The Relationship Between Sectoral Employment and Economic Growth In Turkey: Hidden Cointegration And Asymmetric Causality Test

Uğur Yıldırım; Özgür Engeloğlu

Makale detayları

The Relationship Between Sectoral Employment and Economic Growth In Turkey: Hidden Cointegration And Asymmetric Causality Test

Yazarlar:

Uğur Yıldırım | Özgür Engeloğlu

Yayıncı:

Ahmet Arif EREN

Dergi:

Fiscaoeconomia Vol.7 Issue 2, pp.1445-1473

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

5/2023

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001290180

pISSN:

2564-7504

Anahtar kelimeler:

Özet:

 A government implements economic policies to manage the economy and improve welfare conditions in a country. Providing productive spaces for the labor force in a country is also one of the primary objectives of economic policy makers. Therefore, the sectors in which the labor force is located and its contributions to the economy are important parameters. In this study, the relationship between sectoral employment rates and economic growth is analyzed. In the study, firstly, with the changing economic policies in Turkey after 1980, the sectoral outlook of the labor force is presented, and various evaluations are made. Then, hidden cointegration and asymmetric causality tests were conducted with quarterly data for the period between 2000Q1-2022Q3. According to the hidden cointegration analysis, cointegration relationship is found from positive shocks of agricultural employment to both positive and negative shocks of economic growth and from negative shocks of construction employment to positive shocks of economic growth. According to the results of asymmetric causality tests, positive shocks of the service sector are found to be the cause of negative shocks of GDP.

 A government implements economic policies to manage the economy and improve welfare conditions in a country. Providing productive spaces for the labor force in a country is also one of the primary objectives of economic policy makers. Therefore, the sectors in which the labor force is located and its contributions to the economy are important parameters. In this study, the relationship between sectoral employment rates and economic growth is analyzed. In the study, firstly, with the changing economic policies in Turkey after 1980, the sectoral outlook of the labor force is presented, and various evaluations are made. Then, hidden cointegration and asymmetric causality tests were conducted with quarterly data for the period between 2000Q1-2022Q3. According to the hidden cointegration analysis, cointegration relationship is found from positive shocks of agricultural employment to both positive and negative shocks of economic growth and from negative shocks of construction employment to positive shocks of economic growth. According to the results of asymmetric causality tests, positive shocks of the service sector are found to be the cause of negative shocks of GDP.

 A government implements economic policies to manage the economy and improve welfare conditions in a country. Providing productive spaces for the labor force in a country is also one of the primary objectives of economic policy makers. Therefore, the sectors in which the labor force is located and its contributions to the economy are important parameters. In this study, the relationship between sectoral employment rates and economic growth is analyzed. In the study, firstly, with the changing economic policies in Turkey after 1980, the sectoral outlook of the labor force is presented, and various evaluations are made. Then, hidden cointegration and asymmetric causality tests were conducted with quarterly data for the period between 2000Q1-2022Q3. According to the hidden cointegration analysis, cointegration relationship is found from positive shocks of agricultural employment to both positive and negative shocks of economic growth and from negative shocks of construction employment to positive shocks of economic growth. According to the results of asymmetric causality tests, positive shocks of the service sector are found to be the cause of negative shocks of GDP.

 Bir hükümet ekonomiyi yönetmek ve ülkedeki refah koşullarını yukarı çekmek için ekonomi politikaları uygular. Bir ülkedeki işgücüne üretken alanlar sağlamak da yine ekonomi politikası yapıcılarının öncelikli hedeflerinden birisidir. Dolayısıyla iş gücünün hangi sektörlerde yer aldığı ve ekonomiye sunduğu katkılar önemli birer parametredir. Söz konusu durumdan hareketle bu çalışmada sektörel istihdam oranlarının ekonomik büyüme ile ilişkisi ele alınmıştır. Çalışmada ilk olarak Türkiyede 1980 sonrasında değişen ekonomi politikalarıyla birlikte işgücünün sektör bazında görünümü verilmiş ve çeşitli değerlendirmeler yapılmıştır. Ardından 2000Q1-2022Q3 arasındaki dönem için çeyreklik veri ile saklı eşbütünleşme ve asimetrik nedensellik testleri yapılmıştır. Yapılan saklı eşbütünleşme analizine göre tarım istihdamının pozitif şoklarından, ekonomik büyümenin hem pozitif hem de negatif şoklarına doğru ve inşaat istihdamının negatif şoklarından, ekonomik büyümenin pozitif şoklarına doğru eşbütünleşme ilişkisine rastlanılmıştır. Asimetrik nedensellik testlerinin sonuçlarına göre ise hizmet sektörünün pozitif şoklarının, GSYHnin negatif şoklarının nedeni olduğu tespit edilmiştir.

Makale detayları

The Relationship Between Sectoral Employment and Economic Growth In Turkey: Hidden Cointegration And Asymmetric Causality Test

Yazarlar:

Uğur Yıldırım | Özgür Engeloğlu

Yayıncı:

Ahmet Arif EREN

Dergi:

Fiscaoeconomia Vol.7 Issue 2, pp.1445-1473

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

5/2023

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001290180

pISSN:

2564-7504

Employment

Economic Growth

Hidden Cointegration

Asymmetric Causalityİstihdam

Ekonomik Büyüme

Saklı Eşbütünleşme

Asimetrik Nedensellik

Sayı

Makale detayları

Yazarlar: Uğur Yıldırım | Özgür Engeloğlu

Yayıncı: Ahmet Arif EREN

Dergi: Fiscaoeconomia Vol.7 Issue 2, pp.1445-1473

Belge Tipi: Makale

Yayın Tarihi: 5/2023

Belge Dili: Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.): 2001290180

pISSN: 2564-7504

Sayı

Yazarlar:

Uğur Yıldırım | Özgür Engeloğlu

Yayıncı:

Ahmet Arif EREN

Dergi:

Fiscaoeconomia Vol.7 Issue 2, pp.1445-1473

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

5/2023

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001290180

pISSN:

2564-7504