The Effect of Real Exchange Rate, Inflation and Interest Rate on Foreign Trade in Turkey: Analysis with Symmetric and Asymmetric Methods

Hüseyin Uslu

Makale detayları

The Effect of Real Exchange Rate, Inflation and Interest Rate on Foreign Trade in Turkey: Analysis with Symmetric and Asymmetric Methods

Yazarlar:

Hüseyin Uslu

Yayıncı:

Kyrgyz-Turkish Manas University

Dergi:

MANAS Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi Vol.12 Issue 2, pp.524-556

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

4/2023

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001288447

pISSN:

1694-7215

Anahtar kelimeler:

Özet:

 The aim of this study is to examine the effects of real exchange rate, inflation and interest rates on foreign trade in Turkey, using the annual data for the period 1970-2021, theoretically and practically, with symmetrical and asymmetrical time series analysis methods. The time series analysis method was used in the research, and the stationarity of the series; It was examined by Zivot and Andrews 1992 and Lee and Strazicich 2003, 2004 tests that allow for structural break. Cointegration relations between series; It has been tested with symmetrical cointegration methods Hatemi-J 2008 and asymmetric cointegration methods by Granger and Yoon 2002 and Hatemi-J and Irandoust 2012. Causality relationships between series; Hacker and Hatemi-J 2006 tested for symmetric causality and Hatemi-J 2012 asymmetric causality tests. In cointegration analysis; In Hatemi-J 2008 structural break cointegration test, it was concluded that only the series in the trade balance model have a cointegration relationship. Granger and Yoon 2002 asymmetric cointegration test does not find hidden cointegration in any model, Hatemi-J and Irandoust 2012 asymmetric cointegration test; He could not find cointegration between the negative components of the series in the export model, but showed that there are hidden cointegration relationships between the positive components of the series in the export model and between both components of the series in the import model and the trade balance model. As a result of the analyzes made; In Hacker and Hatemi-J 2006 symmetric causality test, one-way causality relations from exports to inflation and average real national income per capita in the world and from interest to imports were found. In Hatemi-J 2012 asymmetric causality test; It has been revealed that there are asymmetric causality relations from exports to interest, from imports to inflation and the average real national income per capita in the world. Symmetrical and asymmetrical analyzes made; It has been revealed that Turkeys foreign trade deficit problem has complex relations that cannot be solved by raising the nominal exchange rate alone.

 The aim of this study is to examine the effects of real exchange rate, inflation and interest rates on foreign trade in Turkey, using the annual data for the period 1970-2021, theoretically and practically, with symmetrical and asymmetrical time series analysis methods. The time series analysis method was used in the research, and the stationarity of the series; It was examined by Zivot and Andrews 1992 and Lee and Strazicich 2003, 2004 tests that allow for structural break. Cointegration relations between series; It has been tested with symmetrical cointegration methods Hatemi-J 2008 and asymmetric cointegration methods by Granger and Yoon 2002 and Hatemi-J and Irandoust 2012. Causality relationships between series; Hacker and Hatemi-J 2006 tested for symmetric causality and Hatemi-J 2012 asymmetric causality tests. In cointegration analysis; In Hatemi-J 2008 structural break cointegration test, it was concluded that only the series in the trade balance model have a cointegration relationship. Granger and Yoon 2002 asymmetric cointegration test does not find hidden cointegration in any model, Hatemi-J and Irandoust 2012 asymmetric cointegration test; He could not find cointegration between the negative components of the series in the export model, but showed that there are hidden cointegration relationships between the positive components of the series in the export model and between both components of the series in the import model and the trade balance model. As a result of the analyzes made; In Hacker and Hatemi-J 2006 symmetric causality test, one-way causality relations from exports to inflation and average real national income per capita in the world and from interest to imports were found. In Hatemi-J 2012 asymmetric causality test; It has been revealed that there are asymmetric causality relations from exports to interest, from imports to inflation and the average real national income per capita in the world. Symmetrical and asymmetrical analyzes made; It has been revealed that Turkeys foreign trade deficit problem has complex relations that cannot be solved by raising the nominal exchange rate alone.

 The aim of this study is to examine the effects of real exchange rate, inflation and interest rates on foreign trade in Turkey, using the annual data for the period 1970-2021, theoretically and practically, with symmetrical and asymmetrical time series analysis methods. The time series analysis method was used in the research, and the stationarity of the series; It was examined by Zivot and Andrews 1992 and Lee and Strazicich 2003, 2004 tests that allow for structural break. Cointegration relations between series; It has been tested with symmetrical cointegration methods Hatemi-J 2008 and asymmetric cointegration methods by Granger and Yoon 2002 and Hatemi-J and Irandoust 2012. Causality relationships between series; Hacker and Hatemi-J 2006 tested for symmetric causality and Hatemi-J 2012 asymmetric causality tests. In cointegration analysis; In Hatemi-J 2008 structural break cointegration test, it was concluded that only the series in the trade balance model have a cointegration relationship. Granger and Yoon 2002 asymmetric cointegration test does not find hidden cointegration in any model, Hatemi-J and Irandoust 2012 asymmetric cointegration test; He could not find cointegration between the negative components of the series in the export model, but showed that there are hidden cointegration relationships between the positive components of the series in the export model and between both components of the series in the import model and the trade balance model. As a result of the analyzes made; In Hacker and Hatemi-J 2006 symmetric causality test, one-way causality relations from exports to inflation and average real national income per capita in the world and from interest to imports were found. In Hatemi-J 2012 asymmetric causality test; It has been revealed that there are asymmetric causality relations from exports to interest, from imports to inflation and the average real national income per capita in the world. Symmetrical and asymmetrical analyzes made; It has been revealed that Turkeys foreign trade deficit problem has complex relations that cannot be solved by raising the nominal exchange rate alone.

 Bu çalışmanın temel amacı; Türkiyede reel döviz kuru, enflasyon ve faiz oranlarının dış ticaret üzerindeki etkilerini 1970-2021 dönemi yıllık verilerini kullanarak teorik ve uygulamalı olarak simetrik ve asimetrik zaman serileri analiz yöntemleriyle incelemektir. Araştırmada zaman serileri analiz yöntemi kullanılmış olup, serilerin durağanlıkları; yapısal kırılmaya izin veren Zivot ve Andrews 1992 ve Lee ve Strazicich 2003, 2004 testleriyle incelenmiştir. Seriler arasındaki eşbütünleşme ilişkileri; Hatemi-J 2008 simetrik, Granger ve Yoon 2002 ve Hatemi-J ve Irandoust 2012 asimetrik eşbütünleşme yöntemleriyle sınanmıştır. Seriler arasındaki nedensellik ilişkileri; Hacker ve Hatemi-J 2006 simetrik nedensellik, Hatemi-J 2012 asimetrik nedensellik testleriyle araştırılmıştır. Eşbütünleşme analizlerinde; Hatemi-J 2008 yapısal kırılmalı eşbütünleşme testinde sadece ticaret dengesi modelinde yer alan serilerin eşbütünleşme ilişkisine sahip oldukları sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Granger ve Yoon 2002 asimetrik eşbütünleşme testi, hiçbir modelde saklı eşbütünleşme bulamazken, Hatemi-J ve Irandoust 2012 asimetrik eşbütünleşme testi; ihracat modelinde yer alan serilerin negatif bileşenleri arasında eşbütünleşme bulamamış ama ihracat modelindeki serilerin pozitif bileşenleri arasında, ithalat modeli ve ticaret dengesi modelindeki serilerin her iki bileşeni arasında da saklı eşbütünleşme ilişkilerinin var olduğunu göstermiştir. Yapılan analizler sonucunda; Hacker ve Hatemi-J 2006 simetrik nedensellik testinde, ihracattan enflasyon ve dünyadaki kişi başına düşen ortalama reel milli gelire ve faizden ithalata tek yönlü nedensellik ilişkileri bulunmuştur. Hatemi-J 2012 asimetrik nedensellik testindeyse; ihracattan faize, ithalattan enflasyon ve dünyadaki kişi başına düşen ortalama reel milli gelire doğru asimetrik nedensellik ilişkileri olduğu ortaya çıkarılmıştır. Yapılan simetrik ve asimetrik analizler; Türkiyenin dış ticaret açığı sorununun, sadece nominal kurun yükseltilmesiyle çözülemeyecek kadar kompleks ilişkiler barındırdığını ortaya koymuştur.

Makale detayları

The Effect of Real Exchange Rate, Inflation and Interest Rate on Foreign Trade in Turkey: Analysis with Symmetric and Asymmetric Methods

Yazarlar:

Hüseyin Uslu

Yayıncı:

Kyrgyz-Turkish Manas University

Dergi:

MANAS Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi Vol.12 Issue 2, pp.524-556

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

4/2023

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001288447

pISSN:

1694-7215

Real Exchange Rate

Inflation

Interest Rate

Symmetric and Asymmetric Causality Tests.Reel Döviz Kuru

Enflasyon

Faiz Oranı

Simetrik ve Asimetrik Nedensellik Testi.

Sayı

Makale detayları

Yazarlar: Hüseyin Uslu

Yayıncı: Kyrgyz-Turkish Manas University

Dergi: MANAS Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi Vol.12 Issue 2, pp.524-556

Belge Tipi: Makale

Yayın Tarihi: 4/2023

Belge Dili: Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.): 2001288447

pISSN: 1694-7215

Sayı

Yazarlar:

Hüseyin Uslu

Yayıncı:

Kyrgyz-Turkish Manas University

Dergi:

MANAS Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi Vol.12 Issue 2, pp.524-556

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

4/2023

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001288447

pISSN:

1694-7215