The Ability of Early Warning Scores to Predict Mortality in Covid 19 Pneumonia

Yunus Emre Arık; Hatice Topcu

Makale detayları

The Ability of Early Warning Scores to Predict Mortality in Covid 19 Pneumonia

Yazarlar:

Yunus Emre Arık | Hatice Topcu

Yayıncı:

Balıkesir University

Ana Başlıklar:

Sağlık Kurumları Yönetimi

Dergi:

Balıkesir Sağlık Bilimleri Dergisi Vol.12 Issue 3, pp.571-578

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

9/2023

Belge Dili:

İngilizce

Document ID (Org No.):

2001298393

pISSN:

2146-9601

Anahtar kelimeler:

Özet:

 Objective: Early recognition of critical patients is crucial in emergency departments. Many scoring systems are used for it. This study aim determining the prognostic values of these scoring systems for Covid 19 patients. Materials and Methods: This retrospective study was performed between March 2020 -May 2020. 212 patient who have Covid 19 pneumonia were enrolled. National Early Warning Score NEWS, Modified Early Warning Score MEWS and quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment qSOFA scores were calculated according to patients admission data. Receiver operating characteristic ROC analysis was used to determine the diagnostic values of scores and the optimum cut-off values were determined by Youden Index. Results: Twenty-three 10.84 of 212 patients died and 34 16 were admitted to ICU. The AUC values of MEWS, NEWS, and qSOFA for predicting mortality in  65 years old were 0.852 95 confidence interval 0.708-0.997, 0.882 0.741-1.000 and 0.879 0.768-0.990 and 65 years old 0.8540.720-0.987, 0.9310.853-1.000, 0.7760.609-0.944 respectively. For ICU admission AUC values of MEWS, NEWS and qSOFA in 65 years old followed as; 0.8820.783-0.981, 0.9140.817-1.000, 0.8680.764-0.973 and 0.8450.725-0.965, 0.9260.854-0.998, 0.8150.676-0.954 in  65 years old. MEWS and qSOFA optimal cut-off values for mortality were 2 with 90.0 sensitivity 74.7 specificity and 1 with 90.9 sensitivity 78.1 specificity for 65 years, NEWS optimal cut-off is 6 with 91.7 sensitivity and 76.7 specificity for  65 years. Conclusion: These scores have good predictive value for mortality and ICU admission, but NEWS is better especially in  65 years old patient with Covid 19 pneumonia.

 Objective: Early recognition of critical patients is crucial in emergency departments. Many scoring systems are used for it. This study aim determining the prognostic values of these scoring systems for Covid 19 patients. Materials and Methods: This retrospective study was performed between March 2020 -May 2020. 212 patient who have Covid 19 pneumonia were enrolled. National Early Warning Score NEWS, Modified Early Warning Score MEWS and quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment qSOFA scores were calculated according to patients admission data. Receiver operating characteristic ROC analysis was used to determine the diagnostic values of scores and the optimum cut-off values were determined by Youden Index. Results: Twenty-three 10.84 of 212 patients died and 34 16 were admitted to ICU. The AUC values of MEWS, NEWS, and qSOFA for predicting mortality in  65 years old were 0.852 95 confidence interval 0.708-0.997, 0.882 0.741-1.000 and 0.879 0.768-0.990 and 65 years old 0.8540.720-0.987, 0.9310.853-1.000, 0.7760.609-0.944 respectively. For ICU admission AUC values of MEWS, NEWS and qSOFA in 65 years old followed as; 0.8820.783-0.981, 0.9140.817-1.000, 0.8680.764-0.973 and 0.8450.725-0.965, 0.9260.854-0.998, 0.8150.676-0.954 in  65 years old. MEWS and qSOFA optimal cut-off values for mortality were 2 with 90.0 sensitivity 74.7 specificity and 1 with 90.9 sensitivity 78.1 specificity for 65 years, NEWS optimal cut-off is 6 with 91.7 sensitivity and 76.7 specificity for  65 years. Conclusion: These scores have good predictive value for mortality and ICU admission, but NEWS is better especially in  65 years old patient with Covid 19 pneumonia.

 Objective: Early recognition of critical patients is crucial in emergency departments. Many scoring systems are used for it. This study aim determining the prognostic values of these scoring systems for Covid 19 patients. Materials and Methods: This retrospective study was performed between March 2020 -May 2020. 212 patient who have Covid 19 pneumonia were enrolled. National Early Warning Score NEWS, Modified Early Warning Score MEWS and quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment qSOFA scores were calculated according to patients admission data. Receiver operating characteristic ROC analysis was used to determine the diagnostic values of scores and the optimum cut-off values were determined by Youden Index. Results: Twenty-three 10.84 of 212 patients died and 34 16 were admitted to ICU. The AUC values of MEWS, NEWS, and qSOFA for predicting mortality in  65 years old were 0.852 95 confidence interval 0.708-0.997, 0.882 0.741-1.000 and 0.879 0.768-0.990 and 65 years old 0.8540.720-0.987, 0.9310.853-1.000, 0.7760.609-0.944 respectively. For ICU admission AUC values of MEWS, NEWS and qSOFA in 65 years old followed as; 0.8820.783-0.981, 0.9140.817-1.000, 0.8680.764-0.973 and 0.8450.725-0.965, 0.9260.854-0.998, 0.8150.676-0.954 in  65 years old. MEWS and qSOFA optimal cut-off values for mortality were 2 with 90.0 sensitivity 74.7 specificity and 1 with 90.9 sensitivity 78.1 specificity for 65 years, NEWS optimal cut-off is 6 with 91.7 sensitivity and 76.7 specificity for  65 years. Conclusion: These scores have good predictive value for mortality and ICU admission, but NEWS is better especially in  65 years old patient with Covid 19 pneumonia.

 Amaç: Acil servislerde kritik hastaların erken tanınması önemlidir. Bunun için birçok puanlama sistemi kullanılmaktadır. Bu çalışma, bu sistemlerin Covid 19 pnömonisinde prognostik değerlerini incelemiştir. Gereç ve Yöntem: Bu retrospektif çalışma Mart 2020- Mayıs 2020 tarihleri arasında yapıldı. Çalışmaya Covid 19 pnömonisi olan 212 hasta dahil edildi. Hastaların National Early Warning Score NEWS, Modifiye Early Warning Score MEWS ve quick sequential organ failure assesment qSOFA puanları hesaplandı. Tanısal değerlerinin belirlenmesinde ROC analizi kullanıldı. Optimum eşik değerleri Youden İndeksi ile belirlendi. Bulgular: Toplam 212 hastanın 23ü 10.84 öldü, 34ü 16 yoğun bakıma alındı. MEWS, NEWS ve qSOFAnın 65 yaş altı ölüm oranını öngörmeye yönelik eğri altında kalan alanları sırasıyla 0.852 95 güven aralığı 0.708-0.997, 0.882 0.741-1.000 ve 0.879 0.768-0.990 ve 65 yaş üstü hastalarda ise sırasıyla 0.854 güven aralığı 0.720-0.987, 0.9310.853-1.000, 0.7760.609-0.944 idi. MEWS, NEWS ve qSOFAnın yoğun bakım yatışını öngörme değerleri 65 yaş altı için sırasıyla 0.8820.783-0.981, 0.9140.817-1.000, 0.8680.764-0.973 iken 65 yaş üstü hastalar için 0.8450.725-0.965, 0.9260.854-0.998, 0.8150.676-0.954 idi. Ölüm oranı için optimal eşik değerleri 65 yaş altında; MEWS 2 90 duyarlılık, 74.7 özgüllük, qSOFA 1 90.9 duyarlılık, 78.1 özgüllük iken 65 yaş üstü hastalarda NEWS 6 91.7 duyarlılık, 76.7 özgüllük bulundu. Sonuç: Bu skorlar ölüm ve yoğun bakım yatış oranını öngörmede değerli bulunmuştur, ancak NEWS skorunun özellikle 65 yaş üstü Covid 19 pnömonisi olan hastalarda daha iyi bir gösterge olduğu görülmüştür.

Makale detayları

The Ability of Early Warning Scores to Predict Mortality in Covid 19 Pneumonia

Yazarlar:

Yunus Emre Arık | Hatice Topcu

Yayıncı:

Balıkesir University

Ana Başlıklar:

Sağlık Kurumları Yönetimi

Dergi:

Balıkesir Sağlık Bilimleri Dergisi Vol.12 Issue 3, pp.571-578

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

9/2023

Belge Dili:

İngilizce

Document ID (Org No.):

2001298393

pISSN:

2146-9601

mortality

prediction

covid 19

pneumoniatahmin

covid 19

pnömoni

ölüm oranı

Sayı

Makale detayları

Yazarlar: Yunus Emre Arık | Hatice Topcu

Yayıncı: Balıkesir University

Ana Başlıklar: Sağlık Kurumları Yönetimi

Dergi: Balıkesir Sağlık Bilimleri Dergisi Vol.12 Issue 3, pp.571-578

Belge Tipi: Makale

Yayın Tarihi: 9/2023

Belge Dili: İngilizce

Document ID (Org No.): 2001298393

pISSN: 2146-9601

Sayı

Yazarlar:

Yunus Emre Arık | Hatice Topcu

Yayıncı:

Balıkesir University

Ana Başlıklar:

Sağlık Kurumları Yönetimi

Dergi:

Balıkesir Sağlık Bilimleri Dergisi Vol.12 Issue 3, pp.571-578

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

9/2023

Belge Dili:

İngilizce

Document ID (Org No.):

2001298393

pISSN:

2146-9601