Asymmetric Effects of Uncertanity on International Trade: An Empirical Investigation Based on The NARDL Model

Şekip Yazgan; Cihat Karademir; Reşat Ceylan

Makale detayları

Asymmetric Effects of Uncertanity on International Trade: An Empirical Investigation Based on The NARDL Model

Yazarlar:

Şekip Yazgan | Cihat Karademir | Reşat Ceylan

Yayıncı:

Ahmet Arif EREN

Ana Başlıklar:

Uluslararası İktisat (Diğer)

Dergi:

Fiscaoeconomia Vol.7 Issue 3, pp.2090-2109

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

9/2023

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001298457

pISSN:

2564-7504

Anahtar kelimeler:

Özet:

 Uncertainty leads to postponement of investments, increased savings, reduced consumption and, consequently, reduced international trade volume and economic slowdown. It is accepted that there is an asymmetric relationship between global uncertainty and international trade. In other words, an increase in uncertainty is expected to decrease the volume of global trade, while a decrease in uncertainty is expected to increase the volume of global trade. This situation is important in terms of the need to decompose the effects of positive and negative shocks on the volume of global trade. In this context, this study aims to investigate the relationship between global uncertainty and international trade over the period 1990:Q1-2022:Q2 using the World Uncertanity Index WUI and Baltic Dry Index BDI series, respectively. In the study, the long and short-run asymmetric relationships between these series are analyzed with the Non-Linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag NARDL approach. The results of the study show that there is an asymmetric relationship between the two variables analyzed in the analysis period and that decreases in the World Uncertainty Index have an increasing effect on the Baltic Dry Index.

 Uncertainty leads to postponement of investments, increased savings, reduced consumption and, consequently, reduced international trade volume and economic slowdown. It is accepted that there is an asymmetric relationship between global uncertainty and international trade. In other words, an increase in uncertainty is expected to decrease the volume of global trade, while a decrease in uncertainty is expected to increase the volume of global trade. This situation is important in terms of the need to decompose the effects of positive and negative shocks on the volume of global trade. In this context, this study aims to investigate the relationship between global uncertainty and international trade over the period 1990:Q1-2022:Q2 using the World Uncertanity Index WUI and Baltic Dry Index BDI series, respectively. In the study, the long and short-run asymmetric relationships between these series are analyzed with the Non-Linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag NARDL approach. The results of the study show that there is an asymmetric relationship between the two variables analyzed in the analysis period and that decreases in the World Uncertainty Index have an increasing effect on the Baltic Dry Index.

 Uncertainty leads to postponement of investments, increased savings, reduced consumption and, consequently, reduced international trade volume and economic slowdown. It is accepted that there is an asymmetric relationship between global uncertainty and international trade. In other words, an increase in uncertainty is expected to decrease the volume of global trade, while a decrease in uncertainty is expected to increase the volume of global trade. This situation is important in terms of the need to decompose the effects of positive and negative shocks on the volume of global trade. In this context, this study aims to investigate the relationship between global uncertainty and international trade over the period 1990:Q1-2022:Q2 using the World Uncertanity Index WUI and Baltic Dry Index BDI series, respectively. In the study, the long and short-run asymmetric relationships between these series are analyzed with the Non-Linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag NARDL approach. The results of the study show that there is an asymmetric relationship between the two variables analyzed in the analysis period and that decreases in the World Uncertainty Index have an increasing effect on the Baltic Dry Index.

 Belirsizlik, yatırımların ertelenmesine, tasarrufların artmasına, tüketimin azalmasına ve sonuç olarak da uluslararası ticaret hacmini azalmasına ve ekonomik yavaşlamaya yol açmaktadır. Küresel belirsizlik ve uluslararası ticaret arasında asimetrik bir ilişki olduğu kabul edilmektedir. Başka bir ifadeyle, belirsizliklerin artmasının küresel ticaret hacmini azaltması, belirsizliklerin azalmasının ise küresel ticaret hacmini artırması beklenmektedir. Bu durum, pozitif ve negatif şoklara karşı küresel ticaret hacminde oluşacak etkilerin ayrıştırılması gereğini ortaya koyması bakımından önem arz etmektedir. Bu kapsamda çalışmada, 1990:Q1-2022:Q2 döneminde küresel belirsizlik ve uluslararası ticaret arasındaki ilişkinin sırasıyla Dünya Belirsizlik Endeksi World Uncertanity Index-WUI ve Baltık Kuru Yük Endeksi Baltic Dry Index-BDI serileri üzerinden araştırılması amaçlanmaktadır. Çalışmada söz konusu seriler arasındaki uzun ve kısa dönemli asimetrik ilişkiler, doğrusal olmayan gecikmesi dağılmış otoregresif model Non-Linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag-NARDL yaklaşımıyla incelenmektedir. Çalışmada ulaşılan sonuçlar, inceleme döneminde analize konu olan iki değişken arasında asimetrik bir ilişkinin var olduğunu ve Dünya Belirsizlik Endeksinde meydana gelen azalışların Baltık Kuru Yük Endeksini artırıcı etki yarattığını göstermektedir.

Makale detayları

Asymmetric Effects of Uncertanity on International Trade: An Empirical Investigation Based on The NARDL Model

Yazarlar:

Şekip Yazgan | Cihat Karademir | Reşat Ceylan

Yayıncı:

Ahmet Arif EREN

Ana Başlıklar:

Uluslararası İktisat (Diğer)

Dergi:

Fiscaoeconomia Vol.7 Issue 3, pp.2090-2109

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

9/2023

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001298457

pISSN:

2564-7504

World Uncertanity Index

International Trade

NARDLDünya Belirsizlik Endeksi

Uluslararası Ticaret

NARDL.

Sayı

Makale detayları

Asymmetric Effects of Uncertanity on International Trade: An Empirical Investigation Based on The NARDL Model

Yazarlar: Şekip Yazgan | Cihat Karademir | Reşat Ceylan

Yayıncı: Ahmet Arif EREN

Ana Başlıklar: Uluslararası İktisat (Diğer)

Dergi: Fiscaoeconomia Vol.7 Issue 3, pp.2090-2109

Belge Tipi: Makale

Yayın Tarihi: 9/2023

Belge Dili: Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.): 2001298457

pISSN: 2564-7504

World Uncertanity Index

International Trade

NARDLDünya Belirsizlik Endeksi

Uluslararası Ticaret

NARDL.

Sayı

Yazarlar:

Şekip Yazgan | Cihat Karademir | Reşat Ceylan

Yayıncı:

Ahmet Arif EREN

Ana Başlıklar:

Uluslararası İktisat (Diğer)

Dergi:

Fiscaoeconomia Vol.7 Issue 3, pp.2090-2109

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

9/2023

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001298457

pISSN:

2564-7504