A Dynamic Model of the Spread of Intrastate War

Ali FİSUNOĞLU

doi:https://doi.org/10.20991/allazimuth.616008

Makale detayları

A Dynamic Model of the Spread of Intrastate War

Yazarlar:

Ali FİSUNOĞLU

Yayıncı:

Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research, İhsan Doğramacı Peace Foundation

Ana Başlıklar:

Sosyoloji & antropoloji

Dergi:

All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace 2020 Vol.9 Issue 1, pp.23-59

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

12/2019

Belge Dili:

İngilizce

Document ID (Org No.):

2000664360

Sıklık:

İki Yıllık

eISSN:

2757-9026

pISSN:

2146-7757

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.20991/allazimuth.616008

Özet:

 


The spread of intrastate war has
gained increasing prominence, especially in the recent past. This paper studies
the spread of intrastate war as a result of another intrastate war in a
neighboring country using a system dynamics modeling approach. The model
employed is a modification of the SIR, a spread of disease model taken from
epidemiology. Revising the SIR model with relevant political and economic
variables, the model seeks to explain the mechanism through which an intrastate
conflict is spread from an "infected" country to a
"susceptible" country. Although diffusion and contagion of civil wars
have been widely examined in the past, a dynamic modeling approach has not been
adequately used in this area. Consistent with the existing literature, the results
of the model suggest that refugees are a means to carry the conflict disease
from the initial country by disturbing economic and social dynamics of the host
whereas political capacity acts as the immune system, reducing the likelihood
of conflict contagion. The results of the simulations, obtained using
theoretical parameters, are mainly consistent with the expectations.

.

Makale detayları

A Dynamic Model of the Spread of Intrastate War

Yazarlar: Ali FİSUNOĞLU

Yayıncı: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research, İhsan Doğramacı Peace Foundation

Ana Başlıklar: Sosyoloji & antropoloji

Dergi: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace 2020 Vol.9 Issue 1, pp.23-59

Belge Tipi: Makale

Yayın Tarihi: 12/2019

Belge Dili: İngilizce

Document ID (Org No.): 2000664360

Sıklık: İki Yıllık

eISSN: 2757-9026

pISSN: 2146-7757

DOI: https://doi.org/10.20991/allazimuth.616008

Sayı

Yazarlar:

Ali FİSUNOĞLU

Yayıncı:

Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research, İhsan Doğramacı Peace Foundation

Ana Başlıklar:

Sosyoloji & antropoloji

Dergi:

All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace 2020 Vol.9 Issue 1, pp.23-59

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

12/2019

Belge Dili:

İngilizce

Document ID (Org No.):

2000664360

Sıklık:

İki Yıllık

eISSN:

2757-9026

pISSN:

2146-7757

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.20991/allazimuth.616008