UNIT ROOT ANALYSIS WITH TIME SERIES COMPARISON: AN EXAMINATION OF THE CONSUMPTION-INCOME RATIO IN BRICS-T COUNTRIES

Seniha Baylan; Cahit Aydemir

Makale detayları

UNIT ROOT ANALYSIS WITH TIME SERIES COMPARISON: AN EXAMINATION OF THE CONSUMPTION-INCOME RATIO IN BRICS-T COUNTRIES

Yazarlar:

Seniha Baylan | Cahit Aydemir

Yayıncı:

Duzce University

Ana Başlıklar:

Politika ve Yönetim (Diğer)

Dergi:

Düzce Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi Vol.15 Issue 1, pp.36-50

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

7/2025

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001355995

pISSN:

2146-5975

Anahtar kelimeler:

Özet:

 In this study, the stationarity of the Average Propensity to Consume  APC  series for BRICS-T countries were examined within the scope of time series analysis for each country individually over the period 1990-2023. For this purpose, ADF, PP and two LS unit root test with two structural breaks were employed. According to the results obtained from the LS unit root test, the consumption-income series for Brazil, Russia, China and South Africa, is found to be stationary, indicating that the APC series will remain stable or converge to a stable level in the long run. This suggests that shocks in these countries will not have permanent effects. On the other hand, the LS test results for India and Turkiye show that the series are non-stationary, suggesting that shocks in these countries will have lasting impacts on the consumption-income ratio.

 In this study, the stationarity of the Average Propensity to Consume  APC  series for BRICS-T countries were examined within the scope of time series analysis for each country individually over the period 1990-2023. For this purpose, ADF, PP and two LS unit root test with two structural breaks were employed. According to the results obtained from the LS unit root test, the consumption-income series for Brazil, Russia, China and South Africa, is found to be stationary, indicating that the APC series will remain stable or converge to a stable level in the long run. This suggests that shocks in these countries will not have permanent effects. On the other hand, the LS test results for India and Turkiye show that the series are non-stationary, suggesting that shocks in these countries will have lasting impacts on the consumption-income ratio.

 In this study, the stationarity of the Average Propensity to Consume  APC  series for BRICS-T countries were examined within the scope of time series analysis for each country individually over the period 1990-2023. For this purpose, ADF, PP and two LS unit root test with two structural breaks were employed. According to the results obtained from the LS unit root test, the consumption-income series for Brazil, Russia, China and South Africa, is found to be stationary, indicating that the APC series will remain stable or converge to a stable level in the long run. This suggests that shocks in these countries will not have permanent effects. On the other hand, the LS test results for India and Turkiye show that the series are non-stationary, suggesting that shocks in these countries will have lasting impacts on the consumption-income ratio.

 Bu çalışmada, 1990-2023 dönemi için BRICS-T ülkelerine ait APC  Average Propensity to Consume-Ortalama Türketim Eğilimi  serilerinin durağanlık durumu, her bir ülke özelinde zaman serileri analizi kapsamında incelenmiştir. Bu amaç doğrultusunda ADF, PP ve iki kırılmalı LS birim kök testleri kullanılmıştır. Kullanılan LS birim kök testinden elde edilen bulgulara göre; Brezilya, Rusya, Çin ve Güney Afrika için, tüketim-gelir serisinin durağan olduğunu ve dolayısıyla APC serisinin uzun dönemde sabit ya da sabite yakınsayacağı, bu bağlamda söz konusu ülkelerde şokların kalıcı bir etki gösteremeyeceğini ifade etmektedir. Öte yandan, Hindistan ve Türkiye için elde edilen LS test sonuçları ise, söz konusu serilerin durağan olmadığını işaret etmekte ve şokların bu ülkelerde tüketim-gelir oranında kalıcı etkiler yaratacağını ortaya koymaktadır.

Makale detayları

UNIT ROOT ANALYSIS WITH TIME SERIES COMPARISON: AN EXAMINATION OF THE CONSUMPTION-INCOME RATIO IN BRICS-T COUNTRIES

Yazarlar:

Seniha Baylan | Cahit Aydemir

Yayıncı:

Duzce University

Ana Başlıklar:

Politika ve Yönetim (Diğer)

Dergi:

Düzce Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi Vol.15 Issue 1, pp.36-50

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

7/2025

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001355995

pISSN:

2146-5975

unit root

stationarity

time series

apcbirim kök

durağanlık

zaman serileri

apc

Sayı

Makale detayları

Yazarlar: Seniha Baylan | Cahit Aydemir

Yayıncı: Duzce University

Ana Başlıklar: Politika ve Yönetim (Diğer)

Dergi: Düzce Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi Vol.15 Issue 1, pp.36-50

Belge Tipi: Makale

Yayın Tarihi: 7/2025

Belge Dili: Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.): 2001355995

pISSN: 2146-5975

Sayı

Yazarlar:

Seniha Baylan | Cahit Aydemir

Yayıncı:

Duzce University

Ana Başlıklar:

Politika ve Yönetim (Diğer)

Dergi:

Düzce Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi Vol.15 Issue 1, pp.36-50

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

7/2025

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001355995

pISSN:

2146-5975