The Problem of External Dependence in Energy:  An Empirical Analysis for Turkey

Arman Zafer Yalçın; Metin Dogan

Makale detayları

The Problem of External Dependence in Energy: An Empirical Analysis for Turkey

Yazarlar:

Arman Zafer Yalçın | Metin Dogan

Yayıncı:

Manisa Celal Bayar University

Ana Başlıklar:

Maliye Çalışmaları (Diğer)

Dergi:

Yönetim ve Ekonomi Dergisi Vol.30 Issue 2, pp.203-223

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

6/2023

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001291567

pISSN:

1302-0064

Anahtar kelimeler:

Özet:

 As an energy source, fossil fuel has been one of the most important elements of production since the Industrial Revolution. However, it is seen that fossil fuels are not evenly distributed in every part of the world. While this situation has made some countries energy exporters, countries that do not have fossil fuel resources have become importers. If a country wants to increase the amount of production and raise the level of social welfare, it must supply energy needs from external sources. This situation has led to the development of dependency relations in the energy sector. Following the Ukraine-Russia War that started in the first months of 2022, energy dependency has been recognized as a risk factor for energy supply security. Therefore, the European Union has implemented a new strategy to reduce energy dependency, such as the transition to renewable energy and diversification of energy-importing countries. As a country heavily dependent on energy imports, Turkey also needs to take steps to reduce its energy dependence. The results obtained from the empirical analysis conducted in this study support this conclusion. As a result of the Johansen cointegration test conducted within the scope of the analysis, there is a positive relationship between primary energy supply and fossil fuel consumption and energy dependence in the short and long run for the period 1990-2020 in Turkey. There is a negative relationship between energy efficiency and energy dependence. Contrary to expectations, there is a negative relationship between Gross Domestic Product GDP and energy dependence. In this model, no relationship could be established between energy dependence and renewable energy, which is the last variable in the analysis. Key Words: Energy dependency, Energy efficiency, Renewable energy, Primary energy supply, Johansen cointegration test JEL Classification: C32, Q20, Q40.

 As an energy source, fossil fuel has been one of the most important elements of production since the Industrial Revolution. However, it is seen that fossil fuels are not evenly distributed in every part of the world. While this situation has made some countries energy exporters, countries that do not have fossil fuel resources have become importers. If a country wants to increase the amount of production and raise the level of social welfare, it must supply energy needs from external sources. This situation has led to the development of dependency relations in the energy sector. Following the Ukraine-Russia War that started in the first months of 2022, energy dependency has been recognized as a risk factor for energy supply security. Therefore, the European Union has implemented a new strategy to reduce energy dependency, such as the transition to renewable energy and diversification of energy-importing countries. As a country heavily dependent on energy imports, Turkey also needs to take steps to reduce its energy dependence. The results obtained from the empirical analysis conducted in this study support this conclusion. As a result of the Johansen cointegration test conducted within the scope of the analysis, there is a positive relationship between primary energy supply and fossil fuel consumption and energy dependence in the short and long run for the period 1990-2020 in Turkey. There is a negative relationship between energy efficiency and energy dependence. Contrary to expectations, there is a negative relationship between Gross Domestic Product GDP and energy dependence. In this model, no relationship could be established between energy dependence and renewable energy, which is the last variable in the analysis. Key Words: Energy dependency, Energy efficiency, Renewable energy, Primary energy supply, Johansen cointegration test JEL Classification: C32, Q20, Q40.

 As an energy source, fossil fuel has been one of the most important elements of production since the Industrial Revolution. However, it is seen that fossil fuels are not evenly distributed in every part of the world. While this situation has made some countries energy exporters, countries that do not have fossil fuel resources have become importers. If a country wants to increase the amount of production and raise the level of social welfare, it must supply energy needs from external sources. This situation has led to the development of dependency relations in the energy sector. Following the Ukraine-Russia War that started in the first months of 2022, energy dependency has been recognized as a risk factor for energy supply security. Therefore, the European Union has implemented a new strategy to reduce energy dependency, such as the transition to renewable energy and diversification of energy-importing countries. As a country heavily dependent on energy imports, Turkey also needs to take steps to reduce its energy dependence. The results obtained from the empirical analysis conducted in this study support this conclusion. As a result of the Johansen cointegration test conducted within the scope of the analysis, there is a positive relationship between primary energy supply and fossil fuel consumption and energy dependence in the short and long run for the period 1990-2020 in Turkey. There is a negative relationship between energy efficiency and energy dependence. Contrary to expectations, there is a negative relationship between Gross Domestic Product GDP and energy dependence. In this model, no relationship could be established between energy dependence and renewable energy, which is the last variable in the analysis. Key Words: Energy dependency, Energy efficiency, Renewable energy, Primary energy supply, Johansen cointegration test JEL Classification: C32, Q20, Q40.

 Bir enerji kaynağı olarak fosil yakıt, Sanayi Devriminden itibaren üretimin en önemli unsurlarından biri olmuştur. Ancak fosil yakıtların dünyanın her yerinde eşit bir şekilde dağılım göstermediği görülmektedir. Bu durum bazı ülkeleri enerji ihracatçısı durumuna getirirken fosil yakıt kaynağı bulunmayan ülkeleri ise ithalatçı konuma getirmiştir. Yeterli enerji kaynağına sahip olmayan ülkeler üretim miktarını ve toplumsal refah düzeyini yükseltmek için ihtiyaç duydukları enerjiyi dış kaynaklardan tedarik etmek zorundadır. Bu durum enerji sektöründe bağımlılık ilişkilerinin gelişmesine neden olmaktadır. 2022nin ilk aylarında başlayan Ukrayna-Rusya Savaşının ardından enerji bağımlılığı enerji arz güvenliği açısından bir risk unsuru olarak kabul edilmiştir. Bu yüzden Avrupa Birliği enerji bağımlılığının azaltılması için yenilenebilir enerjiye geçiş, enerji ithalatçısı ülkelerin çeşitlendirilmesi gibi yeni bir stratejiyi hayata geçirmiştir. Yoğun bir biçimde enerji ithalatına bağımlı bir ülke olan Türkiyenin de enerji bağımlılığı konusunda adım atması gerekmektedir. Bu çalışma kapsamında yapılan ampirik analizden elde edilen sonuçlarda bu sonucu desteklemektedir. Analiz kapsamında yapılan Johansen eşbütünleşme testi sonucunda, 1990-2020 döneminde Türkiyede birincil enerji arzı ve fosil yakıt tüketimi ile enerji bağımlılığı arasında kısa ve uzun dönemde pozitif bir ilişki vardır. Enerji verimliliği ile enerji bağımlılığı arasında negatif bir ilişki söz konusudur. Analizde yer alan diğer bağımsız değişkenlerden biri olan Gayri Safi Yurtiçi Hasıla ve enerji bağımlılığı arasında beklentinin aksine negatif bir ilişki tespit edilmiştir. Analizdeki son değişken olan yenilenebilir enerji ve enerji bağımlılığı arasında ise bu model kapsamında bir ilişki kurulamamıştır. Anahtar Kelimeler: Enerji bağımlılığı, Enerji verimliliği, Yenilenebilir enerji, Birincil Enerji Arzı, Johansen Eşbütünleşme Testi JEL Sınıflandırması: C32, Q20, Q40.

Makale detayları

The Problem of External Dependence in Energy: An Empirical Analysis for Turkey

Yazarlar:

Arman Zafer Yalçın | Metin Dogan

Yayıncı:

Manisa Celal Bayar University

Ana Başlıklar:

Maliye Çalışmaları (Diğer)

Dergi:

Yönetim ve Ekonomi Dergisi Vol.30 Issue 2, pp.203-223

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

6/2023

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001291567

pISSN:

1302-0064

Energy dependency

Energy efficiency

Renewable energy

Primary energy supply

Johansen cointegration testEnerji Bağımlılığı

Enerji Verimliliği

Yenilenebilir Enerji

Sayı

Makale detayları

Yazarlar: Arman Zafer Yalçın | Metin Dogan

Yayıncı: Manisa Celal Bayar University

Ana Başlıklar: Maliye Çalışmaları (Diğer)

Dergi: Yönetim ve Ekonomi Dergisi Vol.30 Issue 2, pp.203-223

Belge Tipi: Makale

Yayın Tarihi: 6/2023

Belge Dili: Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.): 2001291567

pISSN: 1302-0064

Sayı

Yazarlar:

Arman Zafer Yalçın | Metin Dogan

Yayıncı:

Manisa Celal Bayar University

Ana Başlıklar:

Maliye Çalışmaları (Diğer)

Dergi:

Yönetim ve Ekonomi Dergisi Vol.30 Issue 2, pp.203-223

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

6/2023

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001291567

pISSN:

1302-0064