Convergence of Military Expenditures in MENA Countries: Evidences from a Fourier Panel Unit Root Test with Multiple Breaks

İbrahim Sezer Belliler

Makale detayları

Convergence of Military Expenditures in MENA Countries: Evidences from a Fourier Panel Unit Root Test with Multiple Breaks

Yazarlar:

İbrahim Sezer Belliler

Yayıncı:

Istanbul University

Ana Başlıklar:

Ekonometri (Diğer)

Dergi:

EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics Issue 39, pp.183-199

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

12/2023

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001311535

pISSN:

2651-396X

Anahtar kelimeler:

Özet:

 Nowadays, even regional conflicts can lead to political and military crises on a global scale, and military expenditures have become more important in countries budgets. Countries that shape their military spending according to the political and military organizations of which they are a part are expected along with their neighbors to exhibit convergent behavior in this regard. This study examines the military expenditures of 12 Middle East and North Africa MENA countries i.e., Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Morocco, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, and Turkey from 1977-2021. The null hypothesis stating no cross-sectional dependence to exist has been rejected by all of the Breusch-Pagan 1980, the scaled Lagrange multiplier LM Pesaran and Pesarans cross-sectional dependency CD; 2004, and also LM 2012 tests. In this context, using unit root tests that take into account cross-sectional dependence would be more accurate. Bahmani-Oskooee et al.s 2014 Fourier panel unit root test with multiple breaks, which takes into account cross-sectional dependency and heterogeneity between units, was used to perform the convergence analysis of military burdens. According to the research findings, the alternative hypothesis that some MENA countries did not imply convergent behavior could not be rejected. The military expenditures of Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey were found to converge with the MENA mean and the military expendituresof the United States and Israel. Due to being a NATO member, Turkeys behavior is expected to converge with the United States. Turkey and Saudi Arabias motivation for enhancing their weight in the region also explains their convergence with the US and Israel. Events such as the Gulf War and the Arab Spring that took place in the region stand out with regard to sudden break dates. The findings were determined to be statistically significant in accordance with the F test performed on the Fourier terms added for each country. In conclusion, the findings are significant for understanding how the military expenditures of MENA countries are formed.

 Nowadays, even regional conflicts can lead to political and military crises on a global scale, and military expenditures have become more important in countries budgets. Countries that shape their military spending according to the political and military organizations of which they are a part are expected along with their neighbors to exhibit convergent behavior in this regard. This study examines the military expenditures of 12 Middle East and North Africa MENA countries i.e., Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Morocco, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, and Turkey from 1977-2021. The null hypothesis stating no cross-sectional dependence to exist has been rejected by all of the Breusch-Pagan 1980, the scaled Lagrange multiplier LM Pesaran and Pesarans cross-sectional dependency CD; 2004, and also LM 2012 tests. In this context, using unit root tests that take into account cross-sectional dependence would be more accurate. Bahmani-Oskooee et al.s 2014 Fourier panel unit root test with multiple breaks, which takes into account cross-sectional dependency and heterogeneity between units, was used to perform the convergence analysis of military burdens. According to the research findings, the alternative hypothesis that some MENA countries did not imply convergent behavior could not be rejected. The military expenditures of Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey were found to converge with the MENA mean and the military expendituresof the United States and Israel. Due to being a NATO member, Turkeys behavior is expected to converge with the United States. Turkey and Saudi Arabias motivation for enhancing their weight in the region also explains their convergence with the US and Israel. Events such as the Gulf War and the Arab Spring that took place in the region stand out with regard to sudden break dates. The findings were determined to be statistically significant in accordance with the F test performed on the Fourier terms added for each country. In conclusion, the findings are significant for understanding how the military expenditures of MENA countries are formed.

 Nowadays, even regional conflicts can lead to political and military crises on a global scale, and military expenditures have become more important in countries budgets. Countries that shape their military spending according to the political and military organizations of which they are a part are expected along with their neighbors to exhibit convergent behavior in this regard. This study examines the military expenditures of 12 Middle East and North Africa MENA countries i.e., Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Morocco, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, and Turkey from 1977-2021. The null hypothesis stating no cross-sectional dependence to exist has been rejected by all of the Breusch-Pagan 1980, the scaled Lagrange multiplier LM Pesaran and Pesarans cross-sectional dependency CD; 2004, and also LM 2012 tests. In this context, using unit root tests that take into account cross-sectional dependence would be more accurate. Bahmani-Oskooee et al.s 2014 Fourier panel unit root test with multiple breaks, which takes into account cross-sectional dependency and heterogeneity between units, was used to perform the convergence analysis of military burdens. According to the research findings, the alternative hypothesis that some MENA countries did not imply convergent behavior could not be rejected. The military expenditures of Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey were found to converge with the MENA mean and the military expendituresof the United States and Israel. Due to being a NATO member, Turkeys behavior is expected to converge with the United States. Turkey and Saudi Arabias motivation for enhancing their weight in the region also explains their convergence with the US and Israel. Events such as the Gulf War and the Arab Spring that took place in the region stand out with regard to sudden break dates. The findings were determined to be statistically significant in accordance with the F test performed on the Fourier terms added for each country. In conclusion, the findings are significant for understanding how the military expenditures of MENA countries are formed.

 Bölgesel çatışmaların bile küresel ölçekte siyasi ve askeri krizlere yol açtığı günümüzde, ülkelerin savunma harcamaları bütçe içindeki önemini giderek arttırmaktadır. Dahil oldukları politik, askeri örgütlere veya komşularına göre savunma harcamalarını şekillendiren ülkelerin bu noktada yakınsama davranışı göstermesi beklenmektedir. Bu çalışma 1977-2021 yılları arasında 12 ODKA ülkesinin Cezayir, Bahreyn, Mısır, İran, İsrail, Ürdün, Kuveyt, Fas, Umman, Suudi Arabistan, Tunus, Türkiye savunma harcama yüklerini ele almaktadır. Breusch-Pagan 1980, Pesaran 2004 Scaled LM, Pesaran CD 2004, Baltagi, Feng ve Kao 2012 testlerinin tamamı yatay kesit bağımlılığın olmadığını ifade eden temel hipotezi reddetmiştir. Yatay kesit bağımlılığını dikkate alan birim kök testlerinin kullanılması bu bağlamda daha doğru olacaktır. Savunma harcama yüklerinin yakınsama analizinin gerçekleştirilebilmesi için Yatay Kesit Bağımlılığı ve birimler arası heterojenliği dikkate alan Bahmani-Oskooee2014nin Çok Kırılmalı Fourier Panel Birim kök testi kullanılmıştır. Araştırma bulgularına göre bazı ODKA ülkelerin yakınsama davranışı göstermediği alternatif hipotez reddedilememiştir. Bahreyn, Ürdün, Kuveyt, Suudi Arabistan ve Türkiye ODKA ortalamasına yakınsama davranışı göstermiştir. Amerika ve İsrailin savunma harcama ortalamasına yakınsama gösteren ülkeler ise Bahreyn, Ürdün, Kuveyt, Suudi Arabistan ve Türkiye olarak bulunmuştur. Türkiyenin NATO üyesi olması sebebiyle ABDye yakınsama davranışı göstermesi beklentilere uygunluk göstermektedir. Türkiye ve Suudi Arabistanın bölge içindeki ağırlığını arttırmak istemesi de ABD ve İsraile yakınsamasını açıklamaktadır. Bölgede gerçekleşen Körfez savaşı ve Arap Baharı gibi olaylar ani kırılma tarihlerinde tespit edilmiştir. Herbir ülke için eklenen fourier terimlerine uygulanan F testine göre sonuçlar istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bulunmuştur. Sonuç olarak elde edilen bulguların bölge içinde bulunan ülkelerin savunma harcama yüklerinin nasıl şekillendirdiklerinin açıklanabilmesi açısından önem arz etmektedir.

Makale detayları

Convergence of Military Expenditures in MENA Countries: Evidences from a Fourier Panel Unit Root Test with Multiple Breaks

Yazarlar:

İbrahim Sezer Belliler

Yayıncı:

Istanbul University

Ana Başlıklar:

Ekonometri (Diğer)

Dergi:

EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics Issue 39, pp.183-199

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

12/2023

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001311535

pISSN:

2651-396X

Military expenditures

convergence hypothesis

Fourier panel unit rootAskeri Harcamalar

Yakınsama Hipotezi

Fourier Panel Birim Kök Testi

Sayı

Makale detayları

Convergence of Military Expenditures in MENA Countries: Evidences from a Fourier Panel Unit Root Test with Multiple Breaks

Yazarlar: İbrahim Sezer Belliler

Yayıncı: Istanbul University

Ana Başlıklar: Ekonometri (Diğer)

Dergi: EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics Issue 39, pp.183-199

Belge Tipi: Makale

Yayın Tarihi: 12/2023

Belge Dili: Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.): 2001311535

pISSN: 2651-396X

Military expenditures

convergence hypothesis

Fourier panel unit rootAskeri Harcamalar

Yakınsama Hipotezi

Fourier Panel Birim Kök Testi

Sayı

Yazarlar:

İbrahim Sezer Belliler

Yayıncı:

Istanbul University

Ana Başlıklar:

Ekonometri (Diğer)

Dergi:

EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics Issue 39, pp.183-199

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

12/2023

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001311535

pISSN:

2651-396X