Does Geopolitical Risk Affect Inflation? Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Palestine Events on Türkiye

Esra Soyu Yıldırım; Cuma Demirtaş

Makale detayları

Does Geopolitical Risk Affect Inflation? Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Palestine Events on Türkiye

Yazarlar:

Esra Soyu Yıldırım | Cuma Demirtaş

Yayıncı:

Ahmet Arif EREN

Ana Başlıklar:

Makro İktisat (Diğer) | Bölgesel Ekonomi | Politik Ekonomi

Dergi:

Politik Ekonomik Kuram Vol.9 Issue 1, pp.17-29

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

3/2025

Belge Dili:

İngilizce

Document ID (Org No.):

2001343485

pISSN:

2587-2567

Anahtar kelimeler:

Özet:

 Geopolitical risk stemming from negative events such as war, terrorist acts and tensions, together with economic and political uncertainty, has a negative impact on economic activity. Therefore, this study aims to examine the impact of geopolitical concerns originating from Russia and Israel on the inflation level in Türkiye in the time period from January 2003 to January 2024. To achieve this objective, the series undergoes wavelet transformation and an analysis is conducted to determine if there are variations in the short-term, medium-term, and long-term effects. To account for structural discontinuities in the series, the Fourier quantile causality test was initially conducted. However, as the Fourier function did not yield significant results, the quantile causality test was then done. The data indicate that in the original series, unidirectional causation occurs only at the 0.1 quantile. However, in the converted series, causality is detected at the 0.8 quantile in the short run and at the 0.1 and 0.6 quantiles in the long run. This indicates that the long-term effect of geopolitical risk and other factors on inflation has become more significant in Türkiye. In line with the findings, recommendations were presented to policy makers and researchers.

 Geopolitical risk stemming from negative events such as war, terrorist acts and tensions, together with economic and political uncertainty, has a negative impact on economic activity. Therefore, this study aims to examine the impact of geopolitical concerns originating from Russia and Israel on the inflation level in Türkiye in the time period from January 2003 to January 2024. To achieve this objective, the series undergoes wavelet transformation and an analysis is conducted to determine if there are variations in the short-term, medium-term, and long-term effects. To account for structural discontinuities in the series, the Fourier quantile causality test was initially conducted. However, as the Fourier function did not yield significant results, the quantile causality test was then done. The data indicate that in the original series, unidirectional causation occurs only at the 0.1 quantile. However, in the converted series, causality is detected at the 0.8 quantile in the short run and at the 0.1 and 0.6 quantiles in the long run. This indicates that the long-term effect of geopolitical risk and other factors on inflation has become more significant in Türkiye. In line with the findings, recommendations were presented to policy makers and researchers.

 Geopolitical risk stemming from negative events such as war, terrorist acts and tensions, together with economic and political uncertainty, has a negative impact on economic activity. Therefore, this study aims to examine the impact of geopolitical concerns originating from Russia and Israel on the inflation level in Türkiye in the time period from January 2003 to January 2024. To achieve this objective, the series undergoes wavelet transformation and an analysis is conducted to determine if there are variations in the short-term, medium-term, and long-term effects. To account for structural discontinuities in the series, the Fourier quantile causality test was initially conducted. However, as the Fourier function did not yield significant results, the quantile causality test was then done. The data indicate that in the original series, unidirectional causation occurs only at the 0.1 quantile. However, in the converted series, causality is detected at the 0.8 quantile in the short run and at the 0.1 and 0.6 quantiles in the long run. This indicates that the long-term effect of geopolitical risk and other factors on inflation has become more significant in Türkiye. In line with the findings, recommendations were presented to policy makers and researchers.

 Savaş, terör eylemleri ve gerginlikler gibi olumsuz olaylardan kaynaklanan jeopolitik risk ekonomik ve politik belirsizlikle birlikte, ekonomik aktivite üzerinde olumsuz bir etkiye sahip olmaktadır. Dolayısıyla bu çalışmada, Ocak 2003ten Ocak 2024e kadar olan zaman diliminde Rusya ve İsrail kaynaklı jeopolitik endişelerin Türkiyedeki enflasyon düzeyi üzerindeki etkisini incelemek amaçlanmıştır. Bu amaca ulaşmak için seriler dalgacık dönüşümüne tabi tutulmuş ve kısa vadeli, orta vadeli ve uzun vadeli etkilerde farklılıklar olup olmadığını belirlemek için bir analiz yapılmıştır. Serideki yapısal kesintileri hesaba katmak için öncelikle Fourier kantil nedensellik testi yapılmıştır. Ancak Fourier fonksiyonu anlamlı sonuçlar vermediğinden daha sonra kantil nedensellik testi yapılmıştır. Veriler, orijinal seride tek yönlü nedenselliğin yalnızca 0,1 kantilinde meydana geldiğini göstermektedir. Ancak dönüştürülen seride kısa vadede 0,8 kantilinde, uzun vadede ise 0,1 ve 0,6 kantillerinde nedensellik tespit edilmiştir. Bu durum, jeopolitik riskin ve diğer faktörlerin enflasyon üzerindeki uzun vadeli etkisinin Türkiyede daha anlamlı hale geldiğini göstermektedir. Elde edilen bulgular doğrultusunda politika yapıcılara ve araştırmacılara öneriler sunulmuştur.

Makale detayları

Does Geopolitical Risk Affect Inflation? Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Palestine Events on Türkiye

Yazarlar:

Esra Soyu Yıldırım | Cuma Demirtaş

Yayıncı:

Ahmet Arif EREN

Ana Başlıklar:

Makro İktisat (Diğer) | Bölgesel Ekonomi | Politik Ekonomi

Dergi:

Politik Ekonomik Kuram Vol.9 Issue 1, pp.17-29

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

3/2025

Belge Dili:

İngilizce

Document ID (Org No.):

2001343485

pISSN:

2587-2567

Geopolitical risk

ınflation

Quantile causality

russia

TürkiyeJeopolitik risk

Enflasyon

Kantil nedensellik

rusya

Türkiye

Sayı

Makale detayları

Yazarlar: Esra Soyu Yıldırım | Cuma Demirtaş

Yayıncı: Ahmet Arif EREN

Ana Başlıklar: Makro İktisat (Diğer) | Bölgesel Ekonomi | Politik Ekonomi

Dergi: Politik Ekonomik Kuram Vol.9 Issue 1, pp.17-29

Belge Tipi: Makale

Yayın Tarihi: 3/2025

Belge Dili: İngilizce

Document ID (Org No.): 2001343485

pISSN: 2587-2567

Sayı

Yazarlar:

Esra Soyu Yıldırım | Cuma Demirtaş

Yayıncı:

Ahmet Arif EREN

Ana Başlıklar:

Makro İktisat (Diğer) | Bölgesel Ekonomi | Politik Ekonomi

Dergi:

Politik Ekonomik Kuram Vol.9 Issue 1, pp.17-29

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

3/2025

Belge Dili:

İngilizce

Document ID (Org No.):

2001343485

pISSN:

2587-2567