TIME SERIES ANALYSIS OF CRITICAL RAW MATERIALS AND TECHNOLOGIES WITHIN THE SCOPE OF TWIN TRANSFORMATION

Halise Miray Say; Mahir Öner; Elifcan Göçmen Polat

Makale detayları

TIME SERIES ANALYSIS OF CRITICAL RAW MATERIALS AND TECHNOLOGIES WITHIN THE SCOPE OF TWIN TRANSFORMATION

Yazarlar:

Halise Miray Say | Mahir Öner | Elifcan Göçmen Polat

Yayıncı:

Marmara University

Ana Başlıklar:

İş Sistemleri (Diğer)

Dergi:

Journal of Research in Business Vol.9 Issue 2, pp.519-539

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

6/2024

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001332982

pISSN:

2630-6255

Anahtar kelimeler:

Özet:

 Critical raw materials are raw materials that are very important for a sustainable economy and carry high risks associated with their supply. The use of critical raw materials in the technologies used in the twin transformation, which combines the green transformation and the transformation of technology, increases the importance and supply risk of these raw materials. In this context, it is aimed to examine the technologies, practices and policies that pave the way for this transformation in the country and to examine them through time series analysis. Analysis of historical data and future projections of solar, wind, hydraulic, geothermal, and thermal energy, which have significant potential in our country for green transformation and are the source of most technologies that use critical raw materials, are presented. The time series analysis methods used in the study are simple moving average, weighted moving average and exponential moving average methods. Since the exponential moving average gives more weight to current data, it gives more positive results in terms of forecast success and error levels. Thus, the future trends of each energy source will reveal the demand level of raw materials used in technologies related to these energy sources and the criticality of these raw materials.

 Critical raw materials are raw materials that are very important for a sustainable economy and carry high risks associated with their supply. The use of critical raw materials in the technologies used in the twin transformation, which combines the green transformation and the transformation of technology, increases the importance and supply risk of these raw materials. In this context, it is aimed to examine the technologies, practices and policies that pave the way for this transformation in the country and to examine them through time series analysis. Analysis of historical data and future projections of solar, wind, hydraulic, geothermal, and thermal energy, which have significant potential in our country for green transformation and are the source of most technologies that use critical raw materials, are presented. The time series analysis methods used in the study are simple moving average, weighted moving average and exponential moving average methods. Since the exponential moving average gives more weight to current data, it gives more positive results in terms of forecast success and error levels. Thus, the future trends of each energy source will reveal the demand level of raw materials used in technologies related to these energy sources and the criticality of these raw materials.

 Critical raw materials are raw materials that are very important for a sustainable economy and carry high risks associated with their supply. The use of critical raw materials in the technologies used in the twin transformation, which combines the green transformation and the transformation of technology, increases the importance and supply risk of these raw materials. In this context, it is aimed to examine the technologies, practices and policies that pave the way for this transformation in the country and to examine them through time series analysis. Analysis of historical data and future projections of solar, wind, hydraulic, geothermal, and thermal energy, which have significant potential in our country for green transformation and are the source of most technologies that use critical raw materials, are presented. The time series analysis methods used in the study are simple moving average, weighted moving average and exponential moving average methods. Since the exponential moving average gives more weight to current data, it gives more positive results in terms of forecast success and error levels. Thus, the future trends of each energy source will reveal the demand level of raw materials used in technologies related to these energy sources and the criticality of these raw materials.

 Kritik hammaddeler, sürdürülebilir ekonomi için oldukça önemli ve tedarikleriyle bağlantılı olarak yüksek risk taşıyan hammaddelerdir. Yeşil dönüşüm ve teknolojinin dönüşümünü birleştiren ikiz dönüşümde kullanılan teknolojilerde kritik hammaddelerin kullanımı, bu hammaddelerin önemini ve arz riskini arttırmaktadır. Bu kapsamda, ülkede bu dönüşüme zemin hazırlayan teknolojilerin, uygulamaların ve politikaların incelenmesi ve zaman serileri analiziyle incelenmesi amaçlanmaktadır. Yeşil dönüşüm için ülkemizde önemli potansiyeli bulunan ve kritik hammaddelerin kullanıldığı çoğu teknolojinin de kaynağı olan güneş, rüzgâr, hidrolik, jeotermal, termik enerjinin geçmiş verilerinin analizi ve gelecek projeksiyonu sunulmaktadır. Çalışmada kullanılan zaman serileri analizi yöntemleri, basit hareketli ortalama, ağırlıklı hareketli ortalama ve üstel hareketli ortalama yöntemleridir. Üstel hareketli ortalama, güncel verilere daha fazla ağırlık verdiği için, tahmin başarısı ve hata düzeyleri konusunda daha olumlu sonuçlar vermektedir. Böylelikle, her enerji kaynağının gelecek trendleri, bu enerji kaynaklarıyla bağlantılı teknolojilerde kullanılan hammaddelerin talep düzeyi ve bu hammaddelerin kritikliğini de ortaya koyacaktır.

Makale detayları

TIME SERIES ANALYSIS OF CRITICAL RAW MATERIALS AND TECHNOLOGIES WITHIN THE SCOPE OF TWIN TRANSFORMATION

Yazarlar:

Halise Miray Say | Mahir Öner | Elifcan Göçmen Polat

Yayıncı:

Marmara University

Ana Başlıklar:

İş Sistemleri (Diğer)

Dergi:

Journal of Research in Business Vol.9 Issue 2, pp.519-539

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

6/2024

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001332982

pISSN:

2630-6255

Twin transformation

critical raw materials

sustainability

time series analysisİkiz dönüşüm

kritik hammaddeler

sürdürülebilirlik

zaman serileri analizi

Sayı

Makale detayları

Yazarlar: Halise Miray Say | Mahir Öner | Elifcan Göçmen Polat

Yayıncı: Marmara University

Ana Başlıklar: İş Sistemleri (Diğer)

Dergi: Journal of Research in Business Vol.9 Issue 2, pp.519-539

Belge Tipi: Makale

Yayın Tarihi: 6/2024

Belge Dili: Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.): 2001332982

pISSN: 2630-6255

Sayı

Yazarlar:

Halise Miray Say | Mahir Öner | Elifcan Göçmen Polat

Yayıncı:

Marmara University

Ana Başlıklar:

İş Sistemleri (Diğer)

Dergi:

Journal of Research in Business Vol.9 Issue 2, pp.519-539

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

6/2024

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001332982

pISSN:

2630-6255