AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF THE DUTCH DISEASE EFFECTS ON TURKISH ECONOMY

Musa Bayır; Büşracan İpek

Makale detayları

AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF THE DUTCH DISEASE EFFECTS ON TURKISH ECONOMY

Yazarlar:

Musa Bayır | Büşracan İpek

Yayıncı:

Pamukkale University

Ana Başlıklar:

Büyüme

Dergi:

Pamukkale Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi Issue 64, pp.307-324

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

9/2024

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001327631

pISSN:

1308-2922

Anahtar kelimeler:

Özet:

 The term Dutch disease is commonly used to refer to economic problems that arise in resource-rich countries, but there are other factors that can lead to the outcomes of Dutch disease. In particular, foreign capital inflows, by focusing on profitable sectors, can increase the competitive advantage in certain sectors of the economy, but can also bring about problems such as the appreciation of the local currency and changes in the balance of foreign trade. In clearer terms, foreign capital inflows can also lead to Dutch Disease. The Turkish economy experienced a period of high foreign capital inflows as a result of local policies and the global economic context after the 2001 economic crisis. This study investigates econometrically whether there is a hypothesis of Dutch Disease arising from foreign capital inflows in the Turkish economy. The analyses using the VAR method cover the period from 2003:1 to 2020:4. In this context, an econometric model that takes foreign trade channels into account has been created. The results of the foreign trade model show that foreign capital inflows resulted in a depreciation of the exchange rate, leading to a decrease in exports and an increase in imports, thus causing a contraction in tradable sectors. In conclusion, empirical findings regarding the validity of the Dutch Disease hypothesis for the relevant period have been obtained.

 The term Dutch disease is commonly used to refer to economic problems that arise in resource-rich countries, but there are other factors that can lead to the outcomes of Dutch disease. In particular, foreign capital inflows, by focusing on profitable sectors, can increase the competitive advantage in certain sectors of the economy, but can also bring about problems such as the appreciation of the local currency and changes in the balance of foreign trade. In clearer terms, foreign capital inflows can also lead to Dutch Disease. The Turkish economy experienced a period of high foreign capital inflows as a result of local policies and the global economic context after the 2001 economic crisis. This study investigates econometrically whether there is a hypothesis of Dutch Disease arising from foreign capital inflows in the Turkish economy. The analyses using the VAR method cover the period from 2003:1 to 2020:4. In this context, an econometric model that takes foreign trade channels into account has been created. The results of the foreign trade model show that foreign capital inflows resulted in a depreciation of the exchange rate, leading to a decrease in exports and an increase in imports, thus causing a contraction in tradable sectors. In conclusion, empirical findings regarding the validity of the Dutch Disease hypothesis for the relevant period have been obtained.

 The term Dutch disease is commonly used to refer to economic problems that arise in resource-rich countries, but there are other factors that can lead to the outcomes of Dutch disease. In particular, foreign capital inflows, by focusing on profitable sectors, can increase the competitive advantage in certain sectors of the economy, but can also bring about problems such as the appreciation of the local currency and changes in the balance of foreign trade. In clearer terms, foreign capital inflows can also lead to Dutch Disease. The Turkish economy experienced a period of high foreign capital inflows as a result of local policies and the global economic context after the 2001 economic crisis. This study investigates econometrically whether there is a hypothesis of Dutch Disease arising from foreign capital inflows in the Turkish economy. The analyses using the VAR method cover the period from 2003:1 to 2020:4. In this context, an econometric model that takes foreign trade channels into account has been created. The results of the foreign trade model show that foreign capital inflows resulted in a depreciation of the exchange rate, leading to a decrease in exports and an increase in imports, thus causing a contraction in tradable sectors. In conclusion, empirical findings regarding the validity of the Dutch Disease hypothesis for the relevant period have been obtained.

 Hollanda Hastalığı terimi, genellikle, doğal kaynak zengini ülkelerde ortaya çıkan ekonomik sorunları ifade etmek için kullanılsa da Hollanda Hastalığının sonuçlarını ortaya çıkarabilecek başka faktörler de bulunmaktadır. Özellikle, yabancı sermaye girişleri, karlı sektörlere odaklanarak ekonominin belirli sektörlerinde rekabet avantajının artmasını, ancak aynı zamanda yerel para biriminin değerlenmesi ve dış ticaret dengesinin değişmesi gibi sorunları beraberinde getirebilmektedir. Daha açık bir ifadeyle, yabancı sermaye girişleri de Hollanda Hastalığına yol açabilmektedir. Türkiye Ekonomisi, 2001 ekonomik krizinden sonra, yerel politikalar ve küresel ekonomik konjonktürün bir sonucu olarak yüksek yabancı sermaye girişlerinin olduğu bir dönem yaşamıştır. Çalışmada, Türkiye Ekonomisinde yabancı sermaye girişlerinden kaynaklanabilecek bir Hollanda Hastalığı hipotezinin geçerli olup olmadığı ekonometrik olarak araştırılmıştır. VAR yönteminin kullanıldığı analizler 2003:1-2020:4 dönemini kapsamaktadır. Burada, dış ticaret kanallarını dikkate alan bir ekonometrik model oluşturulmuştur. Dış ticaret modeline ilişkin sonuçlar, yabancı sermaye girişlerinin neden olduğu döviz kurundaki bir değerlenmeyle ihracatın düştüğünü ve ithalatın arttığını, bunun sonucunda ticarete konu sektörlerde bir küçülme ortaya çıktığını göstermektedir. Sonuç olarak, ilgili dönemde Hollanda Hastalığı hipotezinin geçerliliğine ilişkin ampirik bulgular elde edilmiştir.

Makale detayları

AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF THE DUTCH DISEASE EFFECTS ON TURKISH ECONOMY

Yazarlar:

Musa Bayır | Büşracan İpek

Yayıncı:

Pamukkale University

Ana Başlıklar:

Büyüme

Dergi:

Pamukkale Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi Issue 64, pp.307-324

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

9/2024

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001327631

pISSN:

1308-2922

Dutch Disease

Tradable Sector

VARHollanda Hastalığı

Ticarete Konu Sektör

VAR.

Sayı

Makale detayları

AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF THE DUTCH DISEASE EFFECTS ON TURKISH ECONOMY

Yazarlar: Musa Bayır | Büşracan İpek

Yayıncı: Pamukkale University

Ana Başlıklar: Büyüme

Dergi: Pamukkale Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi Issue 64, pp.307-324

Belge Tipi: Makale

Yayın Tarihi: 9/2024

Belge Dili: Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.): 2001327631

pISSN: 1308-2922

Dutch Disease

Tradable Sector

VARHollanda Hastalığı

Ticarete Konu Sektör

VAR.

Sayı

Yazarlar:

Musa Bayır | Büşracan İpek

Yayıncı:

Pamukkale University

Ana Başlıklar:

Büyüme

Dergi:

Pamukkale Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi Issue 64, pp.307-324

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

9/2024

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001327631

pISSN:

1308-2922