Modeling of Land Surface Temperature with ARIMA Method and Future Prediction in Antalya

Cemberk Külahci; Zafer Aslan

Makale detayları

Modeling of Land Surface Temperature with ARIMA Method and Future Prediction in Antalya

Yazarlar:

Cemberk Külahci | Zafer Aslan

Yayıncı:

Istanbul Aydin University

Ana Başlıklar:

Mühendislik

Dergi:

Anadolu Bil Meslek Yüksekokulu Dergisi Vol.18 Issue 67, pp.81-90

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

7/2023

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001296082

pISSN:

1306-3375

Anahtar kelimeler:

Özet:

 Climate change is one of the most important problems for humanity on Earth. Along with many problems caused by the natural disasters, destruction, depletion of resources, and increasing health problems due to climate reasons, economic and social effects are also observed. Climate change has different global and local effects and affects many important parameters, including surface temperatures. Therefore, understanding how important parameters such as surface temperature have changed over time is an important step in combating climate change. In this study, daily land surface temperatures belonging to Antalya province between 1985 and 2023 were obtained from NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and monthly averages were studied. In this study, predictions were made for the next 120 months using the ARIMA Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average method. The training error rate of the model created with ARIMA was calculated as MSE Mean Square Error and found to be 1.01. It is estimated that the predicted land surface temperature values will remain close to the monthly averages for the years 1985-2023 after the trained model is used for prediction.

 Climate change is one of the most important problems for humanity on Earth. Along with many problems caused by the natural disasters, destruction, depletion of resources, and increasing health problems due to climate reasons, economic and social effects are also observed. Climate change has different global and local effects and affects many important parameters, including surface temperatures. Therefore, understanding how important parameters such as surface temperature have changed over time is an important step in combating climate change. In this study, daily land surface temperatures belonging to Antalya province between 1985 and 2023 were obtained from NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and monthly averages were studied. In this study, predictions were made for the next 120 months using the ARIMA Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average method. The training error rate of the model created with ARIMA was calculated as MSE Mean Square Error and found to be 1.01. It is estimated that the predicted land surface temperature values will remain close to the monthly averages for the years 1985-2023 after the trained model is used for prediction.

 Climate change is one of the most important problems for humanity on Earth. Along with many problems caused by the natural disasters, destruction, depletion of resources, and increasing health problems due to climate reasons, economic and social effects are also observed. Climate change has different global and local effects and affects many important parameters, including surface temperatures. Therefore, understanding how important parameters such as surface temperature have changed over time is an important step in combating climate change. In this study, daily land surface temperatures belonging to Antalya province between 1985 and 2023 were obtained from NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and monthly averages were studied. In this study, predictions were made for the next 120 months using the ARIMA Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average method. The training error rate of the model created with ARIMA was calculated as MSE Mean Square Error and found to be 1.01. It is estimated that the predicted land surface temperature values will remain close to the monthly averages for the years 1985-2023 after the trained model is used for prediction.

 Dünya üzerinde iklim değişiklikleri, insanlık için en önemli sorunlar arasında yer almaktadır. Bu değişimlerin yol açtığı doğal afetler, yıkım, kaynakların tükenmesi ve iklimsel nedenlerle artan sağlık problemleri gibi pek çok sorunun yanı sıra, ekonomik ve sosyal etkiler de gözlemlenmektedir. İklim değişikliği, küresel ve yerel olarak farklı etkiler gösterir ve yüzey sıcaklıkları da dahil olmak üzere birçok önemli parametreyi etkiler. Bu nedenle, yüzey sıcaklığı gibi önemli parametrelerin zaman içinde nasıl değiştiğini anlamak, iklim değişikliği ile mücadelede önemli bir adımdır. Bu çalışmada 1985 ile 2023 yılları arasındaki Antalya ilimize ait günlük kara yüzey sıcaklıkları NOAANational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration üzerinden elde edilerek, aylık ortalama bazında çalışma yapılmıştır. ARIMAAutoregressive Integrated Moving Average yöntemiyle yapılan bu çalışmada önümüzdeki 120 aya ait tahminde bulunulmuştur. ARIMA ile oluşturulan model de eğitim hata oranı MSEMean Square Error ile 1.01 olarak hesaplanmıştır. Eğitilen model sonrası yapılan tahminde kara yüzey sıcaklık değerlerinin 1985 - 2023 yıllarına ait aylık ortalama değerlere yakın kalacağı tahmin edilmiştir.

Makale detayları

Modeling of Land Surface Temperature with ARIMA Method and Future Prediction in Antalya

Yazarlar:

Cemberk Külahci | Zafer Aslan

Yayıncı:

Istanbul Aydin University

Ana Başlıklar:

Mühendislik

Dergi:

Anadolu Bil Meslek Yüksekokulu Dergisi Vol.18 Issue 67, pp.81-90

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

7/2023

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001296082

pISSN:

1306-3375

Land Surface Temprature

Machine Learning

Modelling

ARIMAKara Yüzey Sıcaklığı

Makine Öğrenmesi

Modelleme

ARIMA

Sayı

Makale detayları

Yazarlar: Cemberk Külahci | Zafer Aslan

Yayıncı: Istanbul Aydin University

Ana Başlıklar: Mühendislik

Dergi: Anadolu Bil Meslek Yüksekokulu Dergisi Vol.18 Issue 67, pp.81-90

Belge Tipi: Makale

Yayın Tarihi: 7/2023

Belge Dili: Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.): 2001296082

pISSN: 1306-3375

Sayı

Yazarlar:

Cemberk Külahci | Zafer Aslan

Yayıncı:

Istanbul Aydin University

Ana Başlıklar:

Mühendislik

Dergi:

Anadolu Bil Meslek Yüksekokulu Dergisi Vol.18 Issue 67, pp.81-90

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

7/2023

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001296082

pISSN:

1306-3375