detayları

Forecasting natural gas consumption in İstanbul using neural networks and multivariate time series methods

Yazarlar: Ömer Fahrettin DEMİREL | Selim ZAİM | Ahmet ÇALIŞKAN | Pınar ÖZUYAR

Yayıncı: TUBITAK

Dergi: Turkish Journal of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science 2012 Vol.20 Issue 5, pp.695-711

Belge Tipi: Makale

Yayın Tarihi: 4/2012

Belge Dili: Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.): 2000743534

Sıklık: İki Aylık

eISSN: 1303-6203

pISSN: 1300-0632

Sayı

Yazarlar:

Ömer Fahrettin DEMİREL | Selim ZAİM | Ahmet ÇALIŞKAN | Pınar ÖZUYAR

Yayıncı:

TUBITAK

Dergi:

Turkish Journal of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science 2012 Vol.20 Issue 5, pp.695-711

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

4/2012

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2000743534

Sıklık:

İki Aylık

eISSN:

1303-6203

pISSN:

1300-0632