ANALYSIS OF DIFFERENT DIMENSIONS OF UNEMPLOYMENT HYSTERIA IN TÜRKİYE WITH TRADITIONAL AND FOURIER TESTS

Ali Rauf Karataş

Makale detayları

ANALYSIS OF DIFFERENT DIMENSIONS OF UNEMPLOYMENT HYSTERIA IN TÜRKİYE WITH TRADITIONAL AND FOURIER TESTS

Yazarlar:

Ali Rauf Karataş

Yayıncı:

Dicle University

Ana Başlıklar:

İstihdam

Dergi:

Dicle Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi Vol.14 Issue 27, pp.453-473

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

5/2024

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001314507

pISSN:

1309-4602

Anahtar kelimeler:

Özet:

 The high unemployment rates experienced globally after the Great Depression made unemployment one of the most important problems of macroeconomics. After the oil shocks in the 1970s, the idea that temporary shocks in the economy may have permanent effects on unemployment rates gave rise to the unemployment hysteresis hypothesis, which emerged as an alternative to the classical macroeconomic prediction. Using monthly data for the period 2014:M1-2023:M8, this study tests the unemployment hysteresis hypothesis in Türkiye with Augmented DickeyFuller ADF, Fourier Augmented DickeyFuller FADF and Fractional Frequency FADF unit root tests with four different dimensions: Unemployment rate, combined rate of time-related underemployment and unemployment, combined rate of unemployment and potential labour force and composite measure of labour underutilization. According to the results of traditional and structural break unit root tests, robust evidence is found to support the unemployment hysteresis hypothesis. Accordingly, deviations in unemployment rates in Türkiye are becoming persistent and therefore, unemployment is still an important structural problem for the Turkish economy.

 The high unemployment rates experienced globally after the Great Depression made unemployment one of the most important problems of macroeconomics. After the oil shocks in the 1970s, the idea that temporary shocks in the economy may have permanent effects on unemployment rates gave rise to the unemployment hysteresis hypothesis, which emerged as an alternative to the classical macroeconomic prediction. Using monthly data for the period 2014:M1-2023:M8, this study tests the unemployment hysteresis hypothesis in Türkiye with Augmented DickeyFuller ADF, Fourier Augmented DickeyFuller FADF and Fractional Frequency FADF unit root tests with four different dimensions: Unemployment rate, combined rate of time-related underemployment and unemployment, combined rate of unemployment and potential labour force and composite measure of labour underutilization. According to the results of traditional and structural break unit root tests, robust evidence is found to support the unemployment hysteresis hypothesis. Accordingly, deviations in unemployment rates in Türkiye are becoming persistent and therefore, unemployment is still an important structural problem for the Turkish economy.

 The high unemployment rates experienced globally after the Great Depression made unemployment one of the most important problems of macroeconomics. After the oil shocks in the 1970s, the idea that temporary shocks in the economy may have permanent effects on unemployment rates gave rise to the unemployment hysteresis hypothesis, which emerged as an alternative to the classical macroeconomic prediction. Using monthly data for the period 2014:M1-2023:M8, this study tests the unemployment hysteresis hypothesis in Türkiye with Augmented DickeyFuller ADF, Fourier Augmented DickeyFuller FADF and Fractional Frequency FADF unit root tests with four different dimensions: Unemployment rate, combined rate of time-related underemployment and unemployment, combined rate of unemployment and potential labour force and composite measure of labour underutilization. According to the results of traditional and structural break unit root tests, robust evidence is found to support the unemployment hysteresis hypothesis. Accordingly, deviations in unemployment rates in Türkiye are becoming persistent and therefore, unemployment is still an important structural problem for the Turkish economy.

 Büyük Buhran sonrası küresel ölçekte tecrübe edilen yüksek işsizlik oranları, işsizlik olgusunu makroekonominin önemli sorunlarından biri haline getirmiştir. 1970li yıllardaki petrol şokları sonrasında ise ekonomideki geçici şokların işsizlik oranları üzerinde kalıcı etkilere sebep olabileceği fikri, işsizlik histerisi hipotezini doğurmuş ve söz konusu hipotez klasik makro iktisadi öngörüye bir alternatif olarak ortaya çıkmıştır. Bu çalışma, 2014:1-2023:8 dönemi aylık verilerini kullanarak, Türkiyede işsizlik histerisi hipotezini; işsizlik oranı, zamana bağlı eksik istihdam ve işsizlerin bütünleşik oranı, işsiz ve potansiyel işgücünün bütünleşik oranı ve atıl işgücü oranı olmak üzere dört farklı boyutuyla Genişletilmiş Dickey-Fuller ADF, Fourier Genişletilmiş Dickey-Fuller FADF ve Kesirli Frekanslı FADF birim kök testleri ile sınamıştır. Geleneksel ve yapısal kırılmaları dikkate alan birim kök testleri sonuçlarına göre işsizlik histerisi hipotezini destekleyen güçlü kanıtlara ulaşılmıştır. Buna göre Türkiyede işsizlik oranlarındaki sapmalar kalıcı hale gelmekte ve bu sebeple işsizlik, ülke ekonomisi için halen önemli bir yapısal sorun olarak gözükmektedir.

Makale detayları

ANALYSIS OF DIFFERENT DIMENSIONS OF UNEMPLOYMENT HYSTERIA IN TÜRKİYE WITH TRADITIONAL AND FOURIER TESTS

Yazarlar:

Ali Rauf Karataş

Yayıncı:

Dicle University

Ana Başlıklar:

İstihdam

Dergi:

Dicle Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi Vol.14 Issue 27, pp.453-473

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

5/2024

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001314507

pISSN:

1309-4602

Unemployment

Unemployment Hysteresis

Unit Root Tests

Structural Breaksİşsizlik

İşsizlik Histerisi

Birim Kök Testleri

Yapısal Kırılmalar

Sayı

Makale detayları

Yazarlar: Ali Rauf Karataş

Yayıncı: Dicle University

Ana Başlıklar: İstihdam

Dergi: Dicle Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi Vol.14 Issue 27, pp.453-473

Belge Tipi: Makale

Yayın Tarihi: 5/2024

Belge Dili: Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.): 2001314507

pISSN: 1309-4602

Sayı

Yazarlar:

Ali Rauf Karataş

Yayıncı:

Dicle University

Ana Başlıklar:

İstihdam

Dergi:

Dicle Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi Vol.14 Issue 27, pp.453-473

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

5/2024

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001314507

pISSN:

1309-4602