Trade Balance, Real Exchange Rate and Trade Policy Uncertainty in Türkiye: Evidence from the SVAR Approach

Fatma Ünlü

Makale detayları

Trade Balance, Real Exchange Rate and Trade Policy Uncertainty in Türkiye: Evidence from the SVAR Approach

Yazarlar:

Fatma Ünlü

Yayıncı:

Istanbul University

Ana Başlıklar:

Ekonometri (Diğer)

Dergi:

EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics Issue 40, pp.63-75

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

6/2024

Belge Dili:

İngilizce

Document ID (Org No.):

2001324477

pISSN:

2651-396X

Anahtar kelimeler:

Özet:

 In recent years, the trade wars, the global economic crisis and protectionist policies have created a climate of trade policy uncertainty in the world economy. The increased uncertainty had important impacts on economic variables, in particular on foreign trade and exchange rates. As a result, the attention of researchers and policy makers has been focused on this area. Also, it is a well-known fact that uncertainties have a greater impact on developing countries with economies that are more vulnerable to shocks and risks. From all of these facts, the aim of this study is to investigate the relationships between exchange rate, trade balance and trade policy uncertainty by using structural VAR SVAR analysis for the 1960:Q1-2020:Q4 period in Türkiye. The results show that there exists a significant relationship between trade policy uncertainty, the trade balance and the exchange rate in the long term. The response of trade policy uncertainty to shocks to the trade balance and to the exchange rate is statistically significant and negative. The response of the exchange rate to trade balance shocks is statistically significant and positive. An increase in the trade balance increases the exchange rate and reduces trade policy uncertainty.

 In recent years, the trade wars, the global economic crisis and protectionist policies have created a climate of trade policy uncertainty in the world economy. The increased uncertainty had important impacts on economic variables, in particular on foreign trade and exchange rates. As a result, the attention of researchers and policy makers has been focused on this area. Also, it is a well-known fact that uncertainties have a greater impact on developing countries with economies that are more vulnerable to shocks and risks. From all of these facts, the aim of this study is to investigate the relationships between exchange rate, trade balance and trade policy uncertainty by using structural VAR SVAR analysis for the 1960:Q1-2020:Q4 period in Türkiye. The results show that there exists a significant relationship between trade policy uncertainty, the trade balance and the exchange rate in the long term. The response of trade policy uncertainty to shocks to the trade balance and to the exchange rate is statistically significant and negative. The response of the exchange rate to trade balance shocks is statistically significant and positive. An increase in the trade balance increases the exchange rate and reduces trade policy uncertainty.

 In recent years, the trade wars, the global economic crisis and protectionist policies have created a climate of trade policy uncertainty in the world economy. The increased uncertainty had important impacts on economic variables, in particular on foreign trade and exchange rates. As a result, the attention of researchers and policy makers has been focused on this area. Also, it is a well-known fact that uncertainties have a greater impact on developing countries with economies that are more vulnerable to shocks and risks. From all of these facts, the aim of this study is to investigate the relationships between exchange rate, trade balance and trade policy uncertainty by using structural VAR SVAR analysis for the 1960:Q1-2020:Q4 period in Türkiye. The results show that there exists a significant relationship between trade policy uncertainty, the trade balance and the exchange rate in the long term. The response of trade policy uncertainty to shocks to the trade balance and to the exchange rate is statistically significant and negative. The response of the exchange rate to trade balance shocks is statistically significant and positive. An increase in the trade balance increases the exchange rate and reduces trade policy uncertainty.

 In recent years, the trade wars, the global economic crisis and protectionist policies have created a climate of trade policy uncertainty in the world economy. The increased uncertainty had important impacts on economic variables, in particular on foreign trade and exchange rates. As a result, the attention of researchers and policy makers has been focused on this area. Also, it is a well-known fact that uncertainties have a greater impact on developing countries with economies that are more vulnerable to shocks and risks. From all of these facts, the aim of this study is to investigate the relationships between exchange rate, trade balance and trade policy uncertainty by using structural VAR SVAR analysis for the 1960:Q1-2020:Q4 period in Türkiye. The results show that there exists a significant relationship between trade policy uncertainty, the trade balance and the exchange rate in the long term. The response of trade policy uncertainty to shocks to the trade balance and to the exchange rate is statistically significant and negative. The response of the exchange rate to trade balance shocks is statistically significant and positive. An increase in the trade balance increases the exchange rate and reduces trade policy uncertainty.

Makale detayları

Trade Balance, Real Exchange Rate and Trade Policy Uncertainty in Türkiye: Evidence from the SVAR Approach

Yazarlar: Fatma Ünlü

Yayıncı: Istanbul University

Ana Başlıklar: Ekonometri (Diğer)

Dergi: EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics Issue 40, pp.63-75

Belge Tipi: Makale

Yayın Tarihi: 6/2024

Belge Dili: İngilizce

Document ID (Org No.): 2001324477

pISSN: 2651-396X

Trade

exchange rate

trade policy uncertainty

structural VAR

Sayı

Yazarlar:

Fatma Ünlü

Yayıncı:

Istanbul University

Ana Başlıklar:

Ekonometri (Diğer)

Dergi:

EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics Issue 40, pp.63-75

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

6/2024

Belge Dili:

İngilizce

Document ID (Org No.):

2001324477

pISSN:

2651-396X