Investigating the Role of Bias Correction Methods and Climate Models on Water Budget of Büyük Menderes Basin

Zülküf İbrahim Erkol; İrem Daloglu Çetinkaya

Makale detayları

Investigating the Role of Bias Correction Methods and Climate Models on Water Budget of Büyük Menderes Basin

Yazarlar:

Zülküf İbrahim Erkol | İrem Daloglu Çetinkaya

Yayıncı:

Sakarya University

Ana Başlıklar:

Environmental Sciences

Dergi:

Sakarya University Journal of Science Vol.27 Issue 5, pp.975-986

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

10/2023

Belge Dili:

İngilizce

Document ID (Org No.):

2001300438

pISSN:

2147-835X

Anahtar kelimeler:

Özet:

 Büyük Menderes Basin is one of the largest basins in Turkey, with almost half of the basin area utilized for agricultural purposes. The amount of water allocated to the agricultural areas in the basin corresponds to 80 of water use in the watershed. Hence, the impact of climate change on the water supply in the Büyük Menderes Basin will be significant for the basin. In this study, we model the effects of climate change on the water budget water supply and demand balance of the Büyük Menderes Basin using the Water and Evaluation and Planning WEAP tool. Future precipitation, temperature, and evaporation data for the basin are attained from outputs of the HadGEM2-ES global circulation model GCM, along with CNRM-CM5.1 and GFDL-ESM2M regional circulation models RCM for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Subsequently, the study applies different statistical bias correction methods Linear Scaling LS, Distribution Mapping DM, Local Precipitation Scaling PLIS, and Power Transformation of Precipitation PTP for raw outputs of GCMs and RCMs and analyzes the changes in outcomes of projected climate data and the impact of changes on the hydrology of the basin using the WEAP model. For this analysis, calibrated and validated WEAP model for the 12 reservoirs of Büyük Menderes Basin is used to understand the impact of different bias correction methods on reservoir levels.

 Büyük Menderes Basin is one of the largest basins in Turkey, with almost half of the basin area utilized for agricultural purposes. The amount of water allocated to the agricultural areas in the basin corresponds to 80 of water use in the watershed. Hence, the impact of climate change on the water supply in the Büyük Menderes Basin will be significant for the basin. In this study, we model the effects of climate change on the water budget water supply and demand balance of the Büyük Menderes Basin using the Water and Evaluation and Planning WEAP tool. Future precipitation, temperature, and evaporation data for the basin are attained from outputs of the HadGEM2-ES global circulation model GCM, along with CNRM-CM5.1 and GFDL-ESM2M regional circulation models RCM for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Subsequently, the study applies different statistical bias correction methods Linear Scaling LS, Distribution Mapping DM, Local Precipitation Scaling PLIS, and Power Transformation of Precipitation PTP for raw outputs of GCMs and RCMs and analyzes the changes in outcomes of projected climate data and the impact of changes on the hydrology of the basin using the WEAP model. For this analysis, calibrated and validated WEAP model for the 12 reservoirs of Büyük Menderes Basin is used to understand the impact of different bias correction methods on reservoir levels.

 Büyük Menderes Basin is one of the largest basins in Turkey, with almost half of the basin area utilized for agricultural purposes. The amount of water allocated to the agricultural areas in the basin corresponds to 80 of water use in the watershed. Hence, the impact of climate change on the water supply in the Büyük Menderes Basin will be significant for the basin. In this study, we model the effects of climate change on the water budget water supply and demand balance of the Büyük Menderes Basin using the Water and Evaluation and Planning WEAP tool. Future precipitation, temperature, and evaporation data for the basin are attained from outputs of the HadGEM2-ES global circulation model GCM, along with CNRM-CM5.1 and GFDL-ESM2M regional circulation models RCM for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Subsequently, the study applies different statistical bias correction methods Linear Scaling LS, Distribution Mapping DM, Local Precipitation Scaling PLIS, and Power Transformation of Precipitation PTP for raw outputs of GCMs and RCMs and analyzes the changes in outcomes of projected climate data and the impact of changes on the hydrology of the basin using the WEAP model. For this analysis, calibrated and validated WEAP model for the 12 reservoirs of Büyük Menderes Basin is used to understand the impact of different bias correction methods on reservoir levels.

 Büyük Menderes Basin is one of the largest basins in Turkey, with almost half of the basin area utilized for agricultural purposes. The amount of water allocated to the agricultural areas in the basin corresponds to 80 of water use in the watershed. Hence, the impact of climate change on the water supply in the Büyük Menderes Basin will be significant for the basin. In this study, we model the effects of climate change on the water budget water supply and demand balance of the Büyük Menderes Basin using the Water and Evaluation and Planning WEAP tool. Future precipitation, temperature, and evaporation data for the basin are attained from outputs of the HadGEM2-ES global circulation model GCM, along with CNRM-CM5.1 and GFDL-ESM2M regional circulation models RCM for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Subsequently, the study applies different statistical bias correction methods Linear Scaling LS, Distribution Mapping DM, Local Precipitation Scaling PLIS, and Power Transformation of Precipitation PTP for raw outputs of GCMs and RCMs and analyzes the changes in outcomes of projected climate data and the impact of changes on the hydrology of the basin using the WEAP model. For this analysis, calibrated and validated WEAP model for the 12 reservoirs of Büyük Menderes Basin is used to understand the impact of different bias correction methods on reservoir levels.

Makale detayları

Investigating the Role of Bias Correction Methods and Climate Models on Water Budget of Büyük Menderes Basin

Yazarlar:

Zülküf İbrahim Erkol | İrem Daloglu Çetinkaya

Yayıncı:

Sakarya University

Ana Başlıklar:

Environmental Sciences

Dergi:

Sakarya University Journal of Science Vol.27 Issue 5, pp.975-986

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

10/2023

Belge Dili:

İngilizce

Document ID (Org No.):

2001300438

pISSN:

2147-835X

Büyük Menderes Basin

climate models

WEAP

bias correction methods

water budget

Sayı

Makale detayları

Investigating the Role of Bias Correction Methods and Climate Models on Water Budget of Büyük Menderes Basin

Yazarlar: Zülküf İbrahim Erkol | İrem Daloglu Çetinkaya

Yayıncı: Sakarya University

Ana Başlıklar: Environmental Sciences

Dergi: Sakarya University Journal of Science Vol.27 Issue 5, pp.975-986

Belge Tipi: Makale

Yayın Tarihi: 10/2023

Belge Dili: İngilizce

Document ID (Org No.): 2001300438

pISSN: 2147-835X

Büyük Menderes Basin

climate models

WEAP

bias correction methods

water budget

Sayı

Yazarlar:

Zülküf İbrahim Erkol | İrem Daloglu Çetinkaya

Yayıncı:

Sakarya University

Ana Başlıklar:

Environmental Sciences

Dergi:

Sakarya University Journal of Science Vol.27 Issue 5, pp.975-986

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

10/2023

Belge Dili:

İngilizce

Document ID (Org No.):

2001300438

pISSN:

2147-835X