Modelling the Errors of EIA’s Oil Prices and Production Forecastsby the Grey Markov Model

Gholam Hossein Hasantash; Hamidreza Mostafaei; Shaghayegh Kordnoori

Makale detayları

Modelling the Errors of EIA’s Oil Prices and Production Forecastsby the Grey Markov Model

Yazarlar:

Gholam Hossein Hasantash | Hamidreza Mostafaei | Shaghayegh Kordnoori

Yayıncı:

İlhan ÖZTÜRK

Dergi:

International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues 2012 Vol.2 Issue 3, pp.312-319

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

8/2012

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2000814860

Sıklık:

İki Aylık

eISSN:

2146-4138

Özet:

 

Grey theory is about systematic analysis of limited information. The Grey-Markov model can improve the accuracy of forecast range in the random fluctuating data sequence. In this paper, we employed this model in energy system. The average errors of Energy Information Administrations predictions for world oil price and domestic crude oil production from 1982 to 2007 and from 1985 to 2008 respectively were used as two forecasted examples. We showed that the proposed Grey-Markov model can improve the forecast accuracy of original Grey forecast model.

Makale detayları

Modelling the Errors of EIA’s Oil Prices and Production Forecastsby the Grey Markov Model

Yazarlar: Gholam Hossein Hasantash | Hamidreza Mostafaei | Shaghayegh Kordnoori

Yayıncı: İlhan ÖZTÜRK

Dergi: International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues 2012 Vol.2 Issue 3, pp.312-319

Belge Tipi: Makale

Yayın Tarihi: 8/2012

Belge Dili: Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.): 2000814860

Sıklık: İki Aylık

eISSN: 2146-4138

Sayı

Yazarlar:

Gholam Hossein Hasantash | Hamidreza Mostafaei | Shaghayegh Kordnoori

Yayıncı:

İlhan ÖZTÜRK

Dergi:

International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues 2012 Vol.2 Issue 3, pp.312-319

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

8/2012

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2000814860

Sıklık:

İki Aylık

eISSN:

2146-4138