THE EFFECTS OF DEFENSE EXPENDITURES, UNEMPLOYMENT AND INFLATION ON ECONOMIC GROWTH: THE CASE OF TÜRKİYE (1982–2023)

Kutay İşler; Aytaç Pekmezci

Makale detayları

THE EFFECTS OF DEFENSE EXPENDITURES, UNEMPLOYMENT AND INFLATION ON ECONOMIC GROWTH: THE CASE OF TÜRKİYE (1982–2023)

Yazarlar:

Kutay İşler | Aytaç Pekmezci

Yayıncı:

Kütahya Dumlupinar University

Ana Başlıklar:

Büyüme | Enflasyon | İstihdam | Savunma Çalışmaları

Dergi:

Toplum Ekonomi ve Yönetim Dergisi Vol.6 Issue 3, pp.571-597

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

10/2025

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001350050

pISSN:

2757-5489

Anahtar kelimeler:

Özet:

 In todays world, the defense alliances established by states, the joint military exercises conducted as demonstrations of power among allied countries, the occurrence of wars, invasions, or the increasing terrorist activities, and the thought that scarce resources will not last much longer urge every state to pay special attention to defense. Governments allocate resources to build defence based on their budgets, not only prioritising regional threats but also considering global risks. Depending on the budget they have to allocate, they will contribute to the security of the country and will inevitably have some effects on the countrys economy. Especially developing countries with more limited budgets, spending on defense will directly impact the amount of other investment expenditure items. For government leaders, it is very important to allocate expenditures within the framework of global and regional risks as well as the security concerns that exist due to geopolitical location. Unemployment and inflation also have an impact on the countrys economy. In this study, it was checked whether there is a long-term and short-term relationship between Gross domestic product GDP and defence expendituresGDP, inflation and unemployment rates for Türkiye between 1982 and 2023. The results of the analysis indicate a long-term relationship among the variables. Therefore, to check for a short-term relationship, the Granger causality analysis was applied, and a unidirectional relationship from all independent variables to the GDP variable was identified, indicating that all independent variables collectively affect the GDP variable. In addition, a unidirectional relationship from the GDP variable to unemployment and from the inflation variable to the GDP variable was also identified.

 In todays world, the defense alliances established by states, the joint military exercises conducted as demonstrations of power among allied countries, the occurrence of wars, invasions, or the increasing terrorist activities, and the thought that scarce resources will not last much longer urge every state to pay special attention to defense. Governments allocate resources to build defence based on their budgets, not only prioritising regional threats but also considering global risks. Depending on the budget they have to allocate, they will contribute to the security of the country and will inevitably have some effects on the countrys economy. Especially developing countries with more limited budgets, spending on defense will directly impact the amount of other investment expenditure items. For government leaders, it is very important to allocate expenditures within the framework of global and regional risks as well as the security concerns that exist due to geopolitical location. Unemployment and inflation also have an impact on the countrys economy. In this study, it was checked whether there is a long-term and short-term relationship between Gross domestic product GDP and defence expendituresGDP, inflation and unemployment rates for Türkiye between 1982 and 2023. The results of the analysis indicate a long-term relationship among the variables. Therefore, to check for a short-term relationship, the Granger causality analysis was applied, and a unidirectional relationship from all independent variables to the GDP variable was identified, indicating that all independent variables collectively affect the GDP variable. In addition, a unidirectional relationship from the GDP variable to unemployment and from the inflation variable to the GDP variable was also identified.

 In todays world, the defense alliances established by states, the joint military exercises conducted as demonstrations of power among allied countries, the occurrence of wars, invasions, or the increasing terrorist activities, and the thought that scarce resources will not last much longer urge every state to pay special attention to defense. Governments allocate resources to build defence based on their budgets, not only prioritising regional threats but also considering global risks. Depending on the budget they have to allocate, they will contribute to the security of the country and will inevitably have some effects on the countrys economy. Especially developing countries with more limited budgets, spending on defense will directly impact the amount of other investment expenditure items. For government leaders, it is very important to allocate expenditures within the framework of global and regional risks as well as the security concerns that exist due to geopolitical location. Unemployment and inflation also have an impact on the countrys economy. In this study, it was checked whether there is a long-term and short-term relationship between Gross domestic product GDP and defence expendituresGDP, inflation and unemployment rates for Türkiye between 1982 and 2023. The results of the analysis indicate a long-term relationship among the variables. Therefore, to check for a short-term relationship, the Granger causality analysis was applied, and a unidirectional relationship from all independent variables to the GDP variable was identified, indicating that all independent variables collectively affect the GDP variable. In addition, a unidirectional relationship from the GDP variable to unemployment and from the inflation variable to the GDP variable was also identified.

 Günümüzde devletlerce kurulan savunma ittifakları, dost ülkelerce güç gösterisi şeklinde yapılan ortak savaş tatbikatları, meydana gelen savaşlar, işgaller veya artan terör olayları ile kaynakların tükenmesinin uzun sürmeyeceği düşüncesi her devletin savunma konusuna ayrı parantez açmasını gerektirmektedir. Devletler kendi bölgesel risklerinin yanı sıra küresel riskleri de göz önünde bulundurarak bütçeleri ölçüsünde savunmaya kaynak aktarabilmektedir. Ayırdıkları bütçeye göre ülke güvenliğine katkı sağlanacağı gibi bunların ülke ekonomisine birtakım etkilerini kaçınılmaz olacaktır. Özellikle bütçeleri daha kısıtlı gelişmekte olan ülkelerde savunmaya yapılan harcamalar, diğer yatırım harcama kalemlerinin miktarını doğrudan etkileyecektir. Politikacılar açısından küresel ve bölgesel risklerin yanı sıra jeopolitik konum itibariyle var olan güvenlik endişesi çerçevesinde harcamaların dağıtılması çok önemlidir. İşsizlik ve enflasyonunda ülke ekonomisine etkisi bulunmaktadır. Yapılan bu çalışmada Türkiye için 1982-2023 yılları arasındaki savunma harcamalarıGayri safi yurtiçi hasıla GSYİH, enflasyon, işsizlik ve GSYİH oranları arasında uzun ve kısa dönemli ilişki olup olmadığı kontrol edilmiştir. Analizden elde edilen sonuçlara göre değişkenler arasında uzun dönemli ilişki tespit edilmiştir. Bu yüzden kısa dönemli ilişki olup olmadığını kontrol etmek için Granger nedensellik analizi uygulanmış ve tüm bağımsız değişkenlerden GSYİH değişkenine doğru tek yönlü ilişki tespit edilmiş yani tüm bağımsız değişkenlerin topluca GSYİH değişkenini etkilediği görülmüştür. Ayrıca GSYİH değişkeninden işsizliğe ve enflasyon değişkeninden GSYİHye doğru tek yönlü ilişki tespit edilmiştir.

Makale detayları

THE EFFECTS OF DEFENSE EXPENDITURES, UNEMPLOYMENT AND INFLATION ON ECONOMIC GROWTH: THE CASE OF TÜRKİYE (1982–2023)

Yazarlar:

Kutay İşler | Aytaç Pekmezci

Yayıncı:

Kütahya Dumlupinar University

Ana Başlıklar:

Büyüme | Enflasyon | İstihdam | Savunma Çalışmaları

Dergi:

Toplum Ekonomi ve Yönetim Dergisi Vol.6 Issue 3, pp.571-597

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

10/2025

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001350050

pISSN:

2757-5489

Defence Expenditures

Inflation

Unemployment

Economical Growth

Causality AnalysisSavunma Harcamaları

Enflasyon

İşsizlik

Ekonomik Büyüme

Nedensellik Analizi

Sayı

Makale detayları

Yazarlar: Kutay İşler | Aytaç Pekmezci

Yayıncı: Kütahya Dumlupinar University

Ana Başlıklar: Büyüme | Enflasyon | İstihdam | Savunma Çalışmaları

Dergi: Toplum Ekonomi ve Yönetim Dergisi Vol.6 Issue 3, pp.571-597

Belge Tipi: Makale

Yayın Tarihi: 10/2025

Belge Dili: Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.): 2001350050

pISSN: 2757-5489

Sayı

Yazarlar:

Kutay İşler | Aytaç Pekmezci

Yayıncı:

Kütahya Dumlupinar University

Ana Başlıklar:

Büyüme | Enflasyon | İstihdam | Savunma Çalışmaları

Dergi:

Toplum Ekonomi ve Yönetim Dergisi Vol.6 Issue 3, pp.571-597

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

10/2025

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001350050

pISSN:

2757-5489