Greenhouse Gas Emission-Based K-Means and Hierarchical Cluster Analysis : The Case of the G20

Mutlu Tüzer; Seyhun Doğan

Makale detayları

Greenhouse Gas Emission-Based K-Means and Hierarchical Cluster Analysis : The Case of the G20

Yazarlar:

Mutlu Tüzer | Seyhun Doğan

Yayıncı:

Istanbul University

Ana Başlıklar:

Ekonometri (Diğer)

Dergi:

EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics Issue 39, pp.89-100

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

12/2023

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001311547

pISSN:

2651-396X

Anahtar kelimeler:

Özet:

 What exactly is understood from climate change mitigation? What should be the most appropriate climate indicator to measure the success of the determined goals and targets? What level of the selected climate indicator can keep climate change within acceptable limits? What kind of climate surprises may be encountered, and how can the economic, social and political implications of the selected climate target be harmonized with these factors? These are some of the questions needing to be answered while determining the political aims and objectives of combatting climate change. The international efforts that started with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in 1992 and concluded with the Paris Agreement in 2015 have made the goal of limiting the increase in global average temperatures to 1.5C compared to the pre-Industrial level as the global standard of climate change policy. To achieve this goal, total greenhouse gas emissions must be reduced. The purpose of this study is to compare G20 members with each other using two different cluster analysis methods based on different emission criteria. For this purpose, per capita greenhouse gas emissions, per capita income, per capita electricity consumption, emission intensity of electricity production, emission intensity of primary energy supply, and emission intensity of the economy have been selected for use in the k-means cluster and hierarchical cluster analysis methods. In addition to carbon dioxide emissions, other greenhouse gases have also been included in the analysis. While the first three selected variables expressed at the per capita level are scale variables that determine the total amount of greenhouse gas emissions, the intensity variables expressed at the unit activity level are considered technological variables. Although the emissions of developing countries are close to developed countries in terms of the scale variables, differences are seen to occur between developing and developed members in terms of technological variables and different clusters.

 What exactly is understood from climate change mitigation? What should be the most appropriate climate indicator to measure the success of the determined goals and targets? What level of the selected climate indicator can keep climate change within acceptable limits? What kind of climate surprises may be encountered, and how can the economic, social and political implications of the selected climate target be harmonized with these factors? These are some of the questions needing to be answered while determining the political aims and objectives of combatting climate change. The international efforts that started with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in 1992 and concluded with the Paris Agreement in 2015 have made the goal of limiting the increase in global average temperatures to 1.5C compared to the pre-Industrial level as the global standard of climate change policy. To achieve this goal, total greenhouse gas emissions must be reduced. The purpose of this study is to compare G20 members with each other using two different cluster analysis methods based on different emission criteria. For this purpose, per capita greenhouse gas emissions, per capita income, per capita electricity consumption, emission intensity of electricity production, emission intensity of primary energy supply, and emission intensity of the economy have been selected for use in the k-means cluster and hierarchical cluster analysis methods. In addition to carbon dioxide emissions, other greenhouse gases have also been included in the analysis. While the first three selected variables expressed at the per capita level are scale variables that determine the total amount of greenhouse gas emissions, the intensity variables expressed at the unit activity level are considered technological variables. Although the emissions of developing countries are close to developed countries in terms of the scale variables, differences are seen to occur between developing and developed members in terms of technological variables and different clusters.

 What exactly is understood from climate change mitigation? What should be the most appropriate climate indicator to measure the success of the determined goals and targets? What level of the selected climate indicator can keep climate change within acceptable limits? What kind of climate surprises may be encountered, and how can the economic, social and political implications of the selected climate target be harmonized with these factors? These are some of the questions needing to be answered while determining the political aims and objectives of combatting climate change. The international efforts that started with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in 1992 and concluded with the Paris Agreement in 2015 have made the goal of limiting the increase in global average temperatures to 1.5C compared to the pre-Industrial level as the global standard of climate change policy. To achieve this goal, total greenhouse gas emissions must be reduced. The purpose of this study is to compare G20 members with each other using two different cluster analysis methods based on different emission criteria. For this purpose, per capita greenhouse gas emissions, per capita income, per capita electricity consumption, emission intensity of electricity production, emission intensity of primary energy supply, and emission intensity of the economy have been selected for use in the k-means cluster and hierarchical cluster analysis methods. In addition to carbon dioxide emissions, other greenhouse gases have also been included in the analysis. While the first three selected variables expressed at the per capita level are scale variables that determine the total amount of greenhouse gas emissions, the intensity variables expressed at the unit activity level are considered technological variables. Although the emissions of developing countries are close to developed countries in terms of the scale variables, differences are seen to occur between developing and developed members in terms of technological variables and different clusters.

 İklim değişikliğinin azaltılmasından tam olarak ne anlaşıldığı, belirlenen amaç ve hedeflerin başarısını ölçmek için en uygun iklim göstergesinin ne olması gerektiği, seçilen iklim göstergesinin hangi seviyesinin iklim değişikliğini kabul edilebilir sınırlar içinde tutabileceği, ne çeşit iklim sürprizleriyle karşılaşılabileceği ve seçilen iklim hedefinin ekonomik, sosyal ve politik faktörler ile nasıl uyumlu hale getirilebileceği, mücadele politikasının amaç ve hedeflerinin belirlenmesi sürecinde cevaplanması gereken sorular arasında yer almaktadır. 1992 yılında Birleşmiş Milletler İklim Değişikliği Çerçeve Sözleşmesi ile başlayan ve 2015 yılında Paris Anlaşması ile sonuçlanan uluslararası çabalar küresel ortalama sıcaklıklardaki artışın Sanayi Devrimi öncesi döneme kıyasla 1,5 C ile sınırlandırılması hedefini iklim değişikliği politikasının küresel standardı haline getirmiştir. Bu hedefin gerçekleştirilmesi için toplam sera gazı emisyonlarının azaltılması gerekmektedir. Bu çalışmada, farklı emisyon ölçütlerine dayalı olarak iki farklı kümeleme analizi yöntemiyle G20 üyelerinin birbirleriyle karşılaştırılması amaçlanmıştır. Bu doğrultuda k-ortalama kümeleme analizi ve hiyerarşik kümeleme analizi yöntemleri kullanılarak kişi başına sera gazı emisyonu, kişi başına gelir, kişi başına elektrik tüketimi, elektrik üretiminin emisyon yoğunluğu, birincil enerji arzının emisyon yoğunluğu ve ekonominin emisyon yoğunluğu ölçütleri seçilmiştir. Analize yalnızca karbondioksit CO2 emisyonları değil, diğer sera gazları da dahil edilmiştir. Seçilen değişkenlerden kişi başına düzeyde ifade edilen ilk üçü, toplam sera gazı emisyon miktarını belirleyen ölçek değişkenleri iken birim aktivite düzeyinde ifade edilen yoğunluk değişkenleri, teknolojik değişkenler olarak kabul edilmiştir. Ölçek değişkenleri bakımından gelişmekte olan ülkelerin emisyonları gelişmiş ülkelere yakın olsa da teknolojik değişkenler bakımından gelişmekte ve gelişmiş üyeler arasında farkların olduğu ve farklı kümelerde yer aldıkları görülmektedir.

Makale detayları

Greenhouse Gas Emission-Based K-Means and Hierarchical Cluster Analysis : The Case of the G20

Yazarlar:

Mutlu Tüzer | Seyhun Doğan

Yayıncı:

Istanbul University

Ana Başlıklar:

Ekonometri (Diğer)

Dergi:

EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics Issue 39, pp.89-100

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

12/2023

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001311547

pISSN:

2651-396X

Global warming

climate change

carbon dioxide emissions

cluster analysis

k-means cluster analysis

hierarchical cluster analysissKüresel Isınma

İklim Değişikliği

Sera Gazı Emisyonları

Kümeleme Analizi

K-Ortalama Kümeleme Analizi

Hiyerarşik Kümeleme Analizi

Sayı

Makale detayları

Yazarlar: Mutlu Tüzer | Seyhun Doğan

Yayıncı: Istanbul University

Ana Başlıklar: Ekonometri (Diğer)

Dergi: EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics Issue 39, pp.89-100

Belge Tipi: Makale

Yayın Tarihi: 12/2023

Belge Dili: Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.): 2001311547

pISSN: 2651-396X

Sayı

Yazarlar:

Mutlu Tüzer | Seyhun Doğan

Yayıncı:

Istanbul University

Ana Başlıklar:

Ekonometri (Diğer)

Dergi:

EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics Issue 39, pp.89-100

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

12/2023

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001311547

pISSN:

2651-396X