Global Innovation Index-Unemployment Relationship: Findings from Panel GMM Analysis

Gürçem Özaytürk

Makale detayları

Global Innovation Index-Unemployment Relationship: Findings from Panel GMM Analysis

Yazarlar:

Gürçem Özaytürk

Yayıncı:

Ahmet Arif EREN

Ana Başlıklar:

Makro İktisat (Diğer)

Dergi:

Politik Ekonomik Kuram Vol.7 Issue Özel Sayı, pp.108-120

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

10/2023

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001302888

pISSN:

2587-2567

Anahtar kelimeler:

Özet:

 The New World Order, which has been valid since the 1980s, includes many changes in the social, political and cultural structure, especially in the economic. The innovation process that emerged with technological developments, on the other hand, draws the boundaries of this New World Order with the opportunities created on a global scale and the threats it brings. Although different arguments have been put forward on whether the effects of innovation are creative or destructive, the fact that its effects are more unpredictable makes it difficult to reach a consensus on this issue. One of the best examples of this is its two-way effect on employment. As a matter of fact, there is a general opinion that product innovation will increase productivity and reduce unemployment by creating new business lines, while process innovation will increase unemployment due to the lack of skills, organization and adaptation to rapidly changing technology. In this study, in order to examine the threats as well as the opportunities created by innovation in global economies, the relationship between the Global Innovation Index GII and unemployment was tested using the Two-Stage Generalized Moments GMM Estimator. In the study, the data of the first 25 countries with the highest GII between the years 2009-2021 were used, and as a result, a negative and significant relationship was found between total unemployment and gross capital investments and GDP per capita, and a positive and significant relationship between GII and total unemployment. This result is a proof that the innovation process increases unemployment. Finally, according to the Granger panel causality test results, it was determined that there is a bidirectional causality relationship between GII and gross capital investments and total unemployment.

 The New World Order, which has been valid since the 1980s, includes many changes in the social, political and cultural structure, especially in the economic. The innovation process that emerged with technological developments, on the other hand, draws the boundaries of this New World Order with the opportunities created on a global scale and the threats it brings. Although different arguments have been put forward on whether the effects of innovation are creative or destructive, the fact that its effects are more unpredictable makes it difficult to reach a consensus on this issue. One of the best examples of this is its two-way effect on employment. As a matter of fact, there is a general opinion that product innovation will increase productivity and reduce unemployment by creating new business lines, while process innovation will increase unemployment due to the lack of skills, organization and adaptation to rapidly changing technology. In this study, in order to examine the threats as well as the opportunities created by innovation in global economies, the relationship between the Global Innovation Index GII and unemployment was tested using the Two-Stage Generalized Moments GMM Estimator. In the study, the data of the first 25 countries with the highest GII between the years 2009-2021 were used, and as a result, a negative and significant relationship was found between total unemployment and gross capital investments and GDP per capita, and a positive and significant relationship between GII and total unemployment. This result is a proof that the innovation process increases unemployment. Finally, according to the Granger panel causality test results, it was determined that there is a bidirectional causality relationship between GII and gross capital investments and total unemployment.

 The New World Order, which has been valid since the 1980s, includes many changes in the social, political and cultural structure, especially in the economic. The innovation process that emerged with technological developments, on the other hand, draws the boundaries of this New World Order with the opportunities created on a global scale and the threats it brings. Although different arguments have been put forward on whether the effects of innovation are creative or destructive, the fact that its effects are more unpredictable makes it difficult to reach a consensus on this issue. One of the best examples of this is its two-way effect on employment. As a matter of fact, there is a general opinion that product innovation will increase productivity and reduce unemployment by creating new business lines, while process innovation will increase unemployment due to the lack of skills, organization and adaptation to rapidly changing technology. In this study, in order to examine the threats as well as the opportunities created by innovation in global economies, the relationship between the Global Innovation Index GII and unemployment was tested using the Two-Stage Generalized Moments GMM Estimator. In the study, the data of the first 25 countries with the highest GII between the years 2009-2021 were used, and as a result, a negative and significant relationship was found between total unemployment and gross capital investments and GDP per capita, and a positive and significant relationship between GII and total unemployment. This result is a proof that the innovation process increases unemployment. Finally, according to the Granger panel causality test results, it was determined that there is a bidirectional causality relationship between GII and gross capital investments and total unemployment.

 1980li yıllardan itibaren geçerli olan Yeni Dünya Düzeni, başta ekonomik olmak üzere sosyal, siyasi ve kültürel yapıdaki birçok değişimi barındırmaktadır. Teknolojik gelişmeler ile ortaya çıkan inovasyon süreci ise küresel çapta yaratılan fırsatlar ve beraberinde getirdiği tehditler ile bu Yeni Dünya Düzeninin sınırlarını çizmektedir. İnovasyonun etkilerinin yaratıcı mı yoksa yıkıcı mı olduğu üzerine farklı argümanlar ortaya atılmakla birlikte, etkilerinin daha çok öngörülemez olması bu konu hakkında fikir birliğine varmayı zorlaştırmaktadır. Bunun en iyi örneklerinden biri ise istihdam üzerindeki iki yönlü etkisidir. Nitekim ürün inovasyonunun verimliliği arttıracağı ve yeni iş kolları yaratarak işsizliği azaltacağı, süreç inovasyonunun ise hızla değişen teknolojiye karşı beceri, organizasyon ve teknolojiye adaptasyon eksikliği ile işsizliği arttıracağı genel kanısı hakimdir. Bu çalışmada küresel ekonomilerde inovasyonun yarattığı fırsatların yanı sıra, tehditlerin incelenmesi amacıyla Küresel İnovasyon Endeksi KİE ile işsizlik arasındaki ilişki İki Aşamalı Genelleştirilmiş Momentler GMM Tahmincisi kullanılarak test edilmiştir. Çalışmada KİEnin en yüksek olduğu ilk 25 ülkenin 2009-2021 yılları arası verileri kullanılmış olup, sonucunda toplam işsizlik ile brüt sermaye yatırımları ve kişi başına GSYİH oranı arasında negatif ve anlamlı, KİE ile toplam işsizlik arasında ise pozitif ve anlamlı bir ilişki bulunmuştur. Bu sonuç inovasyon sürecinin işsizliği arttırdığının bir kanıtıdır. Son olarak yapılan Granger panel nedensellik test sonuçlarına göre KİE ve brüt sermaye yatırımları ile toplam işsizlik arasında çift yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi olduğu tespit edilmiştir.

Makale detayları

Global Innovation Index-Unemployment Relationship: Findings from Panel GMM Analysis

Yazarlar:

Gürçem Özaytürk

Yayıncı:

Ahmet Arif EREN

Ana Başlıklar:

Makro İktisat (Diğer)

Dergi:

Politik Ekonomik Kuram Vol.7 Issue Özel Sayı, pp.108-120

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

10/2023

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001302888

pISSN:

2587-2567

Innovaton

unemployment

panel data analysisİnovasyon

işsizlik

panel veri analizi

Sayı

Makale detayları

Global Innovation Index-Unemployment Relationship: Findings from Panel GMM Analysis

Yazarlar: Gürçem Özaytürk

Yayıncı: Ahmet Arif EREN

Ana Başlıklar: Makro İktisat (Diğer)

Dergi: Politik Ekonomik Kuram Vol.7 Issue Özel Sayı, pp.108-120

Belge Tipi: Makale

Yayın Tarihi: 10/2023

Belge Dili: Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.): 2001302888

pISSN: 2587-2567

Innovaton

unemployment

panel data analysisİnovasyon

işsizlik

panel veri analizi

Sayı

Yazarlar:

Gürçem Özaytürk

Yayıncı:

Ahmet Arif EREN

Ana Başlıklar:

Makro İktisat (Diğer)

Dergi:

Politik Ekonomik Kuram Vol.7 Issue Özel Sayı, pp.108-120

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

10/2023

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001302888

pISSN:

2587-2567