Statistical Modelling of Home Advantage and Away Disadvantage of Turkish Super League Teams

Umit Kuvvetli; Özgül Vupa Çilengiroğlu

Makale detayları

Statistical Modelling of Home Advantage and Away Disadvantage of Turkish Super League Teams

Yazarlar:

Umit Kuvvetli | Özgül Vupa Çilengiroğlu

Yayıncı:

Gazi University

Ana Başlıklar:

Sports Science and Exercise (Other)

Dergi:

Gazi Journal of Physical Education and Sport Sciences Vol.28 Issue 3, pp.206-214

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

7/2023

Belge Dili:

İngilizce

Document ID (Org No.):

2001293660

pISSN:

2717-9966

Anahtar kelimeler:

Özet:

 It is a fact that for all sports branches, being home or away is one of the most critical factors influencing the outcome of the game. Although there are many studies on Home Advantage HA, most of these studies have been made specifically for leagues as a whole, and the number of studies examining HA at the team level is quite limited. In this study, the HA and away disadvantage AD values were calculated, using Poisson regression, for each team played at least 3 seasons in the Turkish Super League between 20002001 and 20212022 seasons, based on the goals they scored and conceded in their home and away matches. According to the results of the study, 32 of the 34 teams included in the analysis were found to have a home advantage that statistically varied between 56.2 and 81.8. Evaluations using AD determined that AD values ranged between 46.7 and 65.4 and only 9 teams did not have an away disadvantage in the league. However, the results of the study indicated that the main factor determining the ranking in the league is the away disadvantage of the teams. The reason why the teams have different HA and AD values can be shown as the effect of the spectators, and different game tactics applied in home and away matches.

 It is a fact that for all sports branches, being home or away is one of the most critical factors influencing the outcome of the game. Although there are many studies on Home Advantage HA, most of these studies have been made specifically for leagues as a whole, and the number of studies examining HA at the team level is quite limited. In this study, the HA and away disadvantage AD values were calculated, using Poisson regression, for each team played at least 3 seasons in the Turkish Super League between 20002001 and 20212022 seasons, based on the goals they scored and conceded in their home and away matches. According to the results of the study, 32 of the 34 teams included in the analysis were found to have a home advantage that statistically varied between 56.2 and 81.8. Evaluations using AD determined that AD values ranged between 46.7 and 65.4 and only 9 teams did not have an away disadvantage in the league. However, the results of the study indicated that the main factor determining the ranking in the league is the away disadvantage of the teams. The reason why the teams have different HA and AD values can be shown as the effect of the spectators, and different game tactics applied in home and away matches.

 It is a fact that for all sports branches, being home or away is one of the most critical factors influencing the outcome of the game. Although there are many studies on Home Advantage HA, most of these studies have been made specifically for leagues as a whole, and the number of studies examining HA at the team level is quite limited. In this study, the HA and away disadvantage AD values were calculated, using Poisson regression, for each team played at least 3 seasons in the Turkish Super League between 20002001 and 20212022 seasons, based on the goals they scored and conceded in their home and away matches. According to the results of the study, 32 of the 34 teams included in the analysis were found to have a home advantage that statistically varied between 56.2 and 81.8. Evaluations using AD determined that AD values ranged between 46.7 and 65.4 and only 9 teams did not have an away disadvantage in the league. However, the results of the study indicated that the main factor determining the ranking in the league is the away disadvantage of the teams. The reason why the teams have different HA and AD values can be shown as the effect of the spectators, and different game tactics applied in home and away matches.

 Tüm spor dalları için ev sahibi olmanın HA veya deplasmanda AD olmanın sonucu etkileyen en önemli faktörlerden olduğu bir gerçektir. HA ile ilgili birçok çalışma olmasına rağmen, bu çalışmaların birçoğu ligler özelinde yapılmış olup, takım seviyesinde HA inceleyen çalışma sayısı oldukça sınırlıdır. Bu çalışmada, Poisson regresyon kullanılarak Türkiye Süper Liginde 20002001 ile 20212022 sezonları arasında en az 3 sezon yer alan takımların evlerinde ve deplasmanda oynadıkları maçlarda attıkları ve yedikleri gol sayıları üzerinden, takım özelinde HA ve AD değerleri hesaplanmıştır. Çalışma sonuçlarına göre, analize dahil edilen 34 takımın 32 tanesinin istatistiksel olarak 56.2 ile 81.8 arasında değişen ev sahibi avantajına sahip olduğu bulunmuştur. AD açısından değerlendirildiğinde ise, AD değerlerinin 46.7 ile 65.4 arasında değişmekte olduğu ve sadece 9 takımın deplasman dezavantajına sahip olmadığı tespit edilmiştir. Bununla birlikte, çalışma sonuçları ligde sıralamayı belirleyen esas faktörün takımların deplasman dezavantajı performansı olduğunu göstermiştir. Takımların farklı HA ve AD değerlerine sahip olmasının sebebi olarak seyirci avantajı, içeride ve dışarıda uygulanan farklı oyun taktikleri gibi faktörler gösterilebilir.

Makale detayları

Statistical Modelling of Home Advantage and Away Disadvantage of Turkish Super League Teams

Yazarlar:

Umit Kuvvetli | Özgül Vupa Çilengiroğlu

Yayıncı:

Gazi University

Ana Başlıklar:

Sports Science and Exercise (Other)

Dergi:

Gazi Journal of Physical Education and Sport Sciences Vol.28 Issue 3, pp.206-214

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

7/2023

Belge Dili:

İngilizce

Document ID (Org No.):

2001293660

pISSN:

2717-9966

Football

Home advantage

Away disadvantage

Turkish Super League

Generalized estimated Model

Poisson regressionFutbol

Ev sahibi avantajı

Deplasman dezavantajı

Türkiye Süper Ligi

Genelleştirilmiş tahmin modeli

Poisson regresyon

Sayı

Makale detayları

Yazarlar: Umit Kuvvetli | Özgül Vupa Çilengiroğlu

Yayıncı: Gazi University

Ana Başlıklar: Sports Science and Exercise (Other)

Dergi: Gazi Journal of Physical Education and Sport Sciences Vol.28 Issue 3, pp.206-214

Belge Tipi: Makale

Yayın Tarihi: 7/2023

Belge Dili: İngilizce

Document ID (Org No.): 2001293660

pISSN: 2717-9966

Sayı

Yazarlar:

Umit Kuvvetli | Özgül Vupa Çilengiroğlu

Yayıncı:

Gazi University

Ana Başlıklar:

Sports Science and Exercise (Other)

Dergi:

Gazi Journal of Physical Education and Sport Sciences Vol.28 Issue 3, pp.206-214

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

7/2023

Belge Dili:

İngilizce

Document ID (Org No.):

2001293660

pISSN:

2717-9966