An Analysis Of The Macroeconomic Dynamics Determining Manufacturing Industry Inflation In Turkey Using The Wals Method

Alper Demirkol; Gamze Yılmaz

Makale detayları

An Analysis Of The Macroeconomic Dynamics Determining Manufacturing Industry Inflation In Turkey Using The Wals Method

Yazarlar:

Alper Demirkol | Gamze Yılmaz

Yayıncı:

Aydin Adnan Menderes University

Ana Başlıklar:

Zaman Serileri Analizi

Dergi:

Adnan Menderes Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi Vol.12 Issue 1, pp.44-63

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

6/2025

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001351044

pISSN:

2148-4996

Anahtar kelimeler:

Özet:

 structure and development process. During the economic development process, high value-added production in the manufacturing sector plays a critical role in providing countries with a competitive advantage. Turkeys manufacturing industry, influenced by global industrialization processes, faces structural challenges, including limited technological advancement and high import dependency. In this context, the manufacturing producer price index serves as a critical indicator for analyzing the sectors resilience to market fluctuations and facilitates the understanding of interactions between sectoral sustainability and economic stability. This study examines the macroeconomic dynamics that influence inflation in Turkeys manufacturing industry by employing macroeconomic variables, including the domestic manufacturing price index, industrial production index, fixed capital investment expenditures, manufacturing capacity utilization rate, real effective exchange rate, crude oil barrel prices, energy prices CPI-energy price change, Turkeys 2-year benchmark interest rate TR interest rate, and the U.S. federal funds rate FED interest rate, utilizing the Ordinary Least Squares OLS and Weighted Average Least Squares WALS methods. The analysis results indicate that a one-unit increase in the industrial production index, fixed capital investment expenditures, the FED interest rate, and crude oil barrel prices exerts a positive and statistically significant impact on inflation in Turkeys manufacturing industry. In contrast, a one-unit increase in the real effective exchange rate, manufacturing capacity utilization rate, and TR interest rate exerts a negative and statistically significant effect on Turkeys manufacturing industry inflation. Furthermore, in the macroeconomic production model, the TR interest rate is treated as a fixed parameter, and the analysis reveals that a one-unit increase in the TR interest rate exerts a positive and statistically significant impact on Turkeys manufacturing industry inflation. However, in the model that includes the FED interest rate, the sign of the TR interest rate appears negative. This indicates that changes in the FED interest rates indirectly influence the TR interest rates.

 structure and development process. During the economic development process, high value-added production in the manufacturing sector plays a critical role in providing countries with a competitive advantage. Turkeys manufacturing industry, influenced by global industrialization processes, faces structural challenges, including limited technological advancement and high import dependency. In this context, the manufacturing producer price index serves as a critical indicator for analyzing the sectors resilience to market fluctuations and facilitates the understanding of interactions between sectoral sustainability and economic stability. This study examines the macroeconomic dynamics that influence inflation in Turkeys manufacturing industry by employing macroeconomic variables, including the domestic manufacturing price index, industrial production index, fixed capital investment expenditures, manufacturing capacity utilization rate, real effective exchange rate, crude oil barrel prices, energy prices CPI-energy price change, Turkeys 2-year benchmark interest rate TR interest rate, and the U.S. federal funds rate FED interest rate, utilizing the Ordinary Least Squares OLS and Weighted Average Least Squares WALS methods. The analysis results indicate that a one-unit increase in the industrial production index, fixed capital investment expenditures, the FED interest rate, and crude oil barrel prices exerts a positive and statistically significant impact on inflation in Turkeys manufacturing industry. In contrast, a one-unit increase in the real effective exchange rate, manufacturing capacity utilization rate, and TR interest rate exerts a negative and statistically significant effect on Turkeys manufacturing industry inflation. Furthermore, in the macroeconomic production model, the TR interest rate is treated as a fixed parameter, and the analysis reveals that a one-unit increase in the TR interest rate exerts a positive and statistically significant impact on Turkeys manufacturing industry inflation. However, in the model that includes the FED interest rate, the sign of the TR interest rate appears negative. This indicates that changes in the FED interest rates indirectly influence the TR interest rates.

 structure and development process. During the economic development process, high value-added production in the manufacturing sector plays a critical role in providing countries with a competitive advantage. Turkeys manufacturing industry, influenced by global industrialization processes, faces structural challenges, including limited technological advancement and high import dependency. In this context, the manufacturing producer price index serves as a critical indicator for analyzing the sectors resilience to market fluctuations and facilitates the understanding of interactions between sectoral sustainability and economic stability. This study examines the macroeconomic dynamics that influence inflation in Turkeys manufacturing industry by employing macroeconomic variables, including the domestic manufacturing price index, industrial production index, fixed capital investment expenditures, manufacturing capacity utilization rate, real effective exchange rate, crude oil barrel prices, energy prices CPI-energy price change, Turkeys 2-year benchmark interest rate TR interest rate, and the U.S. federal funds rate FED interest rate, utilizing the Ordinary Least Squares OLS and Weighted Average Least Squares WALS methods. The analysis results indicate that a one-unit increase in the industrial production index, fixed capital investment expenditures, the FED interest rate, and crude oil barrel prices exerts a positive and statistically significant impact on inflation in Turkeys manufacturing industry. In contrast, a one-unit increase in the real effective exchange rate, manufacturing capacity utilization rate, and TR interest rate exerts a negative and statistically significant effect on Turkeys manufacturing industry inflation. Furthermore, in the macroeconomic production model, the TR interest rate is treated as a fixed parameter, and the analysis reveals that a one-unit increase in the TR interest rate exerts a positive and statistically significant impact on Turkeys manufacturing industry inflation. However, in the model that includes the FED interest rate, the sign of the TR interest rate appears negative. This indicates that changes in the FED interest rates indirectly influence the TR interest rates.

 İmalat sanayisi, bir ülkenin ekonomik yapısının ve kalkınma sürecinin ana bileşenlerinden biri olarak önemli bir konumda bulunmaktadır. Ekonomik gelişim sürecinde yüksek katma değerli üretim, ülkelere rekabet avantajı sağlama açısından kritik bir rol oynamaktadır. Türkiyenin imalat sanayisi, küresel sanayileşme süreçlerinden etkilenirken, düşük teknoloji kullanımı ve ithalata bağımlılık gibi yapısal sorunlarla karşılaşmaktadır. Bu bağlamda, imalat sanayi üretici fiyat endeksi, piyasalardaki dalgalanmalara karşı sektörün dayanıklılığını analiz etmek için kritik bir gösterge niteliği taşımakta ve sektörün sürdürülebilirliği ile ekonomik istikrar arasındaki etkileşimleri anlamamıza yardımcı olmaktadır. Bu çalışma, Türkiye de imalat sanayi enflasyonunu belirleyen makroekonomik dinamikleri; imalat sanayi yurt içi fiyat endeksi, sanayi üretim endeksi, sabit sermaye yatırım harcamaları, imalat sanayi kapasite kullanım oranı, reel efektif döviz kuru, ham petrol varil fiyatları, enerji fiyatları TUFE-Enerji fiyatlarındaki değişim, Türkiye 2 yıllık gösterge Faiz oranı TR Faiz oranı ve ABD federal fon oranı FED faiz oranı gibi makroekonomik değişkenler kullanarak En küçük kareler EKK ve Ağırlıklı ortalama en küçük kareler WALS yöntemleriyle incelemektedir. Analiz sonuçları, sanayi üretim endeksi, sabit sermaye yatırım harcamaları, FED faiz oranı ve ham petrol varil fiyatlarında meydana gelen bir birimlik artışların Türkiye imalat sanayi enflasyonu üzerinde pozitif ve istatistiksel olarak anlamlı etkileri olduğunu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Buna karşın, reel efektif döviz kuru, imalat sanayi kapasite kullanım oranı ve TR faiz oranında meydana gelen bir birimlik artışların ise Türkiye imalat sanayi enflasyonu üzerinde negatif ve istatistiksel olarak anlamlı etkileri olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Ayrıca, makro üretim modelinde TR faiz oranı sabit bir parametre olarak kabul edilmiş ve yapılan analiz sonucunda, TR faiz oranındaki bir birimlik artışın Türkiye imalat sanayi enflasyonu üzerinde pozitif ve anlamlı bir etkisi olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Ancak, FED faiz oranının dahil olduğu modelde, TR faiz oranının işareti negatif çıkmaktadır. Bu durum, FED faiz oranlarındaki değişimlerin, TR faiz oranları üzerinde dolaylı bir baskı oluşturduğunu göstermektedir.

Makale detayları

An Analysis Of The Macroeconomic Dynamics Determining Manufacturing Industry Inflation In Turkey Using The Wals Method

Yazarlar:

Alper Demirkol | Gamze Yılmaz

Yayıncı:

Aydin Adnan Menderes University

Ana Başlıklar:

Zaman Serileri Analizi

Dergi:

Adnan Menderes Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi Vol.12 Issue 1, pp.44-63

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

6/2025

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001351044

pISSN:

2148-4996

Manufacturing Industry Inflation

Price Stability

Weighted Average Least Squares Methodİmalat Sanayi Enflasyonu

Fiyat İstikrarı

Ağırlıklı Ortalama En Küçük Kareler Yöntemi

Sayı

Makale detayları

An Analysis Of The Macroeconomic Dynamics Determining Manufacturing Industry Inflation In Turkey Using The Wals Method

Yazarlar: Alper Demirkol | Gamze Yılmaz

Yayıncı: Aydin Adnan Menderes University

Ana Başlıklar: Zaman Serileri Analizi

Dergi: Adnan Menderes Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi Vol.12 Issue 1, pp.44-63

Belge Tipi: Makale

Yayın Tarihi: 6/2025

Belge Dili: Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.): 2001351044

pISSN: 2148-4996

Manufacturing Industry Inflation

Price Stability

Weighted Average Least Squares Methodİmalat Sanayi Enflasyonu

Fiyat İstikrarı

Ağırlıklı Ortalama En Küçük Kareler Yöntemi

Sayı

Yazarlar:

Alper Demirkol | Gamze Yılmaz

Yayıncı:

Aydin Adnan Menderes University

Ana Başlıklar:

Zaman Serileri Analizi

Dergi:

Adnan Menderes Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi Vol.12 Issue 1, pp.44-63

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

6/2025

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001351044

pISSN:

2148-4996