The Effects of Calibration Parameters in Muskingum Models on Flood Prediction Accuracy

Olusegun Alabi; Abigail Olaoluwa; Samuel Sedara

Makale detayları

The Effects of Calibration Parameters in Muskingum Models on Flood Prediction Accuracy

Yazarlar:

Olusegun Alabi | Abigail Olaoluwa | Samuel Sedara

Yayıncı:

Akdeniz University

Ana Başlıklar:

Engineering

Dergi:

International Journal of Engineering and Applied Sciences Vol.15 Issue 1, pp.19-35

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

3/2023

Belge Dili:

İngilizce

Document ID (Org No.):

2001289323

pISSN:

1309-0267

Anahtar kelimeler:

Özet:

 Attenuation, time lag, outflow peak and storage are very essential factors required in flood risk prediction and flood pattern. However, the accurate prediction strongly depends on appropriate calibration of routine parameters of the model, such as weighting factor x and storage time constant K. The weighting factor being used to determine storage time constant has not been given consideration in the previous studies and this could have led to inaccurate prediction in the past. In this work, a set of data obtained from an ungauged Awara river in Ondo State, Nigeria were used to test the effects of a weighting factor, x at levels ranging from 0.1-0.5 at interval of 0.1. The Muskingum model was used to obtain the storage and weighted discharge storage. It was observed that the correlation coefficient R2 decreases with an increase in the weighting factor x. This implies that there is a strong relationship between storage and weighted discharge storage at 0.1-0.3 levels of x while, the relationship is fair at 0.4-0.5 levels. It is therefore appropriate to choose a value of x ranging between 0.1 and 0.3 for attenuation prediction, while values of x ranging between 0.4 and 0.5 would be appropriate for accurate prediction of both outflow peak and storage.

 Attenuation, time lag, outflow peak and storage are very essential factors required in flood risk prediction and flood pattern. However, the accurate prediction strongly depends on appropriate calibration of routine parameters of the model, such as weighting factor x and storage time constant K. The weighting factor being used to determine storage time constant has not been given consideration in the previous studies and this could have led to inaccurate prediction in the past. In this work, a set of data obtained from an ungauged Awara river in Ondo State, Nigeria were used to test the effects of a weighting factor, x at levels ranging from 0.1-0.5 at interval of 0.1. The Muskingum model was used to obtain the storage and weighted discharge storage. It was observed that the correlation coefficient R2 decreases with an increase in the weighting factor x. This implies that there is a strong relationship between storage and weighted discharge storage at 0.1-0.3 levels of x while, the relationship is fair at 0.4-0.5 levels. It is therefore appropriate to choose a value of x ranging between 0.1 and 0.3 for attenuation prediction, while values of x ranging between 0.4 and 0.5 would be appropriate for accurate prediction of both outflow peak and storage.

 Attenuation, time lag, outflow peak and storage are very essential factors required in flood risk prediction and flood pattern. However, the accurate prediction strongly depends on appropriate calibration of routine parameters of the model, such as weighting factor x and storage time constant K. The weighting factor being used to determine storage time constant has not been given consideration in the previous studies and this could have led to inaccurate prediction in the past. In this work, a set of data obtained from an ungauged Awara river in Ondo State, Nigeria were used to test the effects of a weighting factor, x at levels ranging from 0.1-0.5 at interval of 0.1. The Muskingum model was used to obtain the storage and weighted discharge storage. It was observed that the correlation coefficient R2 decreases with an increase in the weighting factor x. This implies that there is a strong relationship between storage and weighted discharge storage at 0.1-0.3 levels of x while, the relationship is fair at 0.4-0.5 levels. It is therefore appropriate to choose a value of x ranging between 0.1 and 0.3 for attenuation prediction, while values of x ranging between 0.4 and 0.5 would be appropriate for accurate prediction of both outflow peak and storage.

 Attenuation, time lag, outflow peak and storage are very essential factors required in flood risk prediction and flood pattern. However, the accurate prediction strongly depends on appropriate calibration of routine parameters of the model, such as weighting factor x and storage time constant K. The weighting factor being used to determine storage time constant has not been given consideration in the previous studies and this could have led to inaccurate prediction in the past. In this work, a set of data obtained from an ungauged Awara river in Ondo State, Nigeria were used to test the effects of a weighting factor, x at levels ranging from 0.1-0.5 at interval of 0.1. The Muskingum model was used to obtain the storage and weighted discharge storage. It was observed that the correlation coefficient R2 decreases with an increase in the weighting factor x. This implies that there is a strong relationship between storage and weighted discharge storage at 0.1-0.3 levels of x while, the relationship is fair at 0.4-0.5 levels. It is therefore appropriate to choose a value of x ranging between 0.1 and 0.3 for attenuation prediction, while values of x ranging between 0.4 and 0.5 would be appropriate for accurate prediction of both outflow peak and storage.

Makale detayları

The Effects of Calibration Parameters in Muskingum Models on Flood Prediction Accuracy

Yazarlar:

Olusegun Alabi | Abigail Olaoluwa | Samuel Sedara

Yayıncı:

Akdeniz University

Ana Başlıklar:

Engineering

Dergi:

International Journal of Engineering and Applied Sciences Vol.15 Issue 1, pp.19-35

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

3/2023

Belge Dili:

İngilizce

Document ID (Org No.):

2001289323

pISSN:

1309-0267

Muskingum model

Awara river

hydrograph

flood risk

Attenuation

outflow peak

Sayı

Makale detayları

The Effects of Calibration Parameters in Muskingum Models on Flood Prediction Accuracy

Yazarlar: Olusegun Alabi | Abigail Olaoluwa | Samuel Sedara

Yayıncı: Akdeniz University

Ana Başlıklar: Engineering

Dergi: International Journal of Engineering and Applied Sciences Vol.15 Issue 1, pp.19-35

Belge Tipi: Makale

Yayın Tarihi: 3/2023

Belge Dili: İngilizce

Document ID (Org No.): 2001289323

pISSN: 1309-0267

Muskingum model

Awara river

hydrograph

flood risk

Attenuation

outflow peak

Sayı

Yazarlar:

Olusegun Alabi | Abigail Olaoluwa | Samuel Sedara

Yayıncı:

Akdeniz University

Ana Başlıklar:

Engineering

Dergi:

International Journal of Engineering and Applied Sciences Vol.15 Issue 1, pp.19-35

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

3/2023

Belge Dili:

İngilizce

Document ID (Org No.):

2001289323

pISSN:

1309-0267