DIPLOMATIC CRISES AND THE FOREIGN TRADE RELATIONSHIP: THE CASE OF TURKEY-SAUDI ARABIA USING THE ARDL BOUNDS TEST

Yusuf Bahadır Keskin; Hilal Şeker

Makale detayları

DIPLOMATIC CRISES AND THE FOREIGN TRADE RELATIONSHIP: THE CASE OF TURKEY-SAUDI ARABIA USING THE ARDL BOUNDS TEST

Yazarlar:

Yusuf Bahadır Keskin | Hilal Şeker

Yayıncı:

Dokuz Eylul University

Ana Başlıklar:

Makro İktisat (Diğer)

Dergi:

Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi Vol.27 Issue 3, pp.1205-1229

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

9/2025

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001345807

pISSN:

1308-0911

Anahtar kelimeler:

Özet:

 Diplomatic relations between countries have affected many macroeconomic variables such as foreign trade volumes, tourism revenues, exchange rates, inflation rates and capital flows of the partner countries throughout history and have become an increasingly important issue in the global integration process. There have been diplomatic crises in Turkish foreign policy at various times. Among these one of the prominent cases in the world public opinion is; the crisis between Turkiye and Saudi Arabia that started with the Arab Revolutions in 2010 and reached its peak after the murder of Jamal Khashoggi in 2018. The aim of the study is to reveal whether diplomatic tensions and crises affect the foreign trade volume between Turkiye and Saudi Arabia. For this purpose, the long and short-term relationships between foreign trade volume and diplomatic crisis, consumer price index, real effective exchange rate and industrial production index in the case of Turkiye and Saudi Arabia were tested with the ARDL Autoregressive Distrubuted Lag bounds test for the period 2014:M1-2023:M6 has been attempted to be revealed. As expected, the findings indicate that diplomatic crises narrow the foreign trade volumes between Turkiye and Saudi Arabia and damage the relations.

 Diplomatic relations between countries have affected many macroeconomic variables such as foreign trade volumes, tourism revenues, exchange rates, inflation rates and capital flows of the partner countries throughout history and have become an increasingly important issue in the global integration process. There have been diplomatic crises in Turkish foreign policy at various times. Among these one of the prominent cases in the world public opinion is; the crisis between Turkiye and Saudi Arabia that started with the Arab Revolutions in 2010 and reached its peak after the murder of Jamal Khashoggi in 2018. The aim of the study is to reveal whether diplomatic tensions and crises affect the foreign trade volume between Turkiye and Saudi Arabia. For this purpose, the long and short-term relationships between foreign trade volume and diplomatic crisis, consumer price index, real effective exchange rate and industrial production index in the case of Turkiye and Saudi Arabia were tested with the ARDL Autoregressive Distrubuted Lag bounds test for the period 2014:M1-2023:M6 has been attempted to be revealed. As expected, the findings indicate that diplomatic crises narrow the foreign trade volumes between Turkiye and Saudi Arabia and damage the relations.

 Diplomatic relations between countries have affected many macroeconomic variables such as foreign trade volumes, tourism revenues, exchange rates, inflation rates and capital flows of the partner countries throughout history and have become an increasingly important issue in the global integration process. There have been diplomatic crises in Turkish foreign policy at various times. Among these one of the prominent cases in the world public opinion is; the crisis between Turkiye and Saudi Arabia that started with the Arab Revolutions in 2010 and reached its peak after the murder of Jamal Khashoggi in 2018. The aim of the study is to reveal whether diplomatic tensions and crises affect the foreign trade volume between Turkiye and Saudi Arabia. For this purpose, the long and short-term relationships between foreign trade volume and diplomatic crisis, consumer price index, real effective exchange rate and industrial production index in the case of Turkiye and Saudi Arabia were tested with the ARDL Autoregressive Distrubuted Lag bounds test for the period 2014:M1-2023:M6 has been attempted to be revealed. As expected, the findings indicate that diplomatic crises narrow the foreign trade volumes between Turkiye and Saudi Arabia and damage the relations.

 Ülkeler arasındaki diplomatik ilişkiler, tarih boyunca taraf ülkelerin dış ticaret hacimleri, turizm gelirleri, döviz kurları, enflasyon oranları ve sermaye akımları gibi birçok makroekonomik değişkeni etkilemiş ve küresel entegrasyon sürecinde önemi giderek artan bir konu haline gelmiştir. Türk dış politikasında çeşitli dönemlerde diplomatik krizler yaşanmıştır. Bunlar arasında dünya kamuoyunda öne çıkan vakalardan biri de; 2010 yılında Arap Devrimleri ile başlayan ve 2018 yılında Cemal Kaşıkçı cinayeti sonrası zirveye ulaşan Türkiye-Suudi Arabistan krizidir. Çalışmanın amacı, diplomatik gerilim ve krizlerin Türkiye ile Suudi Arabistan arasındaki dış ticaret hacmini etkileyip etkilemediğini ortaya koymaktır. Bu amaçla Türkiye ve Suudi Arabistan örneğinde dış ticaret hacmi ile diplomatik kriz, tüketici fiyat endeksi, reel efektif döviz kuru ve sanayi üretim endeksi arasındaki uzun ve kısa dönemli ilişkiler 2014:M1-2023:M6 dönemi için ARDL Distributed Autoregressive bounds testi ile test edilerek ortaya konulmaya çalışılmıştır. Bulgular, beklendiği gibi, diplomatik krizlerin Türkiye ve Suudi Arabistan arasındaki dış ticaret hacmini daralttığına ve ilişkilere zarar verdiğine işaret etmektedir.

Makale detayları

DIPLOMATIC CRISES AND THE FOREIGN TRADE RELATIONSHIP: THE CASE OF TURKEY-SAUDI ARABIA USING THE ARDL BOUNDS TEST

Yazarlar:

Yusuf Bahadır Keskin | Hilal Şeker

Yayıncı:

Dokuz Eylul University

Ana Başlıklar:

Makro İktisat (Diğer)

Dergi:

Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi Vol.27 Issue 3, pp.1205-1229

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

9/2025

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001345807

pISSN:

1308-0911

Diplomatic Crisis

Foreign Trade Volume

ARDL

Turkiye

Saudi ArabiaDiplomatik Kriz

Dış Ticaret Hacmi

ARDL

Türkiye

Suudi Arabistan

Sayı

Makale detayları

Yazarlar: Yusuf Bahadır Keskin | Hilal Şeker

Yayıncı: Dokuz Eylul University

Ana Başlıklar: Makro İktisat (Diğer)

Dergi: Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi Vol.27 Issue 3, pp.1205-1229

Belge Tipi: Makale

Yayın Tarihi: 9/2025

Belge Dili: Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.): 2001345807

pISSN: 1308-0911

Sayı

Yazarlar:

Yusuf Bahadır Keskin | Hilal Şeker

Yayıncı:

Dokuz Eylul University

Ana Başlıklar:

Makro İktisat (Diğer)

Dergi:

Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi Vol.27 Issue 3, pp.1205-1229

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

9/2025

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001345807

pISSN:

1308-0911