The Nexus Between Defense Expenditures, Geopolitical Risk, Political Stability and Macroeconomic Indicators: Evidence from Türkiye

Elif Efe; Üzeyir Aydın

Makale detayları

The Nexus Between Defense Expenditures, Geopolitical Risk, Political Stability and Macroeconomic Indicators: Evidence from Türkiye

Yazarlar:

Elif Efe | Üzeyir Aydın

Yayıncı:

Kütahya Dumlupinar University

Ana Başlıklar:

Makro İktisat (Diğer)

Dergi:

Dumlupınar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi Issue 84, pp.283-301

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

4/2025

Belge Dili:

İngilizce

Document ID (Org No.):

2001346936

pISSN:

1302-1842

Anahtar kelimeler:

Özet:

 Defense expenditures are an item that exists cyclically throughout the world in every period and covers most of the public expenditures of countries. The effect of defense expenditures on inflation, employment, balance of trade balance, gross domestic product, geopolitical risk index, and political stability index within the scope of Türkiye has been examined. The findings, while the causality relationship from defense spending to balance of trade, geopolitical risk index, and political stability index is determined and there is a positive relationship from defense spending to foreign trade balance and a negative relationship to geopolitical risk index, there is a cointegration towards gross domestic product. Empirical findings support the military Keynesian approach in the long and short term, indicating that the increase in defense expenditures in Türkiye increases exports and the balance of trade. Increasing RD activities and implementing policies that encourage investment in higher-density defense industry products will increase positive externalities in the balance of trade. Long-term, the rise in defense spending allows one to draw the conclusion that the country tends to lower geopolitical risks by boosting confidence in its political, economic, and security realities and lowering the threat of terrorism.

 Defense expenditures are an item that exists cyclically throughout the world in every period and covers most of the public expenditures of countries. The effect of defense expenditures on inflation, employment, balance of trade balance, gross domestic product, geopolitical risk index, and political stability index within the scope of Türkiye has been examined. The findings, while the causality relationship from defense spending to balance of trade, geopolitical risk index, and political stability index is determined and there is a positive relationship from defense spending to foreign trade balance and a negative relationship to geopolitical risk index, there is a cointegration towards gross domestic product. Empirical findings support the military Keynesian approach in the long and short term, indicating that the increase in defense expenditures in Türkiye increases exports and the balance of trade. Increasing RD activities and implementing policies that encourage investment in higher-density defense industry products will increase positive externalities in the balance of trade. Long-term, the rise in defense spending allows one to draw the conclusion that the country tends to lower geopolitical risks by boosting confidence in its political, economic, and security realities and lowering the threat of terrorism.

 Defense expenditures are an item that exists cyclically throughout the world in every period and covers most of the public expenditures of countries. The effect of defense expenditures on inflation, employment, balance of trade balance, gross domestic product, geopolitical risk index, and political stability index within the scope of Türkiye has been examined. The findings, while the causality relationship from defense spending to balance of trade, geopolitical risk index, and political stability index is determined and there is a positive relationship from defense spending to foreign trade balance and a negative relationship to geopolitical risk index, there is a cointegration towards gross domestic product. Empirical findings support the military Keynesian approach in the long and short term, indicating that the increase in defense expenditures in Türkiye increases exports and the balance of trade. Increasing RD activities and implementing policies that encourage investment in higher-density defense industry products will increase positive externalities in the balance of trade. Long-term, the rise in defense spending allows one to draw the conclusion that the country tends to lower geopolitical risks by boosting confidence in its political, economic, and security realities and lowering the threat of terrorism.

 Savunma harcamaları dünya genelinde konjonktürel olarak her dönemde var olan ve ülkelerin kamu harcamalarının büyük bir kısmını oluşturmaktadır. Bu çalışmada Türkiye kapsamında savunma harcamalarının enflasyon, istihdam, dış ticaret dengesi, gayrisafi yurtiçi hasıla, jeopolitik risk endeksi ve siyasi istikrar endeksi üzerindeki etkisi incelenmiştir. Bulgular, savunma harcamalarından dış ticaret dengesine, jeopolitik risk ve politik istikrar endeksine doğru nedensellik ilişkisi, savunma harcamalarından dış ticaret dengesine doğru pozitif, jeopolitik risk endeksine doğru negatif bir ilişki, gayrisafi yurt içi hasılaya doğru ise eş bütünleşme olduğunu göstermektedir. Ampirik bulgular uzun ve kısa vadede Askeri Keynesyen yaklaşımı desteklemekte, Türkiyede savunma harcamalarındaki artışın ihracatı artırdığını ve dış ticaret dengesini iyileştirdiğini göstermektedir. Araştırma ve geliştirme faaliyetlerinin artırılması ve daha yüksek yoğunluklu savunma sanayi ürünlerine yatırımı teşvik eden politikaların uygulanması dış ticaret dengesindeki pozitif dışsallıkları artıracaktır. Uzun vadede savunma harcamalarındaki artış, ülkenin güvenlik, ekonomik ve siyasi gerçeklerine olan güveni artırarak ve terörizm riskini azaltarak jeopolitik riskleri azaltma eğiliminde olacağı sonucuna ulaşılmaktadır.

Makale detayları

The Nexus Between Defense Expenditures, Geopolitical Risk, Political Stability and Macroeconomic Indicators: Evidence from Türkiye

Yazarlar:

Elif Efe | Üzeyir Aydın

Yayıncı:

Kütahya Dumlupinar University

Ana Başlıklar:

Makro İktisat (Diğer)

Dergi:

Dumlupınar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi Issue 84, pp.283-301

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

4/2025

Belge Dili:

İngilizce

Document ID (Org No.):

2001346936

pISSN:

1302-1842

Geopolitical risk index

Defense expenditures

ARDL bounds testing approach

Political stability index

Toda-Yamamoto causality analysisJeopolitik risk endeksi

Savunma harcamaları

Politik istikrar endeksi

ARDL sınır testi

Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik analizi

Sayı

Makale detayları

Yazarlar: Elif Efe | Üzeyir Aydın

Yayıncı: Kütahya Dumlupinar University

Ana Başlıklar: Makro İktisat (Diğer)

Dergi: Dumlupınar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi Issue 84, pp.283-301

Belge Tipi: Makale

Yayın Tarihi: 4/2025

Belge Dili: İngilizce

Document ID (Org No.): 2001346936

pISSN: 1302-1842

Sayı

Yazarlar:

Elif Efe | Üzeyir Aydın

Yayıncı:

Kütahya Dumlupinar University

Ana Başlıklar:

Makro İktisat (Diğer)

Dergi:

Dumlupınar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi Issue 84, pp.283-301

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

4/2025

Belge Dili:

İngilizce

Document ID (Org No.):

2001346936

pISSN:

1302-1842