Evaluation of drought with Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) in the Aegean Region (1951-2022)

Onur Kayan; Ecmel Erlat

Makale detayları

Evaluation of drought with Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) in the Aegean Region (1951-2022)

Yazarlar:

Onur Kayan | Ecmel Erlat

Yayıncı:

Ege University

Ana Başlıklar:

Ziraat Mühendisliği (Diğer)

Dergi:

Ege Üniversitesi Ziraat Fakültesi Dergisi Vol.61 Issue 2, pp.249-258

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

1/2024

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001322035

pISSN:

1018-8851

Anahtar kelimeler:

Özet:

 Objective: Rising temperatures due to climate change, increasing evaporation conditions and the decreasing trend in precipitation observed in some regions affect the frequency, severity, duration and spatial distribution of drought events. The aim of this study is to evaluate the temporal change of drought conditions in the Aegean Region, which has high agricultural efficiency, with the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index SPEI method. Material and Methods: SPEI data for the period 1951-2022 of 8 grid cells covering the Aegean Region were used. SPEI values of 3, 6 and 12 months time scales were examined to determine the temporal changes of meteorological, agricultural and hydrological droughts in the Aegean Region. A period in which the monthly SPEI value was equal to or lower than -1 was defined as drought. Results: Time series show that drought events in the Aegean Region have increased since the mid-1980s and have shifted towards drier conditions. It has been observed that the years 2001, 2007, 2008, 2016, and 2021 stand out as significantly dry years in the region on the SPEI-3-6 and 12 time scales. Conclusion: The tendency to shift towards drier conditions in the region will cause significant changes in the amount of moisture stored in the soil and surfaceunderground water resources. This situation will directly affect agricultural efficiency and production. While the aridification trend negatively affects the regional economy, it can be said that there will be serious decreases in the income level, especially in rural regions.

 Objective: Rising temperatures due to climate change, increasing evaporation conditions and the decreasing trend in precipitation observed in some regions affect the frequency, severity, duration and spatial distribution of drought events. The aim of this study is to evaluate the temporal change of drought conditions in the Aegean Region, which has high agricultural efficiency, with the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index SPEI method. Material and Methods: SPEI data for the period 1951-2022 of 8 grid cells covering the Aegean Region were used. SPEI values of 3, 6 and 12 months time scales were examined to determine the temporal changes of meteorological, agricultural and hydrological droughts in the Aegean Region. A period in which the monthly SPEI value was equal to or lower than -1 was defined as drought. Results: Time series show that drought events in the Aegean Region have increased since the mid-1980s and have shifted towards drier conditions. It has been observed that the years 2001, 2007, 2008, 2016, and 2021 stand out as significantly dry years in the region on the SPEI-3-6 and 12 time scales. Conclusion: The tendency to shift towards drier conditions in the region will cause significant changes in the amount of moisture stored in the soil and surfaceunderground water resources. This situation will directly affect agricultural efficiency and production. While the aridification trend negatively affects the regional economy, it can be said that there will be serious decreases in the income level, especially in rural regions.

 Objective: Rising temperatures due to climate change, increasing evaporation conditions and the decreasing trend in precipitation observed in some regions affect the frequency, severity, duration and spatial distribution of drought events. The aim of this study is to evaluate the temporal change of drought conditions in the Aegean Region, which has high agricultural efficiency, with the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index SPEI method. Material and Methods: SPEI data for the period 1951-2022 of 8 grid cells covering the Aegean Region were used. SPEI values of 3, 6 and 12 months time scales were examined to determine the temporal changes of meteorological, agricultural and hydrological droughts in the Aegean Region. A period in which the monthly SPEI value was equal to or lower than -1 was defined as drought. Results: Time series show that drought events in the Aegean Region have increased since the mid-1980s and have shifted towards drier conditions. It has been observed that the years 2001, 2007, 2008, 2016, and 2021 stand out as significantly dry years in the region on the SPEI-3-6 and 12 time scales. Conclusion: The tendency to shift towards drier conditions in the region will cause significant changes in the amount of moisture stored in the soil and surfaceunderground water resources. This situation will directly affect agricultural efficiency and production. While the aridification trend negatively affects the regional economy, it can be said that there will be serious decreases in the income level, especially in rural regions.

 Amaç: İklim değişikliğine bağlı olarak yükselen sıcaklık, artan buharlaşma koşulları ve bazı bölgelerde gözlemlenen yağışlardaki azalma eğilimi kuraklık olaylarının frekansını, şiddetini, süresini ve alansal dağılışını etkilemektedir. Bu çalışmanın amacı, tarımsal verimliliği yüksek olan Ege Bölgesinin kuraklık koşullarının zamansal değişimini Standardize Yağış ve Evapotranspirasyon İndisi SPEI yöntemiyle değerlendirmektir. Materyal ve Yöntem: Ege Bölgesini kapsayan 8 grid hücresinin 1951- 2022 dönemine ait SPEI verileri kullanılmıştır. Ege Bölgesindeki meteorolojik, tarımsal ve hidrolojik kuraklıkların zamansal değişimini belirlemek için 3, 6 ve 12 aylık zaman ölçeğine ait SPEI değerleri incelenmiştir. Aylık SPEI değerinin -1e eşit veya daha düşük olduğu dönem kuraklık olarak tanımlanmıştır. Araştırma Bulguları: Zaman serileri Ege Bölgesinde kuraklık olaylarının 1980li yılların ortalarından itibaren arttığını ve daha kurak koşullara doğru kaydığını göstermektedir. SPEI-3-6 ve 12 zaman ölçeğinde ortak olarak bölgede 2001, 2007, 2008, 2016 ve 2021 yıllarının belirgin şekilde kurak yıllar olarak öne çıktığı görülmüştür. Sonuç: Bölgede daha kurak koşullara doğru kayma eğilimi başta toprakta depolanan nem miktarı ve yerüstüyer altı su kaynaklarında önemli değişmelere neden olacaktır. Bu durum tarımsal verim ve üretimi doğrudan etkileyecektir. Kuraklaşma eğilimi bölgesel ekonomiyi olumsuz etkilerken özellikle kırsal bölgelerdeki gelir düzeyinde ciddi azalmalar yaşanacağı söylenebilir.

Makale detayları

Evaluation of drought with Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) in the Aegean Region (1951-2022)

Yazarlar:

Onur Kayan | Ecmel Erlat

Yayıncı:

Ege University

Ana Başlıklar:

Ziraat Mühendisliği (Diğer)

Dergi:

Ege Üniversitesi Ziraat Fakültesi Dergisi Vol.61 Issue 2, pp.249-258

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

1/2024

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001322035

pISSN:

1018-8851

Evapotranspiration

climate change

drought indices

drought severity

time-series analysisEvapotranspirasyon

iklim değişikliği

kuraklık indisleri

kuraklık şiddeti

zaman dizisi analizi

Sayı

Makale detayları

Yazarlar: Onur Kayan | Ecmel Erlat

Yayıncı: Ege University

Ana Başlıklar: Ziraat Mühendisliği (Diğer)

Dergi: Ege Üniversitesi Ziraat Fakültesi Dergisi Vol.61 Issue 2, pp.249-258

Belge Tipi: Makale

Yayın Tarihi: 1/2024

Belge Dili: Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.): 2001322035

pISSN: 1018-8851

Sayı

Yazarlar:

Onur Kayan | Ecmel Erlat

Yayıncı:

Ege University

Ana Başlıklar:

Ziraat Mühendisliği (Diğer)

Dergi:

Ege Üniversitesi Ziraat Fakültesi Dergisi Vol.61 Issue 2, pp.249-258

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

1/2024

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001322035

pISSN:

1018-8851