Analysis of Future Scenarios in Defense Planning Through Value-Focused Thinking Method

Ahmet Bengöz; Cevriye Gencer

Makale detayları

Analysis of Future Scenarios in Defense Planning Through Value-Focused Thinking Method

Yazarlar:

Ahmet Bengöz | Cevriye Gencer

Yayıncı:

Gazi University

Ana Başlıklar:

Çok Ölçütlü Karar Verme | Endüstri Mühendisliği

Dergi:

Politeknik Dergisi Vol.28 Issue 1, pp.59-66

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

1/2025

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001339505

pISSN:

2147-9429

Anahtar kelimeler:

Özet:

 Defense planning is one of the most complex decision problems found in the literature due to its inclusion of numerous decision-makers, stakeholders, policies, military forces, ongoing projects, evolving technologies, developments outside the realm of military power, and many other issues. In this study, a mathematical model that is easily understandable and applicable by decision-makers has been created for this complex problem. Possible future operational scenarios have been identified as alternatives using the Value-Focused Thinking VFT method based on the values of decision-makers by creating a hierarchy of criteria including the size, duration, environment, scope, and type of operation. These alternatives have emerged and been analyzed as Operations Against Equivalent Countries, Counter-Terrorism Operations, Support Operations for Friendly Countries, Joint Operations, NATO Operations, Embargo, Energy Crisis, Food Crisis, Drought, and Contagious Disease. Among these alternatives, Operations Against Equivalent Countries 0.74, Counter-Terrorism Operations 0.71, and Embargo 0.67 ranking have formed the top three scenarios by having the top scoring. Additionally, a graphical representation has been made of the probabilities of occurrence for the scenarios alternatives identified using VFT, as well as the potential impact levels of these scenarios. This representation forms the most crucial step in enabling decision-makers to make more effective, efficient, and economical decisions in defense planning. This study is of great importance as it represents the use of VFT for future-oriented scenario analysis in defense planning for the first time.

 Defense planning is one of the most complex decision problems found in the literature due to its inclusion of numerous decision-makers, stakeholders, policies, military forces, ongoing projects, evolving technologies, developments outside the realm of military power, and many other issues. In this study, a mathematical model that is easily understandable and applicable by decision-makers has been created for this complex problem. Possible future operational scenarios have been identified as alternatives using the Value-Focused Thinking VFT method based on the values of decision-makers by creating a hierarchy of criteria including the size, duration, environment, scope, and type of operation. These alternatives have emerged and been analyzed as Operations Against Equivalent Countries, Counter-Terrorism Operations, Support Operations for Friendly Countries, Joint Operations, NATO Operations, Embargo, Energy Crisis, Food Crisis, Drought, and Contagious Disease. Among these alternatives, Operations Against Equivalent Countries 0.74, Counter-Terrorism Operations 0.71, and Embargo 0.67 ranking have formed the top three scenarios by having the top scoring. Additionally, a graphical representation has been made of the probabilities of occurrence for the scenarios alternatives identified using VFT, as well as the potential impact levels of these scenarios. This representation forms the most crucial step in enabling decision-makers to make more effective, efficient, and economical decisions in defense planning. This study is of great importance as it represents the use of VFT for future-oriented scenario analysis in defense planning for the first time.

 Defense planning is one of the most complex decision problems found in the literature due to its inclusion of numerous decision-makers, stakeholders, policies, military forces, ongoing projects, evolving technologies, developments outside the realm of military power, and many other issues. In this study, a mathematical model that is easily understandable and applicable by decision-makers has been created for this complex problem. Possible future operational scenarios have been identified as alternatives using the Value-Focused Thinking VFT method based on the values of decision-makers by creating a hierarchy of criteria including the size, duration, environment, scope, and type of operation. These alternatives have emerged and been analyzed as Operations Against Equivalent Countries, Counter-Terrorism Operations, Support Operations for Friendly Countries, Joint Operations, NATO Operations, Embargo, Energy Crisis, Food Crisis, Drought, and Contagious Disease. Among these alternatives, Operations Against Equivalent Countries 0.74, Counter-Terrorism Operations 0.71, and Embargo 0.67 ranking have formed the top three scenarios by having the top scoring. Additionally, a graphical representation has been made of the probabilities of occurrence for the scenarios alternatives identified using VFT, as well as the potential impact levels of these scenarios. This representation forms the most crucial step in enabling decision-makers to make more effective, efficient, and economical decisions in defense planning. This study is of great importance as it represents the use of VFT for future-oriented scenario analysis in defense planning for the first time.

 Savunma planlama; çok sayıda karar verici, paydaş, politika, askeri güç, yürütülen projeler, gelişen teknolojiler, dünyadaki askeri güç dışında kalan gelişmeler ve daha birçok konuyu içermesi nedeniyle literatürde bulunan en kompleks karar problemlerinden biridir. Bu çalışmada, bu kompleks probleme yönelik olarak, karar vericiler tarafından kolayca anlaşılabilen, uygulanabilir, geleceğe yönelik muhtemel harekât senaryolarının karar vericilerin değerlerine göre Çok Amaçlı Karar Verme ÇAKV yöntemlerinden, Değer Odaklı Düşünme DOD yöntemi kullanılarak harekâtın boyutu, süresi, ortamı, çapı ve tipini içeren kriter hiyerarşisi ortaya konulmuş ve on alternatif senaryo belirlenmiştir. Bu alternatifler; Denk Ülkeye Karşı Harekât, Terörle Mücadele Harekâtı, Dost Ülkeye Destek Harekâtı, Müşterek Harekât, NATO Harekâtı, Ambargo, Enerji Krizi, Gıda Krizi, Kuraklık ve Bulaşıcı Hastalık olarak ortaya çıkmış ve analiz edilmiştir. Belirlenen alternatiflerden Denk Ülkeye Karşı Harekât 0.74, Terörle Mücadele Harekâtı 0.71 ve Ambargo 0.67 en yüksek puanlamayı elde ederek sıralamadaki ilk üç senaryoyu oluşturmuştur. Ayrıca DOD ile belirlenen senaryoların gerçekleşmesine yönelik olasılıklarla, bu senaryoların muhtemel etki derecelerinin grafiksel gösterimi yapılmıştır. Bu gösterim, karar vericilerin savunma planlamada daha etkin, verimli ve ekonomik kararlar almasında en önemli adımı oluşturmaktadır. Yapılan çalışma, DODnin savunma planlamada geleceğe yönelik senaryoların analizinde ilk defa kullanılması açısından oldukça önemlidir.

Makale detayları

Analysis of Future Scenarios in Defense Planning Through Value-Focused Thinking Method

Yazarlar:

Ahmet Bengöz | Cevriye Gencer

Yayıncı:

Gazi University

Ana Başlıklar:

Çok Ölçütlü Karar Verme | Endüstri Mühendisliği

Dergi:

Politeknik Dergisi Vol.28 Issue 1, pp.59-66

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

1/2025

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001339505

pISSN:

2147-9429

Value-Focused Thinking (VFT)

Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM)

Decision Support Systems

Decision Analysis

Scenario AnalysisDeğer Odaklı Düşünme (DOD)

Çok Amaçlı Karar Verme (ÇAKV)

Karar Sistemleri

Karar Analizi

Senaryo Analizi

Sayı

Makale detayları

Yazarlar: Ahmet Bengöz | Cevriye Gencer

Yayıncı: Gazi University

Ana Başlıklar: Çok Ölçütlü Karar Verme | Endüstri Mühendisliği

Dergi: Politeknik Dergisi Vol.28 Issue 1, pp.59-66

Belge Tipi: Makale

Yayın Tarihi: 1/2025

Belge Dili: Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.): 2001339505

pISSN: 2147-9429

Sayı

Yazarlar:

Ahmet Bengöz | Cevriye Gencer

Yayıncı:

Gazi University

Ana Başlıklar:

Çok Ölçütlü Karar Verme | Endüstri Mühendisliği

Dergi:

Politeknik Dergisi Vol.28 Issue 1, pp.59-66

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

1/2025

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001339505

pISSN:

2147-9429