Seismic hazard assessment of Turkey by statistical approaches

Serpil ÜNAL; Salih ÇELEBİOĞLU; Bülent ÖZMEN

Makale detayları

Seismic hazard assessment of Turkey by statistical approaches

Yazarlar:

Serpil ÜNAL | Salih ÇELEBİOĞLU | Bülent ÖZMEN

Yayıncı:

TUBITAK

Dergi:

Turkish Journal of Earth Sciences 2014 Vol.23 Issue 3, pp.350-360

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

5/2014

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2000731616

Sıklık:

İki Aylık

eISSN:

1303-619X

pISSN:

1300-0985

Özet:

 

In this study, 2 probabilistic methods are presented for seismic hazard assessment in Turkey: Markov chains based on modeling the transition probabilities of states (related to the presence or absence of the earthquakes having magnitude M >= 4 during the time interval Dt = 0.07 years in each region of Turkey located between 36°N and 42°N and 26°E and 45°E), and the Poisson model, used for computing occurrence probability and recurrence periods of earthquakes. In particular, it should be stated that in this study, our purpose is not to compare the results obtained from these 2 methods. The main purpose is to show that earthquakes occurring in Turkey can be modeled successfully by both a Markov chain, in which we have a different zoning, and the Poisson model, which can determine seismic hazard.

 

In this study, 2 probabilistic methods are presented for seismic hazard assessment in Turkey: Markov chains based on modeling the transition probabilities of states (related to the presence or absence of the earthquakes having magnitude M >= 4 during the time interval Dt = 0.07 years in each region of Turkey located between 36°N and 42°N and 26°E and 45°E), and the Poisson model, used for computing occurrence probability and recurrence periods of earthquakes. In particular, it should be stated that in this study, our purpose is not to compare the results obtained from these 2 methods. The main purpose is to show that earthquakes occurring in Turkey can be modeled successfully by both a Markov chain, in which we have a different zoning, and the Poisson model, which can determine seismic hazard.

Makale detayları

Seismic hazard assessment of Turkey by statistical approaches

Yazarlar: Serpil ÜNAL | Salih ÇELEBİOĞLU | Bülent ÖZMEN

Yayıncı: TUBITAK

Dergi: Turkish Journal of Earth Sciences 2014 Vol.23 Issue 3, pp.350-360

Belge Tipi: Makale

Yayın Tarihi: 5/2014

Belge Dili: Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.): 2000731616

Sıklık: İki Aylık

eISSN: 1303-619X

pISSN: 1300-0985

Sayı

Yazarlar:

Serpil ÜNAL | Salih ÇELEBİOĞLU | Bülent ÖZMEN

Yayıncı:

TUBITAK

Dergi:

Turkish Journal of Earth Sciences 2014 Vol.23 Issue 3, pp.350-360

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

5/2014

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2000731616

Sıklık:

İki Aylık

eISSN:

1303-619X

pISSN:

1300-0985