Estimation of Milk and Dairy Products Production in Turkey with Seasonal ARIMA Model

Didem Doğar; Adnan Çiçek; Merve Ayyıldız

Makale detayları

Estimation of Milk and Dairy Products Production in Turkey with Seasonal ARIMA Model

Yazarlar:

Didem Doğar | Adnan Çiçek | Merve Ayyıldız

Yayıncı:

Mevlüt AKÇURA

Ana Başlıklar:

Agricultural Policy

Dergi:

Turkish Journal of Agricultural and Natural Sciences Vol.11 Issue 3, pp.642-653

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

7/2024

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001323703

pISSN:

2148-3647

Anahtar kelimeler:

Özet:

 Milk and dairy production is vital across several sectors, including maintaining supply-demand equilibrium, providing nutrition, facilitating national and international trade, and fostering rural development. Therefore, accurately forecasting production is crucial for the sustainability and progress of the milk and dairy products industry. This study utilizes seasonal ARIMA modeling to forecast milk and dairy production in Turkey for the upcoming 12 months of 2024, utilizing 156 months of production data from 2010-2023. Rigorous model selection processes, guided by fundamental assumptions and methodological steps, identify the most suitable model for interpreting monthly production data. The reliability and consistency of this model are validated through assessments based on various statistical criteria such as MAPE, MAE, RMSE, BIC, among others. The findings indicate that despite anticipated seasonal fluctuations in 2024, the upward trend in milk and dairy production, excluding cream, is expected to continue. Comparative analysis with long-term monthly averages reveals potential increases of 18-24 in collected cow milk and 12-24 in drinking milk production. Additionally, long-term projections foresee a rise of 27-50 in ayran production and 9-17 in yogurt production. Butter production is anticipated to surge by 52-71, while cream production is expected to decline by approximately 5-29. Despite projections for 2024 indicating a growth trend surpassing global averages in milk and dairy production, informalities pose significant obstacles to sectoral development. Thus, the formulation of policies encouraging investments in the dairy industry emerges as a critical strategy for sectoral advancement.

 Milk and dairy production is vital across several sectors, including maintaining supply-demand equilibrium, providing nutrition, facilitating national and international trade, and fostering rural development. Therefore, accurately forecasting production is crucial for the sustainability and progress of the milk and dairy products industry. This study utilizes seasonal ARIMA modeling to forecast milk and dairy production in Turkey for the upcoming 12 months of 2024, utilizing 156 months of production data from 2010-2023. Rigorous model selection processes, guided by fundamental assumptions and methodological steps, identify the most suitable model for interpreting monthly production data. The reliability and consistency of this model are validated through assessments based on various statistical criteria such as MAPE, MAE, RMSE, BIC, among others. The findings indicate that despite anticipated seasonal fluctuations in 2024, the upward trend in milk and dairy production, excluding cream, is expected to continue. Comparative analysis with long-term monthly averages reveals potential increases of 18-24 in collected cow milk and 12-24 in drinking milk production. Additionally, long-term projections foresee a rise of 27-50 in ayran production and 9-17 in yogurt production. Butter production is anticipated to surge by 52-71, while cream production is expected to decline by approximately 5-29. Despite projections for 2024 indicating a growth trend surpassing global averages in milk and dairy production, informalities pose significant obstacles to sectoral development. Thus, the formulation of policies encouraging investments in the dairy industry emerges as a critical strategy for sectoral advancement.

 Milk and dairy production is vital across several sectors, including maintaining supply-demand equilibrium, providing nutrition, facilitating national and international trade, and fostering rural development. Therefore, accurately forecasting production is crucial for the sustainability and progress of the milk and dairy products industry. This study utilizes seasonal ARIMA modeling to forecast milk and dairy production in Turkey for the upcoming 12 months of 2024, utilizing 156 months of production data from 2010-2023. Rigorous model selection processes, guided by fundamental assumptions and methodological steps, identify the most suitable model for interpreting monthly production data. The reliability and consistency of this model are validated through assessments based on various statistical criteria such as MAPE, MAE, RMSE, BIC, among others. The findings indicate that despite anticipated seasonal fluctuations in 2024, the upward trend in milk and dairy production, excluding cream, is expected to continue. Comparative analysis with long-term monthly averages reveals potential increases of 18-24 in collected cow milk and 12-24 in drinking milk production. Additionally, long-term projections foresee a rise of 27-50 in ayran production and 9-17 in yogurt production. Butter production is anticipated to surge by 52-71, while cream production is expected to decline by approximately 5-29. Despite projections for 2024 indicating a growth trend surpassing global averages in milk and dairy production, informalities pose significant obstacles to sectoral development. Thus, the formulation of policies encouraging investments in the dairy industry emerges as a critical strategy for sectoral advancement.

 Süt ve süt ürünleri üretimi, arz talep dengesi, beslenme, ulusal ve uluslararası ticaret, kırsal kalkınma vs. birçok açıdan önemlidir. Bu nedenle, süt ve süt ürünleri sektörünün devamlılığı ve gelişimi için üretim projeksiyonlarına ihtiyaç duyulmaktadır. Çalışmada, 2010- 2023 dönemini kapsayan 156 aylık süt ve süt ürünleri üretim verileri kullanılarak Türkiye için 2024 yılı gelecek 12 aya yönelik mevsimsel ARIMA modeli ile tahminler yapılmıştır. Modeller sonucunda en uygun modelin belirlenmesinde temel varsayım ve adımlar izlenerek, aylık süt ve süt ürünleri üretim verilerini en iyi açıklayan modelin analiz sonuçlarının MAPE, MAE, RMSE, Normalize BIC ve diğer istatistiki hata değerlendirme ölçütlerine göre güvenilir ve tutarlı olduğu belirlenmiştir. Elde edilen bulgulara göre, 2024 yılında mevsimsel dalgalanmalar olmakla beraber kaymak üretimi dışında diğer süt ve süt ürünleri üretiminde artış trendinin devam edeceği belirlenmiştir. Uzun dönem aylık ortalama veriler ile karşılaştırıldığında toplanan inek sütünde 18-24 arasındaki olası artışın, içme sütü üretiminde 12-24 arasında olacağı tahmin edilmiştir. Ayran üretiminin ise uzun dönem verilerine göre 27-50 oranında, yoğurt üretimin ise 9-17 oranında artacağı saptanmıştır. Tereyağı üretiminde uzun dönem verilerine göre 52-71 oranında artacağı, kaymak üretiminin ise yaklaşık 5-29 oranında azalacağı öngörülmektedir. 2024 yılı için elde edilen bulgulara göre dünya ortalamasının üzerinde süt ve süt ürünleri üretiminin artacağı öngörülse de kayıt dışılığın sektörün gelişiminde önemli bir engel olduğu görülmektedir. Bu bağlamda süt sanayine yatırım teşvik edici politikalar geliştirilmesi sektörün gelişimi açısından önemli görülmektedir.

Makale detayları

Estimation of Milk and Dairy Products Production in Turkey with Seasonal ARIMA Model

Yazarlar:

Didem Doğar | Adnan Çiçek | Merve Ayyıldız

Yayıncı:

Mevlüt AKÇURA

Ana Başlıklar:

Agricultural Policy

Dergi:

Turkish Journal of Agricultural and Natural Sciences Vol.11 Issue 3, pp.642-653

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

7/2024

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001323703

pISSN:

2148-3647

Milk production

dairy products production

seasonal ARIMA model

Türkiye.Süt üretimi

süt ürünleri üretimi

mevsimsel ARIMA modeli

Türkiye.

Sayı

Makale detayları

Yazarlar: Didem Doğar | Adnan Çiçek | Merve Ayyıldız

Yayıncı: Mevlüt AKÇURA

Ana Başlıklar: Agricultural Policy

Dergi: Turkish Journal of Agricultural and Natural Sciences Vol.11 Issue 3, pp.642-653

Belge Tipi: Makale

Yayın Tarihi: 7/2024

Belge Dili: Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.): 2001323703

pISSN: 2148-3647

Sayı

Yazarlar:

Didem Doğar | Adnan Çiçek | Merve Ayyıldız

Yayıncı:

Mevlüt AKÇURA

Ana Başlıklar:

Agricultural Policy

Dergi:

Turkish Journal of Agricultural and Natural Sciences Vol.11 Issue 3, pp.642-653

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

7/2024

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001323703

pISSN:

2148-3647