The Impact of Geopolitical Risk and Economic Political Uncertainty on Gold Price: Evidence from Quantile-on-Quantile Regression Analysis

Mehmet Dinç

Makale detayları

The Impact of Geopolitical Risk and Economic Political Uncertainty on Gold Price: Evidence from Quantile-on-Quantile Regression Analysis

Yazarlar:

Mehmet Dinç

Yayıncı:

Isparta University of Applied Sciences

Ana Başlıklar:

Makroekonomik Teori

Dergi:

Uygulamalı Sosyal Bilimler ve Güzel Sanatlar Dergisi Vol.7 Issue 17, pp.33-45

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

1/2025

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001347499

pISSN:

2687-4903

Anahtar kelimeler:

Özet:

 Uncertainties and risks are among the important factors affecting economic activities and investment decisions. In periods of increased uncertainties and risks, economic units turn to various investment instruments that are considered as safe havens to eliminate the negative effects. Gold is one of these investment instruments. The aim of this study is to examine the relationship between economic political uncertainty EPU and geopolitical risk GPR values and gold price for the countries with the worlds highest gold reserves, namely the USA, Germany, China, France, India, Italy and Japan during the period 1990M1-2024M11 by using quantile-on-quantile regression QQR method. According to the results of the analysis, while there is a positive relationship between gold prices and EMU, the relationship between GPR and gold prices can be positive or negative depending on the quantile values of the variables. These findings provide important information for investors.

 Uncertainties and risks are among the important factors affecting economic activities and investment decisions. In periods of increased uncertainties and risks, economic units turn to various investment instruments that are considered as safe havens to eliminate the negative effects. Gold is one of these investment instruments. The aim of this study is to examine the relationship between economic political uncertainty EPU and geopolitical risk GPR values and gold price for the countries with the worlds highest gold reserves, namely the USA, Germany, China, France, India, Italy and Japan during the period 1990M1-2024M11 by using quantile-on-quantile regression QQR method. According to the results of the analysis, while there is a positive relationship between gold prices and EMU, the relationship between GPR and gold prices can be positive or negative depending on the quantile values of the variables. These findings provide important information for investors.

 Uncertainties and risks are among the important factors affecting economic activities and investment decisions. In periods of increased uncertainties and risks, economic units turn to various investment instruments that are considered as safe havens to eliminate the negative effects. Gold is one of these investment instruments. The aim of this study is to examine the relationship between economic political uncertainty EPU and geopolitical risk GPR values and gold price for the countries with the worlds highest gold reserves, namely the USA, Germany, China, France, India, Italy and Japan during the period 1990M1-2024M11 by using quantile-on-quantile regression QQR method. According to the results of the analysis, while there is a positive relationship between gold prices and EMU, the relationship between GPR and gold prices can be positive or negative depending on the quantile values of the variables. These findings provide important information for investors.

 Belirsizlikler ve riskler, ekonomik faaliyetleri ve yatırım kararlarını etkileyen önemli faktörler arasında yer almaktadır. Belirsizliklerin ve risklerin arttığı dönemlerde, ekonomik birimler olumsuz etkileri bertaraf etmek için güvenli liman olarak kabul edilen çeşitli yatırım araçlarına yönelmektedir. Bu yatırım araçlarının başında altın gelmektedir. Bu çalışmanın amacı, 1990M1-2024M11 döneminde dünyanın en yüksek altın rezervine sahip olan ABD, Almanya, Çin, Fransa, Hindistan, İtalya ve Japonya ülkelerine ait ekonomik politik belirsizlik EPU ve jeopolitik risk GPR değerleri ile altın fiyatı arasındaki ilişkiyi kantil üzerine kantil regresyon QQR yöntemi ile incelemektir. Analiz sonuçlarına göre, altın fiyatları ile EPU arasında pozitif bir ilişki bulunurken, GPR ile altın fiyatları arasındaki ilişki değişkenlerin aldığı kantil değerlerine bağlı olarak pozitif ya da negatif olabilmektedir. Bu bulgular, yatırımcılar için önemli bilgiler sunmaktadır.

Makale detayları

The Impact of Geopolitical Risk and Economic Political Uncertainty on Gold Price: Evidence from Quantile-on-Quantile Regression Analysis

Yazarlar:

Mehmet Dinç

Yayıncı:

Isparta University of Applied Sciences

Ana Başlıklar:

Makroekonomik Teori

Dergi:

Uygulamalı Sosyal Bilimler ve Güzel Sanatlar Dergisi Vol.7 Issue 17, pp.33-45

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

1/2025

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001347499

pISSN:

2687-4903

Gold Price

Economic Political Uncertainty

Geopolitical RiskAltın Fiyatı

Ekonomik Politik Belirsizlik

Jeopolitik Risk

Sayı

Makale detayları

The Impact of Geopolitical Risk and Economic Political Uncertainty on Gold Price: Evidence from Quantile-on-Quantile Regression Analysis

Yazarlar: Mehmet Dinç

Yayıncı: Isparta University of Applied Sciences

Ana Başlıklar: Makroekonomik Teori

Dergi: Uygulamalı Sosyal Bilimler ve Güzel Sanatlar Dergisi Vol.7 Issue 17, pp.33-45

Belge Tipi: Makale

Yayın Tarihi: 1/2025

Belge Dili: Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.): 2001347499

pISSN: 2687-4903

Gold Price

Economic Political Uncertainty

Geopolitical RiskAltın Fiyatı

Ekonomik Politik Belirsizlik

Jeopolitik Risk

Sayı

Yazarlar:

Mehmet Dinç

Yayıncı:

Isparta University of Applied Sciences

Ana Başlıklar:

Makroekonomik Teori

Dergi:

Uygulamalı Sosyal Bilimler ve Güzel Sanatlar Dergisi Vol.7 Issue 17, pp.33-45

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

1/2025

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001347499

pISSN:

2687-4903