Investigation of the Effect of Climate Change on Extreme Precipitation: Capital Ankara Case

Sertac ORUC; İsmail YÜCEL; Ayşen YILMAZ

doi:https://doi.org/10.18400/tekderg.714980

Makale detayları

Investigation of the Effect of Climate Change on Extreme Precipitation: Capital Ankara Case

Yazarlar:

Sertac ORUC | İsmail YÜCEL | Ayşen YILMAZ

Yayıncı:

TMMOB İnşaat Mühendisleri Odası

Ana Başlıklar:

İnşaat mühendisliği

Dergi:

Teknik Dergi 2022 Vol.33 Issue 2, pp.11749-11778

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

2/2022

Belge Dili:

İngilizce

Document ID (Org No.):

2000648262

Sıklık:

İki Aylık

pISSN:

1300-3453

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.18400/tekderg.714980

Özet:

 

This study examines the potential impacts of climate change on extreme precipitation. Rainfall analysis with stationary and nonstationary approach for observed and future conditions is performed for (1950-2015 period) observed data of 5, 10, 15, 30 minutes and 1, 2, 3, 6 hour and projections (2015-2098 period) of 10, 15 minutes and 1, 6 hour for Ankara province, Turkey. Daily projections are disaggregated to finer scales, 5 minutes storm durations, then five minutes time series aggregated to the storm durations that are subject of interest. Nonstationary Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) models and stationary GEV models for observed and future data are obtained. Nonstationary model results are in general exhibited smaller return level values with respect to stationary model results of each storm duration for observed data driven model results. Considering the projected data driven model results; on average nonstationary models produce mostly lower return levels for mid and longer return periods for all storm durations and return periods except one hour storm duration. Depending on the models and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP), there are different results for the future extreme rainfall input; yet all results indicate a decreasing extreme trend.

 

This study examines the potential impacts of climate change on extreme precipitation. Rainfall analysis with stationary and nonstationary approach for observed and future conditions is performed for (1950-2015 period) observed data of 5, 10, 15, 30 minutes and 1, 2, 3, 6 hour and projections (2015-2098 period) of 10, 15 minutes and 1, 6 hour for Ankara province, Turkey. Daily projections are disaggregated to finer scales, 5 minutes storm durations, then five minutes time series aggregated to the storm durations that are subject of interest. Nonstationary Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) models and stationary GEV models for observed and future data are obtained. Nonstationary model results are in general exhibited smaller return level values with respect to stationary model results of each storm duration for observed data driven model results. Considering the projected data driven model results; on average nonstationary models produce mostly lower return levels for mid and longer return periods for all storm durations and return periods except one hour storm duration. Depending on the models and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP), there are different results for the future extreme rainfall input; yet all results indicate a decreasing extreme trend.

Makale detayları

Investigation of the Effect of Climate Change on Extreme Precipitation: Capital Ankara Case

Yazarlar: Sertac ORUC | İsmail YÜCEL | Ayşen YILMAZ

Yayıncı: TMMOB İnşaat Mühendisleri Odası

Ana Başlıklar: İnşaat mühendisliği

Dergi: Teknik Dergi 2022 Vol.33 Issue 2, pp.11749-11778

Belge Tipi: Makale

Yayın Tarihi: 2/2022

Belge Dili: İngilizce

Document ID (Org No.): 2000648262

Sıklık: İki Aylık

pISSN: 1300-3453

DOI: https://doi.org/10.18400/tekderg.714980

Sayı

Yazarlar:

Sertac ORUC | İsmail YÜCEL | Ayşen YILMAZ

Yayıncı:

TMMOB İnşaat Mühendisleri Odası

Ana Başlıklar:

İnşaat mühendisliği

Dergi:

Teknik Dergi 2022 Vol.33 Issue 2, pp.11749-11778

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

2/2022

Belge Dili:

İngilizce

Document ID (Org No.):

2000648262

Sıklık:

İki Aylık

pISSN:

1300-3453

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.18400/tekderg.714980