Changes and trends observed in the mean air temperatures in Turkey during the period of 1950–2022

Hakan Güler; Ecmel Erlat

Makale detayları

Changes and trends observed in the mean air temperatures in Turkey during the period of 1950–2022

Yazarlar:

Hakan Güler | Ecmel Erlat

Yayıncı:

Ege University

Ana Başlıklar:

İklim Değişikliği Süreçleri | Beşeri Coğrafya

Dergi:

Ege Coğrafya Dergisi Vol.32 Issue 1, pp.1-17

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

6/2023

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001295211

pISSN:

2636-8056

Anahtar kelimeler:

Özet:

 In this study, the changes and trends observed in average air temperatures in Turkey for the period 1950-2022 are analyzed annually and seasonally. For this purpose, 8053 grid cell data covering Turkey from the ERA5-Land dataset produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting ECMWF were used. It has been determined that the increase in Turkeys mean air temperature over the last 73 years is 1.31C and 1.46C, respectively, according to the simple linear regression and Mann-Kendall M-K rank correlation coefficient analyses at a statistically significant level of 0.001. The results reveal that over the last 73 years, annual mean air temperatures in Turkey have shown a warming trend of 0.20C per decade, almost 3 times the global average. The warming trend that started in the first half of the 1990s has become even stronger since the 21st century. The highest annual mean air temperatures measured in the last 73 years belong to the period after 2005, except for 2011, and the highest annual average temperatures were observed in 2010, 2018 and 2020, respectively. The strongest increasing trend in seasonal mean air temperatures has been observed in the summer season, with an increase of 1.61C 1.68C over the last 73 years according to the simple linear regression M-K analysis at a statistically significant level of 0.001. Summer is followed by the spring and fall seasons, respectively. According to simple linear regression and Mann-Kendall M-K rank correlation coefficient analyses, mean air temperatures in Turkey have increased by 1.39C 1.39C in the spring season and 0.88C 1.10C in the autumn season in the last 73 years. These trends in mean air temperatures in Turkey are an important indicator of the magnitude and potential impacts of climate change.

 In this study, the changes and trends observed in average air temperatures in Turkey for the period 1950-2022 are analyzed annually and seasonally. For this purpose, 8053 grid cell data covering Turkey from the ERA5-Land dataset produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting ECMWF were used. It has been determined that the increase in Turkeys mean air temperature over the last 73 years is 1.31C and 1.46C, respectively, according to the simple linear regression and Mann-Kendall M-K rank correlation coefficient analyses at a statistically significant level of 0.001. The results reveal that over the last 73 years, annual mean air temperatures in Turkey have shown a warming trend of 0.20C per decade, almost 3 times the global average. The warming trend that started in the first half of the 1990s has become even stronger since the 21st century. The highest annual mean air temperatures measured in the last 73 years belong to the period after 2005, except for 2011, and the highest annual average temperatures were observed in 2010, 2018 and 2020, respectively. The strongest increasing trend in seasonal mean air temperatures has been observed in the summer season, with an increase of 1.61C 1.68C over the last 73 years according to the simple linear regression M-K analysis at a statistically significant level of 0.001. Summer is followed by the spring and fall seasons, respectively. According to simple linear regression and Mann-Kendall M-K rank correlation coefficient analyses, mean air temperatures in Turkey have increased by 1.39C 1.39C in the spring season and 0.88C 1.10C in the autumn season in the last 73 years. These trends in mean air temperatures in Turkey are an important indicator of the magnitude and potential impacts of climate change.

 In this study, the changes and trends observed in average air temperatures in Turkey for the period 1950-2022 are analyzed annually and seasonally. For this purpose, 8053 grid cell data covering Turkey from the ERA5-Land dataset produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting ECMWF were used. It has been determined that the increase in Turkeys mean air temperature over the last 73 years is 1.31C and 1.46C, respectively, according to the simple linear regression and Mann-Kendall M-K rank correlation coefficient analyses at a statistically significant level of 0.001. The results reveal that over the last 73 years, annual mean air temperatures in Turkey have shown a warming trend of 0.20C per decade, almost 3 times the global average. The warming trend that started in the first half of the 1990s has become even stronger since the 21st century. The highest annual mean air temperatures measured in the last 73 years belong to the period after 2005, except for 2011, and the highest annual average temperatures were observed in 2010, 2018 and 2020, respectively. The strongest increasing trend in seasonal mean air temperatures has been observed in the summer season, with an increase of 1.61C 1.68C over the last 73 years according to the simple linear regression M-K analysis at a statistically significant level of 0.001. Summer is followed by the spring and fall seasons, respectively. According to simple linear regression and Mann-Kendall M-K rank correlation coefficient analyses, mean air temperatures in Turkey have increased by 1.39C 1.39C in the spring season and 0.88C 1.10C in the autumn season in the last 73 years. These trends in mean air temperatures in Turkey are an important indicator of the magnitude and potential impacts of climate change.

 Çalışmada 1950-2022 dönemi için Türkiyede ortalama hava sıcaklıklarında gözlenen değişim ve eğilimler yıllık ve mevsimlik olarak incelenmiştir. Bu amaçla Avrupa Orta Vadeli Hava Tahmin Merkezi ECMWF tarafından üretilen ERA5-Land veri setinin Türkiyeyi kapsayan 8053 grid hücre verilerinden yararlanılmıştır. Son 73 yılda Türkiyenin ortalama hava sıcaklığındaki artış, basit doğrusal regresyon ve Mann-Kendall M-K sıra ilişki katsayısı analizlerine göre istatistiki olarak 0.001 anlamlılık seviyesinde sırasıyla 1.31C ve 1.46C olduğu belirlenmiştir. Sonuçlar son 73 yıllık dönemde Türkiyede yıllık ortalama hava sıcaklıklarının her on yıl için 0.20C olmak üzere küresel ortalamanın neredeyse 3 katına yakın bir ısınma eğilimi gösterdiğini ortaya koymaktadır. 1990lı yılların ilk yarısında başlayan ısınma eğilimi 21. yüzyılın itibaren daha da kuvvetlenmiştir. Nitekim son 73 yılda ölçülen en yüksek yıllık ortalama sıcaklıklar 2011 yılı hariç, 2005 yılından sonraki döneme aittir. 1950-2022 döneminde yıllık ortalama sıcaklıklarda en yüksek değerler sırasıyla 2010, 2018 ve 2020 yıllarında gözlenmiştir. Mevsimlik ortalama hava sıcaklıklarında en kuvvetli artış eğilimi, istatistiki olarak 0.001 anlamlılık seviyesinde basit doğrusal regresyon M-K analizine göre son 73 yılda 1.61 C 1.68C ile yaz mevsiminde gözlenmektedir. Yaz mevsimini sırasıyla ilkbahar ve sonbahar mevsimleri izlemektedir. Son 73 yılda Türkiyede basit doğrusal regresyon ve Mann-Kendall M-K sıra ilişki katsayısı analizlerine göre ilkbahar mevsimi ortalama hava sıcaklıkları 1.39C 1.39C, sonbahar mevsiminde ise 0.88C 1.10C artmıştır. Türkiyede ortalama hava sıcaklarında gözlenen bu eğilimler, iklim değişikliğinin büyüklüğünün ve olası etkilerinin önemli bir göstergesidir.

Makale detayları

Changes and trends observed in the mean air temperatures in Turkey during the period of 1950–2022

Yazarlar:

Hakan Güler | Ecmel Erlat

Yayıncı:

Ege University

Ana Başlıklar:

İklim Değişikliği Süreçleri | Beşeri Coğrafya

Dergi:

Ege Coğrafya Dergisi Vol.32 Issue 1, pp.1-17

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

6/2023

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001295211

pISSN:

2636-8056

climate change

mean air temperature

Türkiye

ERA5

time-series analysisiklim değişikliği

ortalama hava sıcaklığı

Türkiye

ERA5

zaman dizisi analizi

Sayı

Makale detayları

Yazarlar: Hakan Güler | Ecmel Erlat

Yayıncı: Ege University

Ana Başlıklar: İklim Değişikliği Süreçleri | Beşeri Coğrafya

Dergi: Ege Coğrafya Dergisi Vol.32 Issue 1, pp.1-17

Belge Tipi: Makale

Yayın Tarihi: 6/2023

Belge Dili: Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.): 2001295211

pISSN: 2636-8056

Sayı

Yazarlar:

Hakan Güler | Ecmel Erlat

Yayıncı:

Ege University

Ana Başlıklar:

İklim Değişikliği Süreçleri | Beşeri Coğrafya

Dergi:

Ege Coğrafya Dergisi Vol.32 Issue 1, pp.1-17

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

6/2023

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001295211

pISSN:

2636-8056